2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[dailylurker]

Classic stormy summer night vibe out there. It's hot, humid, lighting flashes in the sky, crickets, lightning bugs, ect. Radar is lit up like it's Christmas tree.

[nj2va]

45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 00z balloon from IAD shows only 600 j/kg of SBCAPE. This is in no way a "classic" severe weather sounding.

It’s pouring. I don’t care there’s not a tornado rolling through ripping my roof off. 

[ravensrule]

Getting destroyed now with SUPER HEAVY rain, winds and T&L. 

[ravensrule]

Give me a power outage and EJ will be happy. 

[nj2va]

I guess the Euro was wrong. 

[yoda]

Looks like the weekend is our next threat window to watch

[WxUSAF]

41 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the weekend is our next threat window to watch

Globals all skip over most of us. It’s kinda impressive how they miss us TBH.

[yoda]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Globals all skip over most of us. It’s kinda impressive how they miss us TBH.

Interesting... 06z NAM throws up some decent soundings in the area late Saturday suggesting an isolated tornado threat

[osfan24]

10 hours ago, nj2va said:

So the early bust calls didn’t pan out?

Did for me. Woke up with almost nothing in the rain gauge. Not good.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Globals all skip over most of us. It’s kinda impressive how they miss us TBH.

If we miss this weekend it’ll especially hurt since that is a very dry airmass coming in Monday-Wednesday.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Give me a power outage and EJ will be happy. 

Naw i just want rain. Only M0.15" overnight.

[high risk]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Globals all skip over most of us. It’s kinda impressive how they miss us TBH.

        The timing of the front looks awful.   We need it to slow down, as a Sunday morning frontal passage won't bring the goods, and we'll watch things like up for the beaches of MD/DE/southeast VA.      Our best hope is that there are indications of a modest lead shortwave Saturday evening.   Organized storms may fire Saturday afternoon to our west/northwest and roll through during the evening.

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 hours ago, nj2va said:

I guess the Euro was wrong. 

It was way overdone for me.

[yoda]

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe

LWX AFD from this afternoon says Saturday is concerning 

Saturday is where things really start to get interesting. That
warm front that was mentioned earlier will lift north through
the region throughout the morning into the afternoon hours.
Looking aloft, the upper trough is centered well to our north,
but there does appear to be a piece of shortwave energy that
will slide by near/north of our area. This will be where things
get tricky as that interacts with the warm front itself.

Getting back to our area, how does this impact us locally? Well,
with the warm front potentially still over portions of our
region, forecast soundings are a bit concerning in the low-
levels right along that with some decent low-level shear showing
up. This will be paired with highs in the low 90s and dew points
in the low to mid 70s, which should yield plenty of instability
to pop off some thunderstorms. Model guidance has come into much
better agreement with a consensus of anywhere between 1000-2000
J/kg of CAPE in place, which tracks given the temp/dew point
combo mentioned above. The Storm Prediction Center already has
most of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather, with a
slight risk just to our northwest. Thinking that the highest
threat is going to be exactly where that piece of energy ends of
going and/or if there are any other mesoscale features upstream
to monitor, which is pretty common in June. Storms that develop
Saturday afternoon will have a lot going for them, especially
near the warm front. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
would be my primary concerns Saturday. Looking at some of the
machine learning guidance we have at our disposal these days
confirms that thought as well, with the CSU Machine Learning
tornado probs in the 2-5% range Saturday. The highest threat is
concentrated along the MD/PA border northward, and that is
reflected in our POP forecast updated this afternoon.

A lot can change with this forecast, so keep that in mind.
Mesoscale features are extremely difficult to pin down a few
days out, but just wanted to highlight that the parameter space
is concerning. Please visit weather.gov/lwx for our latest
forecast, and spc.noaa.gov for the latest severe weather
outlooks.

[WxUSAF]

Slight risk Sunday for most of us

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Slight risk Sunday for most of us

6z GFS is jacked up for I-95 points south and east on Sunday.

[CAPE]

Most of us could use an inch+ of rain. Don't really care about the severe at this point.

[frd]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GFS is jacked up for I-95 points south and east on Sunday.

Good,  because the overnight WPC reduced rainfall in the region. 

[Kmlwx]

I think it's possible that some of us get skunked on BOTH days of the weekend. 

[high risk]

15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think it's possible that some of us get skunked on BOTH days of the weekend. 

     Other than a couple of isolated morning showers and maybe a few dying late evening showers, I'm not seeing a lot of legit rain chances on Saturday unless something changes.     I've resigned now to pulling for Sunday.    I was surprised to the SLGT, but the Euro is much slower with the front, and the GFS/GEFS seem to be trending that way.     Would be a decent SVR (and possibly a heavy rainfall) event Sunday if the slower front idea is correct.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Other than a couple of isolated morning showers and maybe a few dying late evening showers, I'm not seeing a lot of legit rain chances on Saturday unless something changes.     I've resigned now to pulling for Sunday.    I was surprised to the SLGT, but the Euro is much slower with the front, and the GFS/GEFS seem to be trending that way.     Would be a decent SVR (and possibly a heavy rainfall) event Sunday if the slower front idea is correct.

The CSU-MLP stuff is still semi decent for Sunday. I'd want to be as far east as possible as it stands right now for Sunday. We'll see how it keeps moving the next 24-48 hours. 

[high risk]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The CSU-MLP stuff is still semi decent for Sunday. I'd want to be as far east as possible as it stands right now for Sunday. We'll see how it keeps moving the next 24-48 hours. 

 

       Yeah, I'm still worried about this being an Eastern Shore show on Sunday - hoping that the slower trends continue.   

 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

     Other than a couple of isolated morning showers and maybe a few dying late evening showers, I'm not seeing a lot of legit rain chances on Saturday unless something changes.     I've resigned now to pulling for Sunday.    I was surprised to the SLGT, but the Euro is much slower with the front, and the GFS/GEFS seem to be trending that way.     Would be a decent SVR (and possibly a heavy rainfall) event Sunday if the slower front idea is correct.

        Of course, right after I blow off Saturday, the 12Z HRRR pulls me back in with an impressive convective evolution for northern MD with some interesting wind profiles.

[Kmlwx]

CSU-MLP for Sunday now has a little red on the map. 

[Kmlwx]

12z guidance (specific to wind)

[Eskimo Joe]

Watching this weekend from sunny San Diego. Enjoy the derecho and tornado swarm!

[EastCoast NPZ]

10 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I think it's possible that some of us get skunked on BOTH days of the weekend. 

I wonder who that'll be.

[JenkinsJinkies]

On 6/28/2024 at 7:31 AM, CAPE said:

Most of us could use an inch+ of rain. Don't really care about the severe at this point.

Well it can’t properly absorb into the ground if it’s torrential. These storms are terrible drought busters for that reason, it’s the same reason we got news stories of big rain storms in California barely making a dent in their drought a decade ago.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Well it can’t properly absorb into the ground if it’s torrential. These storms are terrible drought busters for that reason, it’s the same reason we got news stories of big rain storms in California barely making a dent in their drought a decade ago.

That's typically the way we get it in summer, outside of tropical. Prolonged light-moderate soaking rain events are hard to come by. Torrential works for me because of the flat terrain and lack of impervious surfaces around.

[high risk]

Huge spread in CAM solutions for both today and tomorrow.    After looking at the HRRR and NAM Nest, I was ready to write off severe potential this evening and hope for a weakening area of storms to arrive from the northwest later tonight.   But all 3 HiRes Windows have significant convective signals for the early evening hours with modest instability and deep-layer shear (and even a bit of low-level shear, if you're really feeling frisky).      Do we trust the 2 better models or the agreement of the other 3?

For Sunday, being further south and east will ramp up your severe probabilities considerably, but there is still a healthy overall signal for the I-95 corridor in an environment with stronger instability and deep-layer shear than today.