2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Soil data (temp and moisture) is now available on the Frostburg mesonet site: https://weather.umd.edu/mdmesonet/?station=frostburg

That's a very cool site?   Can you explain the units for soil moisture?   My guess is cubic meter of water per cubic meter of soil but it's not clear from the graph.  Does it take into account the density of the soil type or is it just purely a volumetric measurement?  How do they track that in real time?

[TSG]

13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That's a very cool site?   Can you explain the units for soil moisture?   My guess is cubic meter of water per cubic meter of soil but it's not clear from the graph.  Does it take into account the density of the soil type or is it just purely a volumetric measurement?  How do they track that in real time?

I think your guess is correct, looks like a volumetric percentage

[high risk]

Really interesting forecast for later Friday.    Deep layer shear is adequate for severe, but there are big differences in moisture evolution.    There is a lot of agreement that there will be some strong low-level drying in the early afternoon (mixing?  downsloping?  subsidence?), but the extent of the drying differs a lot among the models:

Both forecasts have a local min in the DC area with higher dew points surrounding that min;  they both moisture things back up later in the afternoon as the front approaches.   The HRRR, however, can't recover enough from that pretty serious drying (both in magnitude and coverage), while the NAM Nest has "less work to do" to get dew points back up into the mid to upper 60s by the time convection tries to initiate.   I'm pretty sure that the HRRR is significantly overdone, but if it's at all on the right track, frontal convection will struggle.   If we can moisten up by late afternoon, it would probably be a SLGT risk day.

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Hugging 6z 3k NAM

[WxUSAF]

SLGT risk extended for far N/W burbs tomorrow.

[dailylurker]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

SLGT risk extended for far N/W burbs tomorrow.

Hopefully we can get some rain before we bake. 

[WxUSAF]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hugging 6z 3k NAM

12z about equally huggable. 

[yoda]

13 total tornadoes now for the June 5th outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/June052024Tornado

 

[high risk]

52 minutes ago, yoda said:

13 total tornadoes now for the June 5th outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/June052024Tornado

 

     Really interesting that they changed the Montgomery County tornado into 2 separate paths instead of a single 26 mile path, but based on the reports on that map, it's clear that there was an occlusion (left turn) as the tornado approached Gaithersburg, with a new tornado forming quickly to the east.

[George BM]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Really interesting that they changed the Montgomery County tornado into 2 separate paths instead of a single 26 mile path, but based on the reports on that map, it's clear that there was an occlusion (left turn) as the tornado approached Gaithersburg, with a new tornado forming quickly to the east.

Yes! I remember seeing that classic occlusion beautifully at that location on Radarscope as it cycled and the second circulation developed to the old circulations southeast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Really interesting that they changed the Montgomery County tornado into 2 separate paths instead of a single 26 mile path, but based on the reports on that map, it's clear that there was an occlusion (left turn) as the tornado approached Gaithersburg, with a new tornado forming quickly to the east.

I surveyed that entire path. Started in Poolesville around 11:30pm - 2:00 am the night of the event. We even incorporated drones from the police department. After an exhaustive amount of work, there was a small gape of about 2 - 2.5 miles hence the split in the track.

[Eskimo Joe]

The 20z HRRR is insistent on some ridge crawlers running east through the metros after 8pm this evening. Based off satellite, Id say that isn't happening. The CU field is just fading away.

[osfan24]

Seems to me like the NAM was way overdone on the pop-up storms today whereas the HRRR wasn’t really buying it. Might be something to keep in mind for tomorrow.

[toolsheds]

33 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Seems to me like the NAM was way overdone on the pop-up storms today whereas the HRRR wasn’t really buying it. Might be something to keep in mind for tomorrow.

Radar seems to be trying to pop something up now. 

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 20z HRRR is insistent on some ridge crawlers running east through the metros after 8pm this evening. Based off satellite, Id say that isn't happening. The CU field is just fading away.

Radar says otherwise 

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, yoda said:

Radar says otherwise 

Oh nice!

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

13 total tornadoes now for the June 5th outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/June052024Tornado

 

Where does that rank historically?

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where does that rank historically?

Probably top 5?  I mean it's behind Isabel and April 2011 at least in the region

April 2011 had 19 - https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_2011042728

[Hank Scorpio]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

13 total tornadoes now for the June 5th outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/June052024Tornado

 

Interesting, thank you for sharing. Since the start time of the Poolesville tornado was listed as 7:01, I went back and looked at the pictures and video I took again. Last picture before I headed home was taken at 7:01, and I think I can just barely make out the funnel. I was in Leesburg, a little over 7 miles away though, so things were looking a little grainy.

I think I may have also caught a funnel as it was trying to produce at 6:59 in this timelapse.

https://imgur.com/a/2mc4MH4

[ravensrule]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 20z HRRR is insistent on some ridge crawlers running east through the metros after 8pm this evening. Based off satellite, Id say that isn't happening. The CU field is just fading away.

Unfortunately you were completely incorrect. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Unfortunately you were completely incorrect. 

We need the rain. I'm glad we had some showers and that I was incorrect.

[osfan24]

11 hours ago, toolsheds said:

Radar seems to be trying to pop something up now. 

Yeah, looks like it kinda ended up with the right idea. Just a little delayed.

[osfan24]

Latest NAM looks like a swing and a miss. HRRR about the same.

[high risk]

Trend in the CAMs for today has not been good.     Falling dewpoints ahead of the front and lack of convergence seem to be the problems.    I think that the key is to watch the dew points - are they really going to fall into the low 50s this afternoon area-wide as shown by the HRRR?   (FWIW, the HRRR is likely overdone with the mixing, maybe by a lot, but I'd be surprised if dew points don't fall for a while.   All of the other CAMs have the dew points falling - just not nearly as much as the HRRR does.)

[osfan24]

Latest NAM is slightly more interesting. HRRR still not feeling it.

[dailylurker]

Feels pretty humid. I have a hard time believing the dews drop into the low 50's. We just don't do dry heat that good, especially here in the lowlands alone the bay. I just want to have a thunderstorm vibe this evening. 

[Interstate]

Currently I am at 82.6/72.6

[high risk]

KDCA dew point is still 68, but KBWI and KIAD have dropped into the low 60s

[A777]

20 hours ago, yoda said:

13 total tornadoes now for the June 5th outbreak

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/June052024Tornado

 

https://www.facebook.com/100079303222842/videos/1152149769162238 Saw this video the other day of a clear convergent path for that tornado near eldersburg. Thankfully seems like it peaked over trees.

[osfan24]

28 minutes ago, high risk said:

KDCA dew point is still 68, but KBWI and KIAD have dropped into the low 60s

Yeah, it does not feel that uncomfortable out right now at all.