2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Holy CRAP!!! Some great tornadic vids from the last day or so...

It's amazing how we can really "luck out" on these high dynamic days with meager instability. If we had another hour or so of decent sun we'd probably would have had another half dozen tornadoes.

[09-10 analogy]

45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Video of Sykesville tornado yesterday.

https://twitter.com/ShannonLillyTV/status/1798658497703526483

 

Almost looks like a multi-vortex ... hard to tell ...

[Weather Will]

Excellent write up by WP Weather Gang

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/06/06/maryland-tornadoes-montgomery-gaithersburg-explained/

[George BM]

 

 

 

[yoda]

Note - long post

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
943 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...NWS Damage Survey for 06/05/24 Tornado Event...

.Overview...On the afternoon and evening of Wednesday June 5th,
a warm front slowly lifted northeast across the eastern Panhandle
of West Virginia into northern Virginia as well as central and
northeastern Maryland. At the same time, low pressure tracked
along the warm front causing severe thunderstorms and tornadoes
to develop. At this time, the National Weather Service is confirming
seven tornadoes in this report. Information is still being
collected which could result in additional confirmations in the
days ahead.


.Inwood WV Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:    75 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.85 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   65 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             June 05 2024
Start Time:             4:04  PM EDT
Start Location:         2 SSE Inwood / Berkeley County / WV
Start Lat/Lon:          39.3375 / -78.0330

End Date:               June 05 2024
End Time:               4:08 PM EDT
End Location:           1 SE Inwood / Berkeley County / WV
End Lat/Lon:            39.3506 / -78.0298

Staff from the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington
Weather Forecast Office conducted a ground survey of storm
damage in Inwood WV that occurred on Wednesday afternoon,
June 5, 2024. NWS Doppler Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed
a rotating severe thunderstorm that developed a tornado. The
tornado touched down south/southeast of Inwood in a field where
tall grass could be seen disturbed in a rotating pattern. The
tornado proceeded to move north across a cow pasture where a line
of trees contained tree damage with large branches broken off.
The tornado then tracked north across the field, where additional
tree damage and shingle damage occurred along Emery Lane. The
tornado continued north towards Lucy Drive where gutter damage
and additional tree damage occurred. The tornado then crossed
Lucy Drive where large tree branched were broken off. It is
believed that the tornado lifted before reaching Middleway Pike
as no further damage was observed past that point.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the citizens of
Inwood for their help and support in conducting this survey, and
providing storm damage reports to the National Weather Service.

.Leesburg VA Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    95 mph
Path Length /statute/:  1.0 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   125 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             June 05 2024
Start Time:             6:42 PM EDT
Start Location:         3 N Leesburg / Loudoun County / VA
Start Lat/Lon:          39.1655 / -77.5648

End Date:               June 05 2024
End Time:               6:43 PM EDT
End Location:           4 NNE Leesburg / Loudoun County / VA
End Lat/Lon:            39.1767 / -77.5516

Staff from the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington
Weather Forecast Office conducted a ground survey of storm
damage that occurred north of Leesburg on Wednesday, June 5,
2024.

NWS Doppler Weather Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating
severe thunderstorm that developed a tornado. Radar also showed a
tornado damage signature due to lofted debris from the tornado as
it was occurring.

The tornado touched down southwest of Garriland Drive, north of
Leesburg, in a wooded area where broken trees could be seen. The
tornado proceeded North/northeast across Garriland Drive, south
of the intersection of Garriland Drive and Turning Leaf Lane, where
several trees were uprooted in different directions and minor
vinyl damage and window damage could be seen. The tornado then
crossed over Garriland Drive again into a field where tree damage
could be seen in the distance. Garriland Drive turns north at
this point where the tornado crossed it at London Council Lane. Near
London Council Lane, a small tree was uprooted and small branches
had been snapped off. The tornado continued northeast towards
Springrun Lane where a small shelter had the plastic roof ripped
off. Across Springrun Lane, tree damage could be seen going into
the woods, but was not found any further beyond this point.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the citizens of
Leesburg for their help and support in conducting this survey,
and providing storm damage reports to the National Weather Service.

.Central Montgomery County MD Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    105 mph
Path Length /statute/:  12.0 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   125 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               5

Start Date:             June 05 2024
Start Time:             7:14 PM EDT
Start Location:         Poolesville
Start Lat/Lon:          39.1302/-77.3852

End Date:               June 05 2024
End Time:               7:42 PM EDT
End Location:           Gaithersburg
End Lat/Lon:            39.1391/-77.1854

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast
Office staff conducted a ground survey of storm damage that
occurred in central Montgomery County MD on the evening of
Wednesday, June 5, 2024.

A mini-supercell thunderstorm formed southeast of the first
tornado that impacted Leesburg, VA, west of Poolesville, MD.
Videos of funnel clouds near John Poole Middle School were
provided by weather spotters. The first damage surveyed was at
Tudor Farm along Whites Ferry Road (MD-107). About 2 dozen pine
trees with trunk diameter exceeding two feet were snapped or
uprooted at this location, laying in various directions. Media
reported collapse of doors to a barn on the property.

From this location, the tornado lifted before dropping again in
the vicinity of the 16000 block of Darnestown Road (MD-28). Here,
about a dozen softwood trees were snapped and uprooted, falling
in differing directions. These downed trees caused the closure of
Darnestown Road for a period of time overnight. The tornado
continued on the ground for about 0.5 miles, where additional
damage was observed along and near White Ground Road. Here, many
pine trees were snapped, with one pine tree debarked of about
half of its bark on its remaining trunk.

The storm proceeded east across Seneca Creek State Park.
Staff at the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commissions (WSSC)
Seneca Water Resource Recovery Facility witnessed the tornado
moving west-to-east directly adjacent to the south of their
facility where power lines leading to the facility were snapped
causing the facility to switch to backup power. After its trek
south of the facility, it produced large broken branches that
fell onto Great Seneca Highway (MD-119), partially blocking
the roadway.

The storm continued east and entered the City of Gaithersburg.
The first damage surveyed was along Desellum Avenue north of
Gaithersburg High School. Here, pine trees were snapped, with
large limbs downed. A pair softwood trees, approximately 30 yards
apart, were snapped and fell directly towards each other, evidence
of a tornado. The storm proceeded towards Old Town Gaithersburg,
depositing a large limb on top of St. Martin of Tours Church at
the intersection of South Summit Avenue and South Frederick
Avenue (MD-355). The housing development directly east of the
Gaithersburg City Hall was particularly hard-hit, with seven
houses being condemned from trees and branches falling onto them.
One large oak tree with a trunk of about three feet was uprooted,
and fell into a house on Dogwood Drive, where five occupants were
injured and transported to the hospital. Several other trees were
uprooted including one in the 200 block of Rolling Road, along
with numerous large branches downed. One resident interviewed
said they heard the Tornado Warning on their phone about three
minutes before damage occurred near them. Once notified, their family
took action to go to the basement of their home to remain safe.
This was the last area of concentrated damage in Montgomery
County; it should be noted there may have been additional
sporadic damage east of the City of Gaithersburg as the storm
continued its eastern heading towards Columbia, MD, where it produced
additional damage.

The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather
Forecast Office acknowledges the assistance of the Montgomery
County Office of Emergency management and Homeland Security,
Montgomery County Department of Health and Human Services, WSSC
Water, and the City of Gaithersburg in helping conduct and
provide information to this storm survey.

.Columbia MD Tornado...

Rating:                EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:   95 mph
Path Length /statute/: 1.0 miles
Path Width /maximum/:  75 yards
Fatalities:            0
Injuries:              0

Start Date:            June 05 2024
Start Time:            8:31 PM EDT
Start Location:        Columbia
Start Lat/Lon:         39.2150/-76.8220

End Date:              June 05 2024
End Time:              8:33 PM EDT
End Location:          Columbia
End Lat/Lon:           39.2154/-76.8049


National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast
Office staff conducted a ground survey of storm damage that
occurred in the Long Reach village of Columbia, MD, on the
evening of Wednesday, June 5, 2024.

Damage was reported in Columbia, MD, in Long Reach
village at Phelps Luck Drive, along High Tor Hill, and the 5600
block of Waterloo Road.

First report of damage was at Phelps Luck Drive. A townhouse
development near the intersection of High Tor Hill and Tamar
Drive experienced concentrated tornadic damage. Here,
approximately two dozen trees were snapped or uprooted,
falling in various directions. About a dozen cars
parked in the townhouse community parking lot were damaged by
trees or large limbs falling onto them. Roofing fascia was
peeled off of one townhome. Damage was more intermittent but
present heading north toward the 5600 block of High Tor Hill.
Finally, tree damage was also reported at the 5600 block of
Waterloo Road.

The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather
Forecast Office acknowledges the assistance of the Howard County
Office of Emergency Management in helping conduct and provide
information contained within this storm.

.Southern Baltimore County MD Tornado...

Rating:  EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:105 MPH
Path Length /statute/:  2.4 Miles
Path Width /maximum/:   175 Yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:        June 05 2024
Start Time:       8:45 PM EDT
Start Location:   Arbutus / Baltimore County Maryland/ MD
Start Lat/Lon:     39.23 / -76.71

End Date:           June 05 2024
End Time:         8:52 PM EDT
End Location:  Halethorpe / Baltimore County / MD
End Lat/Lon:    39.25 / -76.67

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office
staff conducted a survey of storm damage that occurred in
southern Baltimore County on Wednesday, June 05, 2024.

NWS Doppler Weather Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating
thunderstorm that developed a tornado based on this survey.
Weather spotters and residents reported a tornado touchdown in
the vicinity of the I-95 and I-195 interchange around 8:45 PM EDT.
This was confirmed with ground reports of several large tree
trunks twisted and snapped in the vicinity of Riverchase
Apartments along Selford Road and Deer Run Court. The tornado
continued east northeast along a narrow path toward Friendship
Road and Francis Ave. Multiple trees and wires were down along
this route in a confluent pattern. The most notable was a large
oak tree snapped midway up the trunk. The tree ended up laying in
the north-northeast direction onto two cars and a house nearby.
An additional large oak tree and its root ball were laying 500 feet
nearby closing off Friendship Road.

Beyond this point, the tornado continued east northeast between
Francis Avenue and Ingate Terrace. Additional large trees were
sheared off along with large root balls toppled. Numerous power
and phone lines were down as well with BGE and Verizon crews
assessing and repairing the damage. Similar damage was observed
as the tornado moved east southeast toward Elm and Oakland Road.
Several large trees were snapped midway along Elm Road, Huntsmoor
Road, Oakland Road, and Ashbourne Road. Wires were down as well
with one power pole twisted at its base at the intersection of
Oakland Road and Elm Rd.

Beyond this point the path widened a bit with two medium spruce
trees down along Oregon Avenue and several large branches along
Carville Avenue. The tornado proceeded to lift and cycle as it
crossed US-1 at I-95 and Potomac Avenue around 7:48 PM. The storm
continued 1.4 miles east northeast toward Halethorpe, MD where an
additional touchdown was noted around 8:50 PM EDT. This was
confirmed with several damage reports in the vicinity of the
3600 block of Commerce Drive and Washington Boulevard and Lansdowne
Road. Multiple trees were snapped along a narrow path from the
Home Depot over toward Alside Building Materials and Amazon HQ.
The most notable damage was along Robert A Young Way between
Alside Products and Amazon HQ. Four heavy overhead doors were
blown out of the distribution warehouse along with pieces of the
awning and roofing material removed from the Alside building.
Several trees were also sheared at the canopy top within this
same area. Additional large trees were taken down behind the LA-
Fitness and Store-it storage facility along Washington Boulevard.
The damage was a bit broader in this area and most likely the end
point to where the tornado finally lifted. Radar indicated the
circulation clearing this point around 8:52 PM EDT.

The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office
would like to thank the Baltimore County Office of Emergency
Management for providing helpful information and assisting in the
survey today.

.Middle River MD Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:    105 MPH
Path Length /statute/:  0.2 Miles
Path Width /maximum/:   110 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             June 05 2024
Start Time:             8:57 PM EDT
Start Location:         Middle River
Start Lat/Lon:          39.34 -76.40

End Date:             June 05 2024
End Time:               8:58 PM EDT
End Location:           Middle River
End Lat/Lon:            39.34  -76.40

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office
staff conducted a ground survey of storm damage that occurred in
southeast Baltimore County on Wednesday, June 05, 2024.

NWS Doppler Weather Radar in Sterling, Virginia showed a rotating
thunderstorm that developed a tornado based on the survey. The
circulation developed just to the south of Essex, MD at 8:43 PM
EDT before racing north and strengthening toward Martin State
Airport around 8:57pm. This is where a notable debris signature
started to show up on radar as the storm pushed north-northeast.
This signature was confirmed with ground reports of multiple
mobile homes damaged in the Williams Estates area as the
strongest winds pushed through. The damage path was fairly narrow
and short lived. Most of the damage included the removal of
underpinning from several single and double wide mobile homes
in the Williams Estates community. This included several mobile
homes along Wagon Train Road and Roundup Road as well as Cowhide
Circle. Carports, sheds, and even a trampoline were tossed around
the neighborhood as well.

Several trees were also snapped and turned in several
different directions along Roundup Road and Cowhide Circle. The
most notable damage was between Dahlia Lane and Roundup Road.
This where the height of the circulation looks to take place right
around 8:58 PM EDT. Within this area there were two double wide
mobile homes with significant damage. One of the mobile homes had
underpinning removed from two sides of the building with the
windows completely blown out and a shed tossed 50 yards in the
opposite direction from its foundation. The resident who owns
this home had roughly 30 seconds of video showing the tornado as it
passed through. He recalled a loud boom which was most likely the
shed being tossed from the foundation to the other side of the
residence. Pieces of the shed and other debris were impinged into
the side of the mobile home as well. The neighboring double wide
mobile home was also missing a majority of its underpinning along
with several shingles and shingle material off the roof of the
structure. Strapping on both units appeared to be secured with no
other distinct structural damage to be observed.

Beyond this point, the tornado continued toward Roundup Road and
Cowhide Circle where the path widened. Much of the same damage
was noted, but to a lesser extent with underpinning and shingles
removed from several mobile homes in the area. The tornado
continued toward the back of Cowhide Circle where it eventually
lifted. No additional damage was found beyond this point nor any
injuries reported.

The National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office
would like to thank the Baltimore County Office of Homeland Security
and Emergency Management for providing helpful information and
assisting in the survey today.

.Eldersburg MD Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:    85 mph
Path Length /statute/:  4.4 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             June 05, 2024
Start Time:             7:59 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 NNW of Eldersburg / Carroll County / MD
Start Lat/Lon:          39.4259 / -76.9717

End Date:               June 05, 2024
End Time:               8:13 PM EDT
End Location:           1 NE of Gamber / Carroll County / MD
End Lat/Lon:            39.4726 / -76.9151

On the evening of Wednesday, June 5, 2024, an EF-0 tornado
touched down 2 miles north-northwest of Eldersburg, Maryland. The
National Weather Service conducted a damage survey and noted an
initial area of tree damage near the intersection of Tanglewood
Drive and Covington Court. A rotational damage signature was
evident as tree damage was pointed in opposite directions.

The tornadic storm continued its track toward the northeast with
additional damage observed along Bartholow Road near Sarah Drive.
This included multiple large trees which were uprooted, one of
which fell onto a house. Further damage was noted up the road
just north of the intersection of Bartholow Road and Cherry
Tree Lane. Dozens of trees had large sections and branches
snapped off and topped. Observed tree damage was spread out
into multiple directions.

Several minutes later, the tornado passed over Morgan Run before
causing additional damage to the Lakeland Heights area. A home
was seen with siding and shingle damage near Sun Berry Court
and Lake Forest Court. Multiple large broken tree branches were noted
behind the home. A few trees were damaged along Legacy Drive.

The damage signature to the northeast became more intermittent in
nature as the tornado began to weaken. By 8:13 PM EDT, the final
damage point was noted about 1 mile northeast of Gamber MD.
Along Pin Oak Drive, a mid-sized tree was uprooted with multiple
downed tree branches. Thereafter, the circulation dissipated
while approaching MD State Route 140. No damage was noted along
Route 140. A circulation evident on NWS Doppler weather radar
corroborated this track as well.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the Carroll
County Emergency Management Division for their assistance with
this damage survey.

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0.........65 to 85 mph
EF1.........86 to 110 mph
EF2.........111 to 135 mph
EF3.........136 to 165 mph
EF4.........166 to 200 mph
EF5.........>200 mph

NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and
subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

$$

[09-10 analogy]

Read that the 0-3 km SRH from a BWI sounding was around 450 m2/s2 on Wednesday as the sup passed by. Not bad for around here.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Read that the 0-3 km SRH from a BWI sounding was around 450 m2/s2 on Wednesday as the sup passed by. Not bad for around here.

 

Yea the 00z balloon from Sterling was nuts. Supercell composite of over 20, with a fat CAPE profile. Really wish the NWS was funded better so they could launch special 18z soundings on these kind of days. I wonder if that would have caught the potential a bit better? 

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea the 00z balloon from Sterling was nuts. Supercell composite of over 20, with a fat CAPE profile. Really wish the NWS was funded better so they could launch special 18z soundings on these kind of days. I wonder if that would have caught the potential a bit better? 

Imagine the better data across the board if they got funding/approval for either 4x daily balloon launches at all sites and/or added more dense balloon release locations. The cost cannot be that high compared to some of the other stuff our country spends on. Somebody should sneak it into part of the defense budget...it would have benefits for the military as well for all sorts of applications. 

Between balloons and phased-array radars...gotta get smart with dual/multi-use of stuff like this. Weather impacts everyone and everything...

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Imagine the better data across the board if they got funding/approval for either 4x daily balloon launches at all sites and/or added more dense balloon release locations. The cost cannot be that high compared to some of the other stuff our country spends on. Somebody should sneak it into part of the defense budget...it would have benefits for the military as well for all sorts of applications. 

Between balloons and phased-array radars...gotta get smart with dual/multi-use of stuff like this. Weather impacts everyone and everything...

Brain vomiting now...but what about some sort of meso/microscale balloon program where a mobile launcher like on a truck could carry balloon launching equipment to spots where supplemental launches are needed? Imagine getting a decent collection of sondes in a region right before a severe weather day. 

Example could be the normal LWX/IAD balloon, but supplemented by a launch near Westminster, Fredericksburg, somewhere out west in the mountains, over/near the bay, Southern Maryland. 

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Imagine the better data across the board if they got funding/approval for either 4x daily balloon launches at all sites and/or added more dense balloon release locations. The cost cannot be that high compared to some of the other stuff our country spends on. Somebody should sneak it into part of the defense budget...it would have benefits for the military as well for all sorts of applications. 

Between balloons and phased-array radars...gotta get smart with dual/multi-use of stuff like this. Weather impacts everyone and everything...

We're putting a mesonet site in Dickerson off Elmer School Road....probably would've helped with that cell.

21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Brain vomiting now...but what about some sort of meso/microscale balloon program where a mobile launcher like on a truck could carry balloon launching equipment to spots where supplemental launches are needed? Imagine getting a decent collection of sondes in a region right before a severe weather day. 

Example could be the normal LWX/IAD balloon, but supplemented by a launch near Westminster, Fredericksburg, somewhere out west in the mountains, over/near the bay, Southern Maryland. 

My ultimate wish is to have the Maryland Mesonet install some profiler sites like what New York does. More Lidar soundings that can be ingested through MADIS by SPC and NWS.

[Kmlwx]

@Eskimo Joe - I think maybe it was a bit north of the one I'm going to reference - but I seem to remember that 2013 long track MoCo tornado taking a very similar path to the one the other day. I know my mom worked at Stonegate ES at the time and it went right through there. We've always mentioned the little "tornado alleys" locally. Obviously a sample size of 2 is not nearly enough - but might be inclined to add the MoCo corridor running from Poolesville east along roughly the ICC and then cutting up towards Columbia as a mini alley. 

The La Plata one is the most famous - definitely the river wind component. I think people have mentioned one up closer to Frederick as well? 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

@Eskimo Joe - I think maybe it was a bit north of the one I'm going to reference - but I seem to remember that 2013 long track MoCo tornado taking a very similar path to the one the other day. I know my mom worked at Stonegate ES at the time and it went right through there. We've always mentioned the little "tornado alleys" locally. Obviously a sample size of 2 is not nearly enough - but might be inclined to add the MoCo corridor running from Poolesville east along roughly the ICC and then cutting up towards Columbia as a mini alley. 

The La Plata one is the most famous - definitely the river wind component. I think people have mentioned one up closer to Frederick as well? 

Yea that June 2013 event was my first damage assessment. I've always leaned towards the mini tornado alley along the Frederick/Montgomery County line. Perhaps it's Parr's Ridge, or something else, but hopefully these mesonet stations will help diagnose this in the future.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that June 2013 event was my first damage assessment. I've always leaned towards the mini tornado alley along the Frederick/Montgomery County line. Perhaps it's Parr's Ridge, or something else, but hopefully these mesonet stations will help diagnose this in the future.

The other explanation is that it's just chance occurrences...the front was probably the main driver during this event. La Plata is definitely the river wind enhancement as storms cross from the Quantico area to the Maryland side. 

The river is a lot less wide up in western MoCo...but I'm sure there's still some microscale stuff that could be just enough for added helicity or something. I mean hell...270 is so busy that we can't even discount the actual highways adding heat to impact smaller scale wind direction and stuff. MoCo is kind of cool in that we have the Potomac on one border, huge interstate through the center, and then the Patuxent and big reservoirs on the northern border. All sorts of little interactions that might be a factor.  

[Hank Scorpio]

58 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The other explanation is that it's just chance occurrences...the front was probably the main driver during this event. La Plata is definitely the river wind enhancement as storms cross from the Quantico area to the Maryland side. 

The river is a lot less wide up in western MoCo...but I'm sure there's still some microscale stuff that could be just enough for added helicity or something. I mean hell...270 is so busy that we can't even discount the actual highways adding heat to impact smaller scale wind direction and stuff. MoCo is kind of cool in that we have the Potomac on one border, huge interstate through the center, and then the Patuxent and big reservoirs on the northern border. All sorts of little interactions that might be a factor.  

This site is a great resource for historical tornado tracks by state:

https://data.newsleader.com/tornado-archive/maryland/

I've spent way too much time on that site. Obviously a low sample size, but it does seem like a lot of the longer track tornadoes in that area are more west -> east based.

[Eskimo Joe]

Montgomery County tornado path now updated to 26 miles.

 

 

[IronTy]

I dont think I've even heard any significant thunder so far this year down here.  

[high risk]

On 6/7/2024 at 9:23 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea the 00z balloon from Sterling was nuts. Supercell composite of over 20, with a fat CAPE profile. Really wish the NWS was funded better so they could launch special 18z soundings on these kind of days. I wonder if that would have caught the potential a bit better? 

 

      Not to trivialize the environment that was in place, as it clearly supported tornadoes, but that sounding had 78/77 at the surface;  that dew point value was significantly higher than any value in the area and contributed to the supposed great CAPE.  I don't consider that a reasonable representation of the instability anywhere in the area at that time.    4000 CAPE would have led to many instances of large hail.

[Hank Scorpio]

I went and checked out the damage path from the Wednesday tornado north of Leesburg. It took a route right through a neighborhood, but thankfully all of the damage I could see was limited to trees. Obvious damage in a couple of spots right next to the road, but there were some bigger trees down back way behind houses.

Two things I found particularly interesting, first that it touched down almost immediately after getting over the catoctins. They aren't very high in that spot, but I do wonder if the terrain had any impact on timing. And second, how fast that thing must have been moving. NWS said it was only on unit ground for a minute, but the damage path was pretty darn long still.

I also went back and looked at the pictures I took on Wednesday and then compared them to the radar loop, and what I was seeing makes a lot more sense now. The tornado north of Leesburg lifted just as I started taking pictures. And so what I was focused on instead was the new rotation that was just beginning and was what eventually produced the long track tornado that moved through Montgomery county.

[yoda]

Huh, didn't expect to read this in the morning AFD from LWX re Friday 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slide southeast across the region Friday into
Friday night. Warmth and humidity will be increasing ahead of it to
help to fuel any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead of and
along the cold front. At this time it is too early to tell if
thunderstorms will be typical for June or if they will pack a punch
with damaging winds, hail or tornadoes. Expected high temperatures
will reach the lower to perhaps middle 90s with slightly cooler
temperatures in the western mountains.

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Huh, didn't expect to read this in the morning AFD from LWX re Friday 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slide southeast across the region Friday into
Friday night. Warmth and humidity will be increasing ahead of it to
help to fuel any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead of and
along the cold front. At this time it is too early to tell if
thunderstorms will be typical for June or if they will pack a punch
with damaging winds, hail or tornadoes. Expected high temperatures
will reach the lower to perhaps middle 90s with slightly cooler
temperatures in the western mountains.

 

Mount Holly also mentioned the possibility for severe in their morning AFD-

Convective details remain unclear at this time, but the medium range guidance continues to indicate potential for at least some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Friday afternoon and evening. With the approaching trough, there will be at least modest shear and forcing for convection. These could also be sufficient enough for a severe threat as well, however the limiting factor for severe currently appears to be the less-than-impressive instability thanks to the poor mid-level lapse rates. In any case, we`ll need to keep a close eye on Friday`s heat and severe weather threats.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Huh, didn't expect to read this in the morning AFD from LWX re Friday 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will slide southeast across the region Friday into
Friday night. Warmth and humidity will be increasing ahead of it to
help to fuel any showers and thunderstorms that develop ahead of and
along the cold front. At this time it is too early to tell if
thunderstorms will be typical for June or if they will pack a punch
with damaging winds, hail or tornadoes. Expected high temperatures
will reach the lower to perhaps middle 90s with slightly cooler
temperatures in the western mountains.

 

I think everyone is gun shy after last week.

[Kmlwx]

For Friday - I'd expect our usual isolated storm/isolated severe style event. Maybe a marginal or lower end slight if we are lucky. I am very doubtful it will be any sort of widespread of heavily damaging event. 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

For Friday - I'd expect our usual isolated storm/isolated severe style event. Maybe a marginal or lower end slight if we are lucky. I am very doubtful it will be any sort of widespread of heavily damaging event. 

Yea absolutely nothing excites me about Friday.

[yoda]

17 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

For Friday - I'd expect our usual isolated storm/isolated severe style event. Maybe a marginal or lower end slight if we are lucky. I am very doubtful it will be any sort of widespread of heavily damaging event. 

LWX AFD seems to suggest decent parameters are in place 

Model guidance have begun to show an increasing signal for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening.
This is all in response to a cold front set to slide through the
region during the near peak in the diurnal heating cycle. While
just outside the realm of the convective-allowing model world,
coarser-scale models do show an envelope of ample buoyancy in
the pre-frontal environment. Forecast vertical shear values
between 35-45 knots would be more than enough to support
organized convection. Damaging winds would be the primary threat
for any more potent storm or along an eastward propagating
squall line. This activity should all exit into the Eastern
Shore by late Friday night. In the wake, prevailing
northwesterly flow will gradually usher in some drier air from
central Canada. However, temperatures do stay slightly above
average with widespread 60s expected (50s over the mountains).

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

LWX AFD seems to suggest decent parameters are in place 

Model guidance have begun to show an increasing signal for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening.
This is all in response to a cold front set to slide through the
region during the near peak in the diurnal heating cycle. While
just outside the realm of the convective-allowing model world,
coarser-scale models do show an envelope of ample buoyancy in
the pre-frontal environment. Forecast vertical shear values
between 35-45 knots would be more than enough to support
organized convection. Damaging winds would be the primary threat
for any more potent storm or along an eastward propagating
squall line. This activity should all exit into the Eastern
Shore by late Friday night. In the wake, prevailing
northwesterly flow will gradually usher in some drier air from
central Canada. However, temperatures do stay slightly above
average with widespread 60s expected (50s over the mountains).

As we get into the summer, we typically do great on parameters save two: EML and a strong kicker. As a result, we get those glorious pulsers that wreck one are but spare the rest of the county.

[Kmlwx]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As we get into the summer, we typically do great on parameters save two: EML and a strong kicker. As a result, we get those glorious pulsers that wreck one are but spare the rest of the county.

Microburst/downburst season I suppose. But yes...localized areas can absolutely get wrecked in July. I think we are still "OK" into late June - especially if we can get some NW flow action. Save for the big no-watch tornado day it's been a real quiet season locally. 

[WxUSAF]

43 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Microburst/downburst season I suppose. But yes...localized areas can absolutely get wrecked in July. I think we are still "OK" into late June - especially if we can get some NW flow action. Save for the big no-watch tornado day it's been a real quiet season locally. 

The tornado day last week was exceptional for a lot of reasons obviously, but it seems like we are in a multi-year drought for thunderstorm frequency alone. Not even counting severe storms.

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The tornado day last week was exceptional for a lot of reasons obviously, but it seems like we are in a multi-year drought for thunderstorm frequency alone. Not even counting severe storms.

For a completely un-scientific reason...I thought maybe things would turn around after that tornado day. Anecdotally we have gone on "heaters" that often start off with a major area-wide event.

Weather hasn't been a hugely exciting hobby locally recently. I mean sure - there have been a few things here and there - but certainly no sustained tracking of any sort. 

[high risk]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The tornado day last week was exceptional for a lot of reasons obviously, but it seems like we are in a multi-year drought for thunderstorm frequency alone. Not even counting severe storms.

    Agreed, but I was I was feeling pretty good about frequency of general thunderstorms this year up until early May.  I think I had heard thunder 5 times before May 1, and there was one year a few years ago (2020?) when I didn't hear my first thunder until the first week of May.    But it has certainly been a disappointing May and first 10 days of June.

[Eskimo Joe]

Soil data (temp and moisture) is now available on the Frostburg mesonet site: https://weather.umd.edu/mdmesonet/?station=frostburg