2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[AmericanWxFreak]

21 minutes ago, high risk said:

That watch box comes further east than I expected

Seems like the box artist has some beef with HoCo....

[NorthArlington101]

Feels like a storm day. I’m trying to be out and about from 6-8 or so… hoping it blows through fast or not at all!

[MN Transplant]

Highest DP since last Sept on my station.

[vastateofmind]

26 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

So...did anyone with a wx radio get the actual alarm/notification on this? I see it was issued at 3:09, but my alarm didn't go off at all in the last 10 min. 

Adding to my own observation...the STW *just* came through on the wx radio. Again, odd. It's usually instantaneous on the wx radio.

[toolsheds]

1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Seems like the box artist has some beef with HoCo....

reminds me of this....

[09-10 analogy]

Nice V-notch on the cell just north of the M/D line, crossing I-81.

[87storms]

Next.

[NorthArlington101]

Feels like a storm day. I’m trying to be out and about from 6-8 or so… hoping it blows through fast or not at all!

Today’s answer was: not at all!

[Kmlwx]

Don't look now but the 12z CIPS guidance has some excitement at the 84hr frames and the 132hr frames. 

[George BM]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Don't look now but the 12z CIPS guidance has some excitement at the 84hr frames and the 132hr frames. 

What analogs are they showing?

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, George BM said:

What analogs are they showing?

Lots of nothing...BUT the domain that is centered over us has the following:

For the 84hr mark: June 24-25, 1996 (multiple tornado day in NoVA), June 2-3, 1998 (big time eastern US tornado outbreak - also quickly followed the May 1998 derecho outbreak).

For the 132hr mark there are two domains mostly overlapping each other. Doing some pick and choose shows June 1-2, 2012 and April 27/28/29 event in 2011. 

[Kmlwx]

From June 1, 2012

[yoda]

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

From this mornings AFD regarding Monday... already tossing out the significant severe weather episode words

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Shortwave ridging will build again on Sunday keeping convective
cvrg isolated and mainly along the I-64 corridor.

Memorial Day still looks like a very active severe wx day and
the most active of all of next week. A deep upper level trough
over the Great Lks region will push a strong cold front through
the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, widespread showers
and thunderstorms appear definite with the potential for a
significant severe wx episode given moderately strong bulk shear
values of 30-40kt, high instability, and moderately steep mid-
level lapse rates. GFS forecast soundings also indicate a
tornado threat with 0-3 km SRH of over 200 m^2/s^2, EHI of 2-4,
and high supercell composite values. The severe threat should
end by 06Z Tue with frontal passage. There could still be
instability showers Tue afternoon as upper trough axis pivots
through, but the deep moisture should have been shunted south
and east the night before.

[WeatherShak]

From June 1, 2012

I remember the clouds swirling over DC this day. Believe a funnel cloud was also reported near the capitol.

[Kmlwx]

Who knows when the next time we'll see a TOR driven moderate risk around these parts. Exceedingly rare. 

[high risk]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

From this mornings AFD regarding Monday... already tossing out the significant severe weather episode words

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Shortwave ridging will build again on Sunday keeping convective
cvrg isolated and mainly along the I-64 corridor.

Memorial Day still looks like a very active severe wx day and
the most active of all of next week. A deep upper level trough
over the Great Lks region will push a strong cold front through
the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, widespread showers
and thunderstorms appear definite with the potential for a
significant severe wx episode given moderately strong bulk shear
values of 30-40kt, high instability, and moderately steep mid-
level lapse rates. GFS forecast soundings also indicate a
tornado threat with 0-3 km SRH of over 200 m^2/s^2, EHI of 2-4,
and high supercell composite values. The severe threat should
end by 06Z Tue with frontal passage. There could still be
instability showers Tue afternoon as upper trough axis pivots
through, but the deep moisture should have been shunted south
and east the night before.

           Monday definitely has potential.    SPC hinted at some timing issues in their discussion, and I would definitely prefer the faster progression of the upper wave depicted on the 00Z ECMWF.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Who knows when the next time we'll see a TOR driven moderate risk around these parts. Exceedingly rare. 

          Yeah, that was a cool event.   There were definitely several tornadoes in the local area, although none of them were strong, as I recall.    One tracked very close to Fort Meade.

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is a little less enthusiastic on the 0z overnight run. But it will wax and wane I'm sure. 

I was doing some boredom research and it definitely looks like the idea that we go on heaters followed by long periods of "meh" severe weather is legit - at least judging solely by SPC outlook categories. 

I found some stretches in the 90s of heater runs of moderate risks in a month period. Wish I was old enough to distinctly remember those. SPC Outlook archives on their website only go back to 2000 - Googling can get you some but not a comprehensive list of pre-2000. Fun to do in free time. Nerds....we are.

[Kmlwx]

Using MBY in Silver Spring/Colesville as a point, the IEM SPC Outlook filtering guide shows *TEN* moderate risk days from May to October in 1990. Obviously, meteorology wasn't advanced as it was...but that was either a heck of a bust year or we were absolutely getting rocked and rolled. I wasn't born yet  

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Using MBY in Silver Spring/Colesville as a point, the IEM SPC Outlook filtering guide shows *TEN* moderate risk days from May to October in 1990. Obviously, meteorology wasn't advanced as it was...but that was either a heck of a bust year or we were absolutely getting rocked and rolled. I wasn't born yet  

I will have to look it up after I get home from work... and I was 3 years old

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

I will have to look it up after I get home from work... and I was 3 years old

October 18th of that year (1990) had an outbreak as well. Most of what I can find are write-ups that might not be DC area centered and  archived articles from the WaPo and similar. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

CIPS is a little less enthusiastic on the 0z overnight run. But it will wax and wane I'm sure. 

I was doing some boredom research and it definitely looks like the idea that we go on heaters followed by long periods of "meh" severe weather is legit - at least judging solely by SPC outlook categories. 

I found some stretches in the 90s of heater runs of moderate risks in a month period. Wish I was old enough to distinctly remember those. SPC Outlook archives on their website only go back to 2000 - Googling can get you some but not a comprehensive list of pre-2000. Fun to do in free time. Nerds....we are.

      It's worth noting that SPC used to be very liberal with issuing Moderate Risks.    We had 3 here in a two-week period in some year in the early 2000s.    They eventually added the Enhanced category so that they could save the Moderate for legitimate higher-end events.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

      It's worth noting that SPC used to be very liberal with issuing Moderate Risks.    We had 3 here in a two-week period in some year in the early 2000s.    They eventually added the Enhanced category so that they could save the Moderate for legitimate higher-end events.

I wish had had a better memory of the sequence of late May to early June 1998. I wasn't THAT young...but for some reason I just can't remember specifics. My memory starts to become clearer starting around the Sept 2001 College Park tornado...but before that...really blurry if any memory at all. 

June 2008 seemed like a decent "heater" period along with June 2012. 

[wawarriors4]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I wish had had a better memory of the sequence of late May to early June 1998. I wasn't THAT young...but for some reason I just can't remember specifics. My memory starts to become clearer starting around the Sept 2001 College Park tornado...but before that...really blurry if any memory at all. 

June 2008 seemed like a decent "heater" period along with June 2012. 

I grew up in Northeast Pennsylvania and definitely remember late May, Early June 1998. There was an F3 tornado that tore through Lake Carey, PA not too far from my hometown. You could still see the scar on the ground just a few years ago. Unfortunately, that is the only one I can remember before moving into the DMV. 

[WeatherShak]

          Yeah, that was a cool event.   There were definitely several tornadoes in the local area, although none of them were strong, as I recall.    One tracked very close to Fort Meade.

I remember watching radar. I think the funnel cloud over the capitol is what was tracked near Fort Meade later!


.

[WxUSAF]

Nice split on that cell as it crossed the Potomac 

[aldie 22]

My wife was driving over Point of Rocks as that thing crossed she said it was a bit intense. I told her it's sunny here and I'm watering the garden 

[Terpeast]

Cell passed right over my head. Awesome pouring rain and quite a bit of wind, not quite severe but pretty strong. Don’t have to water the garden for a while. 

[Amped]

I haven't been looking at weather maps for a while. I am impressed with modays setup.

[WxUSAF]

Might get my first HoCo split of the year