yoda Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Updated HWO from just before 2pm still hitting hard for tomorrow DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 34 knots and large hail. Heavy rainfall Thursday could result in isolated instances of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 The afternoon NAM Nest and HRRR both suggest that SVR potential Thursday will be confined to south of a line from CHO to NYG. LWX basically agrees in their afternoon discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 2 hours ago, yoda said: Updated HWO from just before 2pm still hitting hard for tomorrow DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 34 knots and large hail. Heavy rainfall Thursday could result in isolated instances of flooding. I think there is some clear potential for higher end events like that in the LWX CWA, but it's going to be limited to the extreme southern part of their area unless the models start moving the warm sector back further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Meh. Back to tracking solar flares and CMEs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 1 hour ago, high risk said: The afternoon NAM Nest and HRRR both suggest that SVR potential Thursday will be confined to south of a line from CHO to NYG. LWX basically agrees in their afternoon discussion. Mount Holly downplaying it as well based on last few model cycles. Forecast guidance continues to step back from the severe weather potential for Thursday, though the situation remains in a bit of a flux. A few things are working in favor for a diminished severe potential: 1) Guidance continues to trend further south with the track of our system, lending to a cooler, cloudier day 2) Convective-allowing models are suggesting an overnight MCS across the southern Mid Atlantic will lift northward along a warm front and arrive around or shortly after daybreak Thursday, largely robbing our region of instability for much of the day. Because so much of the aforementioned elements depend on the evolution of severe weather occuring across the Tennessee River Valley today, there remains a higher than usual level of uncertainty within our forecast. At any rate, the warm front and how far north it is able to travel will be the limiting reagent for our weather tomorrow. North of the front will remain cloudy, showery, and overall dreary with temperatures stuck in the mid to upper 60s with an easterly flow. South of the front, warmer temperatures in the 70s with diurnal heating will lend to more instability developing through the day, resulting in a higher severe weather risk. At this point in the forecast, the frontal boundary is expected to stall out just south of the Delmarva Peninsula, keeping much of the severe weather potential in our forecast area suppressed. At this point I hope I can get a quarter inch or so of rain out of this. The modest rain over the weekend didn't do very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 SLGT risk still for areas east of the i81 corridor up to the Mason-Dixon line on the new day 1... 2/5/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here. Feels like models in general have played up the rain this week that hasn't happened. I wasn't expecting periods of rain but I haven't seen a drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 21 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Feels like models in general have played up the rain this week that hasn't happened. I wasn't expecting periods of rain but I haven't seen a drop. We got missed in every direction Tuesday, but I had like 1.5” over the weekend so I’m not too mad about it. Wouldn’t mind a boomer though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 satellite imagery is not encouraging at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here. The HRRR was really the only model that ever went all in on this scenario, but it really backed off yesterday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: satellite imagery is not encouraging at all models are very emphatic that the warm air is going to be confined to areas well south and west of DC. The trends in the HREF to eliminate the SVR risk in the DC area are quite clear: 12Z yesterday: 00Z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Seems like severe setups always shift south last minute here, and flood risk sets up further north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 So we were downgraded to Marginal risk. Seems right based on all the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 10 Share Posted May 10 Severe close by 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 The HRRR past few runs have actually moved that Garret Co stuff through parts of the area tonight - even holding it together somewhat. It could really put a damper on northern light viewing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Interesting...tornado warning on that little line coming out of MD into WV. Doesn't look like a ton of rotation on radar, but doesn't take much sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 There's a distinct "buckle" in that line up there. Plus, it's possible the higher terrain is not giving the radar the clearest view. Probably a more CYA warning than anything - but wouldn't be surprised if there's wind damage with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 942 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 1015 PM EDT. * At 942 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles east of Hancock to 8 miles southeast of Berkeley Springs, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Paramount-Long Meadow, Wilson-Conococheague, Williamsport, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Harpers Ferry, Long Meadow, Kearneysville, and Saint James. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3967 7754 3953 7761 3932 7770 3931 7774 3925 7777 3949 7819 3972 7810 3972 7769 TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 294DEG 30KT 3970 7805 3953 7813 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Based off the LSRs, radar, and this Facebook post I would say there was a tornado in Garrett County this evening. https://www.facebook.com/;;sigmund/videos/3658407847748395 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 56 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: There's a distinct "buckle" in that line up there. Plus, it's possible the higher terrain is not giving the radar the clearest view. Probably a more CYA warning than anything - but wouldn't be surprised if there's wind damage with it. Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1021 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0930 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Berryville 39.62N 78.23W 05/11/2024 Morgan WV 911 Call Center Several trees and wires blew down causing a couple of transformer fires in the 100 block of Rockwell Street. && Event Number LWX2403121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 Wow - radar is actually a good old fashioned squall line - subsevere it seems mostly but it reminds me of the 90s/2000s squall lines that were solid/contiguous. HRRR looks good for DC Metro and Maryland 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Wow - radar is actually a good old fashioned squall line - subsevere it seems mostly but it reminds me of the 90s/2000s squall lines that were solid/contiguous. HRRR looks good for DC Metro and Maryland looks to be intensifying slightly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 looks to be intensifying slightly?Surprised it’s not warned with how LWX gives them out like candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Solid little storm that rolled though. I’m just NW of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Lightning and thunder right now in south Arlington VA. Thought I heard hail, but didn't see any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 On 5/11/2024 at 9:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Based off the LSRs, radar, and this Facebook post I would say there was a tornado in Garrett County this evening. https://www.facebook.com/;;sigmund/videos/3658407847748395 Not only were there a couple of confirmed tornadoes in Garrett County Saturday, but the SPC storm reports list effectively shows a regional mini-outbreak. Quite remarkable for an event without a watch box. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 10 hours ago, high risk said: Not only were there a couple of confirmed tornadoes in Garrett County Saturday, but the SPC storm reports list effectively shows a regional mini-outbreak. Quite remarkable for an event without a watch box. I would say that was no Accident - but based on the Facebook post it appears it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Do northern stream s/w's bring about our better severe weather threats? There was an interesting tidbit at the end of this mornings AFD Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday into Monday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Temperatures will continue to warm back above average during this time leading to the potential for greater instability for thunderstorm activity to feed off of. With a fairly active northern stream will continue to monitor for any severe weather or hydro threats within the extended period. Right now, there is no mention in the Day 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 14 Author Share Posted May 14 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Do northern stream s/w's bring about our better severe weather threats? There was an interesting tidbit at the end of this mornings AFD Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday into Monday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Temperatures will continue to warm back above average during this time leading to the potential for greater instability for thunderstorm activity to feed off of. With a fairly active northern stream will continue to monitor for any severe weather or hydro threats within the extended period. Right now, there is no mention in the Day 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. NW flow comes to mind. That could be what they are referencing. If a little kink in the flow can come at us at the right angle, perhaps even with some EML advecting from the west, we could do very well. GFS has teased us with a few potential threats in the fantasy ranges the last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now