2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

Updated HWO from just before 2pm still hitting hard for tomorrow 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and large hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the
potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large
hail.

Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters
Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind
gusts over 34 knots and large hail.

Heavy rainfall Thursday could result in isolated instances of
flooding.

 

[high risk]

The afternoon NAM Nest and HRRR both suggest that SVR potential Thursday will be confined to south of a line from CHO to NYG.   LWX basically agrees in their afternoon discussion.

[high risk]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Updated HWO from just before 2pm still hitting hard for tomorrow 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and large hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the
potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large
hail.

Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters
Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind
gusts over 34 knots and large hail.

Heavy rainfall Thursday could result in isolated instances of
flooding.

 

  I think there is some clear potential for higher end events like that in the LWX CWA, but it's going to be limited to the extreme southern part of their area unless the models start moving the warm sector back further north

[Kmlwx]

Meh. Back to tracking solar flares and CMEs 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

The afternoon NAM Nest and HRRR both suggest that SVR potential Thursday will be confined to south of a line from CHO to NYG.   LWX basically agrees in their afternoon discussion.

Mount Holly downplaying it as well based on last few model cycles.  

Forecast guidance continues to step back from the severe
weather potential for Thursday, though the situation remains in
a bit of a flux. A few things are working in favor for a
diminished severe potential:

1) Guidance continues to trend further south with the track of
our system, lending to a cooler, cloudier day

2) Convective-allowing models are suggesting an overnight MCS
across the southern Mid Atlantic will lift northward along a
warm front and arrive around or shortly after daybreak Thursday,
largely robbing our region of instability for much of the day.

Because so much of the aforementioned elements depend on the
evolution of severe weather occuring across the Tennessee River
Valley today, there remains a higher than usual level of
uncertainty within our forecast. At any rate, the warm front and
how far north it is able to travel will be the limiting reagent
for our weather tomorrow. North of the front will remain cloudy,
showery, and overall dreary with temperatures stuck in the mid
to upper 60s with an easterly flow. South of the front, warmer
temperatures in the 70s with diurnal heating will lend to more
instability developing through the day, resulting in a higher
severe weather risk. At this point in the forecast, the frontal
boundary is expected to stall out just south of the Delmarva
Peninsula, keeping much of the severe weather potential in our
forecast area suppressed.

At this point I hope I can get a quarter inch or so of rain out of this. The modest rain over the weekend didn't do very much.

[yoda]

SLGT risk still for areas east of the i81 corridor up to the Mason-Dixon line on the new day 1... 2/5/15

[WxUSAF]

What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here.

Feels like models in general have played up the rain this week that hasn't happened. I wasn't expecting periods of rain but I haven't seen a drop.

[WxUSAF]

21 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Feels like models in general have played up the rain this week that hasn't happened. I wasn't expecting periods of rain but I haven't seen a drop.

We got missed in every direction Tuesday, but I had like 1.5” over the weekend so I’m not too mad about it. Wouldn’t mind a boomer though…

[Eskimo Joe]

satellite imagery is not encouraging at all

[high risk]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here.

      The HRRR was really the only model that ever went all in on this scenario, but it really backed off yesterday evening.

[high risk]

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

satellite imagery is not encouraging at all

   models are very emphatic that the warm air is going to be confined to areas well south and west of DC.    The trends in the HREF to eliminate the SVR risk in the DC area are quite clear:

12Z yesterday:

00Z today:

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Seems like severe setups always shift south last minute here, and flood risk sets up further north and east.

[midatlanticweather]

So we were downgraded to Marginal risk. Seems right based on all the trends.

[midatlanticweather]

Severe close by

 

 

[Kmlwx]

The HRRR past few runs have actually moved that Garret Co stuff through parts of the area tonight - even holding it together somewhat. It could really put a damper on northern light viewing, though. 

[Hank Scorpio]

Interesting...tornado warning on that little line coming out of MD into WV. Doesn't look like a ton of rotation on radar, but doesn't take much sometimes

[Kmlwx]

There's a distinct "buckle" in that line up there. Plus, it's possible the higher terrain is not giving the radar the clearest view. Probably a more CYA warning than anything - but wouldn't be surprised if there's wind damage with it. 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 1015 PM EDT.

* At 942 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles east of Hancock to 8 miles southeast of
  Berkeley Springs, moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Municipal
  Stadium, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Boonsboro,
  Smithsburg, Paramount-Long Meadow, Wilson-Conococheague,
  Williamsport, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Harpers Ferry, Long
  Meadow, Kearneysville, and Saint James.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 7754 3953 7761 3932 7770 3931 7774
      3925 7777 3949 7819 3972 7810 3972 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 294DEG 30KT 3970 7805 3953 7813

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

[Eskimo Joe]

Based off the LSRs, radar, and this Facebook post I would say there was a tornado in Garrett County this evening. https://www.facebook.com/;;sigmund/videos/3658407847748395

[yoda]

56 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There's a distinct "buckle" in that line up there. Plus, it's possible the higher terrain is not giving the radar the clearest view. Probably a more CYA warning than anything - but wouldn't be surprised if there's wind damage with it. 

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1021 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Berryville              39.62N  78.23W
05/11/2024                   Morgan             WV   911 Call Center

            Several trees and wires blew down causing a couple of
            transformer fires in the 100 block of Rockwell Street.


&&

Event Number LWX2403121

[Kmlwx]

Wow - radar is actually a good old fashioned squall line - subsevere it seems mostly but it reminds me of the 90s/2000s squall lines that were solid/contiguous. HRRR looks good for DC Metro and Maryland

[yoda]

31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Wow - radar is actually a good old fashioned squall line - subsevere it seems mostly but it reminds me of the 90s/2000s squall lines that were solid/contiguous. HRRR looks good for DC Metro and Maryland

looks to be intensifying slightly?

[NorthArlington101]

looks to be intensifying slightly?

Surprised it’s not warned with how LWX gives them out like candy

[WxWatcher007]

Solid little storm that rolled though. I’m just NW of Baltimore.

[arlwx12]

Lightning and thunder right now in south Arlington VA.

Thought I heard hail, but didn't see any.

[high risk]

On 5/11/2024 at 9:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Based off the LSRs, radar, and this Facebook post I would say there was a tornado in Garrett County this evening. https://www.facebook.com/;;sigmund/videos/3658407847748395

   Not only were there a couple of confirmed tornadoes in Garrett County Saturday, but the SPC storm reports list effectively shows a regional mini-outbreak.      Quite remarkable for an event without a watch box.

[AdamHLG]

10 hours ago, high risk said:

   Not only were there a couple of confirmed tornadoes in Garrett County Saturday, but the SPC storm reports list effectively shows a regional mini-outbreak.      Quite remarkable for an event without a watch box.

 I would say that was no Accident - but based on the Facebook post it appears it was.

[yoda]

Do northern stream s/w's bring about our better severe weather threats?  There was an interesting tidbit at the end of this mornings AFD 

Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday into
Monday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow
with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday next week. Temperatures will continue to warm back above
average during this time leading to the potential for greater
instability for thunderstorm activity to feed off of. With a fairly
active northern stream will continue to monitor for any severe
weather or hydro threats within the extended period. Right now,
there is no mention in the Day 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center.

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Do northern stream s/w's bring about our better severe weather threats?  There was an interesting tidbit at the end of this mornings AFD 

Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday into
Monday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow
with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday next week. Temperatures will continue to warm back above
average during this time leading to the potential for greater
instability for thunderstorm activity to feed off of. With a fairly
active northern stream will continue to monitor for any severe
weather or hydro threats within the extended period. Right now,
there is no mention in the Day 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center.

NW flow comes to mind. That could be what they are referencing. If a little kink in the flow can come at us at the right angle, perhaps even with some EML advecting from the west, we could do very well. GFS has teased us with a few potential threats in the fantasy ranges the last few runs.