2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[dailylurker]

4 hours ago, 87storms said:

Looks like OK is the place to be today if you like wild weather:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

It'll be interesting to see how the forecast compares to actual.

I saw some crazy scary wording on their forecast. It's the kinda day you sit outside next to your bunker with a lemonade, bong and Reed Timmer lives and watch for monsters.

[Kmlwx]

Both April 28, 2002 and June 13, 2013 are popping up on the CIPS analogs from the 12z run. This is looking at the 84hr panels. Also the LWX HWO is already mentioning large hail and 70mph winds from storms Thursday. Bullish. I guess a lot will depend on how the next few days of severe evolves. 

[yoda]

For both Wednesday and Thursday... am also a bit surprised how bullish 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1033 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-080245-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
1033 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail are possible Wednesday afternoon. There is the
potential for considerable storm damage from 70 mph gusts and
large hail, but confidence is low at this time.

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the
potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large
hail.

Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters
Wednesday and Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of
producing wind gusts over 35 knots and hail.

Heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday could result in
isolated to scattered instances of flooding.

 

[yoda]

Even mentioned widespread severe threat potential for Wednesday in the AFD... 

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather
conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each
afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather
threat remains low. Tuesday will feature brief mid-level ridging
which should suppress convection briefly before an approaching
trough reignites the threat Wednesday into Thursday.

Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized Tuesday
given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region. More
of a focus turns toward Tuesday night as a complex of storms will
eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it`s
decaying phase as it works eastward heading into Wednesday morning
and could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro
threat pan out Wednesday afternoon.

On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater
given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to
southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and
compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The
combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of
the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe
threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. EVen
with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible
with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge. The primary threat for
storms over the next two days will be damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible.

Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs
reaching into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as a wave of
low pressure develops over the area Thursday, then quickly pushes
northeast Thursday night. This is followed by a passing cold front
Friday. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to cross
the area, especially Thursday afternoon/evening.

Starting Thursday morning, widespread showers and storms are likely
to be ongoing around sunrise over the western half of the area as a
complex of storms from WV moves eastward. This early day convection
wanes and mostly dissipates by late morning. The big uncertainty for
Thursday will be how much instability can develop in the afternoon,
before the next round of storms develops. The ingredients are there
for severe storms to develop if we get instability that can combine
with forcing for ascent from the passing upper trough to the north
and bulk shear of 40-50 knots. SPC has placed areas east of the Blue
Ridge on a Day 4 Slight Risk for severe storms. Lingering
showers/storms Thursday evening dissipate after midnight, with
mostly dry and slightly muggy conditions overnight.

[yoda]

00z NAM NEST is pretty bullish for Wednesday afternoon looking at soundings and supercell composite 

[WxUSAF]

6 hours ago, yoda said:

00z NAM NEST is pretty bullish for Wednesday afternoon looking at soundings and supercell composite 

Models all look dry for tomorrow. Am I missing something?

[Kmlwx]

I agree. I don't see much of anything suggesting "widespread severe" for us. The only conclusion I can make is that LWX is assuming that the models for subsequent days need to see the resolution of prior day convection and that they are only talking about potential. Who knows...kinda weird

[yoda]

Well they are still hitting it hard in the HWO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
657 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-081100-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
657 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail are possible Wednesday afternoon. There is the
potential for considerable storm damage from 70 mph gusts and
large hail, but confidence is low at this time.

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the
potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large
hail.

Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters
Wednesday and Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of
producing wind gusts over 35 knots and hail.

Heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday could result in
isolated to scattered instances of flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

[CAPE]

Mount Holly mentions the potential in their morning AFD, but low probability for any convection to initiate.

For Wednesday, a weak area of low
pressure passes by to the north as it moves from upstate NY into New
England. An initial round of showers and storms associated with the
system`s warm front will be moving out through the first part of the
morning with skies then clearing and temperatures shooting up as the
area breaks into the system`s warm sector. Expect afternoon highs
generally in the low to mid 80s across the area except 70s right
near the immediate coast and over the southern Poconos. Dew points
will climb into the low to mid 60s through the late morning but then
should actually start to come down in the afternoon as a very weak
cold front starts to move through and the winds turns more westerly.
During the warmest part of the day dew points should be mainly in
the upper 50s to low 60s which isn`t too high. There could be some
isolated afternoon showers/storms developing but these would be few
and far between as it should otherwise be dry through the latter
part of the day. It is worth mentioning though that should any
showers/storms develop they could become severe as winds aloft will
will be quite strong with inverted-V soundings in the lower levels.
Damaging winds would be the threat.

[Kmlwx]

Initiation is often a problem for us

[CAPE]

The trend tomorrow as the low passes by to our north is drying with westerly downsloping winds and lowering dewpoints.

Thursday is a better setup with the low track and a southerly warm, moist feed out in front over the region, especially east of the higher terrain.

[high risk]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Thursday is a better setup with the low track and a southerly warm, moist feed out in front over the region, especially east of the higher terrain.

 

     That would favor severe for sure, but the problem is that the ECMWF for now is alone in depicting southerly winds over the Mid-Atlantic.

 

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

     That would favor severe for sure, but the problem is that the ECMWF for now is alone in depicting southerly winds over the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Yeah the Euro is a bit more amplified, with the surface low positioned initially further north and a little stronger than most other guidance.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah the Euro is a bit more amplified, with the surface low positioned initially further north and a little stronger than most other guidance.

      The 12Z NAM Nest now looks very much like that Euro run and has an explicit forecast of organized convection here Thursday in a fairly good environment.

[Eskimo Joe]

13 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Both April 28, 2002 and June 13, 2013 are popping up on the CIPS analogs from the 12z run. This is looking at the 84hr panels. Also the LWX HWO is already mentioning large hail and 70mph winds from storms Thursday. Bullish. I guess a lot will depend on how the next few days of severe evolves. 

Thursday and Friday screams Carolinas and Virginia.

[MN Transplant]

The 6am supercell over my house on the 12z 3k would be fun.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The 6am supercell over my house on the 12z 3k would be fun.

Let's slow this down by 6 to 9 hours and we're probably getting into something fun.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Let's slow this down by 6 to 9 hours and we're probably getting into something fun.

Doesn't this stuff usually speed up? 

[yoda]

15 hours ago, high risk said:

      The 12Z NAM Nest now looks very much like that Euro run and has an explicit forecast of organized convection here Thursday in a fairly good environment.

00z NAM NEST has some strong parameters between 18z Thursday and 01z Friday near DC metro down into C VA including EZF into S MD 

[yoda]

2/15/15 on new Day 2 for Thursday 

[yoda]

06z NAM NEST is flagging PDS TOR soundings with the supercells it develops Thursday evening in N MD lol

[yoda]

Right near KIAD 

 

[Kmlwx]

It blows a cell through Southern Maryland on the "classic" La Plata track it seems too. I'm intrigued enough for tomorrow. We'll see. 

[Eskimo Joe]

NAMNEST blows a UHI track and decent cluster across Frederick and Carroll county tomorrow evening.

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAMNEST blows a UHI track and decent cluster across Frederick and Carroll county tomorrow evening.

Let's see what the 12z says when it comes out in the next hour or two. I think somebody will get walloped tomorrow - just not at all convinced it won't be fairly isolated/narrow. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Let's see what the 12z says when it comes out in the next hour or two. I think somebody will get walloped tomorrow - just not at all convinced it won't be fairly isolated/narrow. 

This looks like a lower order of June 2013...some AM convection that blows through and then we have to figure out where the boundaries set up. That's going to lay down some tracks for the afternoon storms. Hopefully it's a Carroll County event. I'm up at the fire department tomorrow night.

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This looks like a lower order of June 2013...some AM convection that blows through and then we have to figure out where the boundaries set up. That's going to lay down some tracks for the afternoon storms. Hopefully it's a Carroll County event. I'm up at the fire department tomorrow night.

Solid "blind" guess would be the usual climo favored spots of Fred/Carroll or down in Charles County east to the Bay. Rest of us may just watch and wave at the storms passing in the distance. Maybe we can all score a gusty outflow. 

[biodhokie]

I just would like to see something exciting. Nothing life altering but tons of lightning, some good winds and non-car denting hail.

[high risk]

I thought that the 12Z CAMs took a step back in the threat for tomorrow, with most showing much cooler temps locally, at least partially driven by early morning rain/clouds.

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

I thought that the 12Z CAMs took a step back in the threat for tomorrow, with most showing much cooler temps locally, at least partially driven by early morning rain/clouds.

I feel like this is the most likely option.