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2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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AdamHLG
AdamHLG

Since it’s quiet in here, thought you might like to see what my tree trunk looks like after my direct strike from June 29 with the tree removed yesterday. Pretty wild.

freestater
freestater

https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/1795246368715596105/photo/1

vastateofmind
vastateofmind

This is what it looked like about 5 minutes after the latest STW was issued, and about 2 minutes before the "really good" rain hit...   

Posted Images

yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     Hail             Falls Church            38.89N  77.18W
04/15/2024  M1.00 inch       City of Falls Chur VA   Trained Spotter

            A trained spotter reported 1 inch hail near the 400
            block of W Broad St in Falls Church.


&&

Event Number LWX2403047

  

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     Hail             Vienna                  38.90N  77.25W
04/15/2024  M1.00 inch       Fairfax            VA   Amateur Radio


&&

Event Number LWX2403046

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Hail             1 E Falls Church        38.89N  77.16W
04/15/2024  M1.25 inch       Arlington          VA   NWS Employee

            NWS Employee reported half dollar sized hail.


&&

Event Number LWX2403045
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vastateofmind

vastateofmind

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, yoda said:

Welp, looks like I got a rock today

I hear you, brother...OTOH, since my wife was out and about driving during that timeframe when there was quarter and ping-pong-ball sized hail...and since we just had a new roof put on our abode about three years ago because of previous hail damage...I'm kinda alright with missing out on the hail action today...  ;) 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Pocket of 9 C/km LLLR SW of DC according to latest SPC mesoanalysis.

 

lllr.gif

 

6 hours ago, yoda said:

Don't see this either everyday in our region - 3pm mid-level lapse rates 

laps.gif.51c58dee9d5754ac3a99065f1369ae4c.gif

EML gives us wins.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

CIPS and GFS are pretty quiet for the next couple weeks it looks like...so unless something sneaks up on us we may be back in snooze mode. The cooler weather coming back probably will squash instability and preclude any spring severe while it's around. I'm hoping for a last hard freeze to cut down on some of the bugs already out ugh. 

We'll have to see what late April and early May hold for thunder chances

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vastateofmind

vastateofmind

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

CIPS and GFS are pretty quiet for the next couple weeks it looks like...so unless something sneaks up on us we may be back in snooze mode. The cooler weather coming back probably will squash instability and preclude any spring severe while it's around. I'm hoping for a last hard freeze to cut down on some of the bugs already out ugh. 

We'll have to see what late April and early May hold for thunder chances

But...yesterday was kind of a last-minute surprise! I started catching up on this thread yesterday morning, and the LWX (and SPC) discos started being more spicy as the morning progressed, and...wow. My little corner of SE FfxCo didn't see much action (again, glad to miss out on the hail), but so many of you around us did. It was an impressive uptick in severe activity in a small amount of time.  ;) 

It's kind of why I increasingly like tracking severe in spring/summer, vs. the original reason why I came to this sub over a decade ago (tracking snow).

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Rhino16

Rhino16

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Maybe I can ditch Pivotal then. I already bailed on WeatherBell because of their price hike. Pivotal has been pretty good, though. 

I don’t pay for pivotal and the ads are annoying but liveable. The annoying part is when the page refreshes and I have to move my cursor from a location I’m analyzing to click the scroll bar so i can arrow key over again.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I don’t pay for pivotal and the ads are annoying but liveable. The annoying part is when the page refreshes and I have to move my cursor from a location I’m analyzing to click the scroll bar so i can arrow key over again.

For sure. I feel like every single model site has some weird quirk that is awful and really tough to get used to. I love the CoD site except that it seems to lag behind sometimes - but it's a higher education site...so I'm not going to be picky. I know some will say the CoD interface is outdated but I love it...simple and you know what you're doing no matter what. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like Tuesday maybe our next chance for a few strong to severe storms 

@Kmlwx

Afternoon disco from LWX highlights it already  

A true tease to Summer arrives Sunday-Tuesday of next week as strong
upper level ridging off builds over the mId-Atlantic region. With
strong surface high pressure off the NC coast an ample supply of
warm air advection will surge our way boosting temperatures into the
upper 70s and low 80s Sunday and potentially pushing toward 90
degrees in some locations early next week. These temperatures will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late April standards. Overnight
lows will fall into the 50s and 60s.

The ridge begins to buckle Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches
from the Ohio River Valley. The front will bring renewed chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. With that
said, severe weather could become a possibility given the well above
normal temperatures and modest dynamics Tuesday afternoon and
evening as the front passes. CIPS analogues and the CSU Learning
Machine probabilities continue to highlight this potential 7 days
out especially in areas east of I-81. We`ll continue to monitor this
threat and see how it evolves over the coming days ahead.
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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

12z CIPS maps actually had some moderate risk days in the mix of analogs. June 4, 2008 is showing up too :lol: 

But also some other older events with moderate risks or a decent number of reports locally. 

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