MJO812 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Allsnow said: Remember two weeks ago when this week was supposed to be epic as all the ens agreed lol And the weeklies But at least some areas got 2 accumulating snow events . That's why we should take the long range with a grain of salt. I have to give you props. You never believed the epic patterns that others said was going to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And the weeklies But at least some areas got 2 accumulating snow events . That's why we should take the long range with a grain of salt. I have to give you props. You never believed the epic patterns that others said was going to happen. Strong nino winter. Two weeks of a favorable window was about what we could have hoped for. Wish we could have gotten something bigger for more of the area but it is what it is. If we get a strong Nina next winter is might be rough again around nyc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Strong nino winter. Two weeks of a favorable window was about what we could have hoped for. Wish we could have gotten something bigger for more of the area but it is what it is. If we get a strong Nina next winter is might be rough again around nyc Definitely It's amazing how everyone is below average. Boston is only at 9.7. They will most likely see more snow but they will also end up below average. Maybe we will get lucky in March but it's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Definitely It's amazing how everyone is below average. Boston is only at 9.7. They will most likely see more snow but they will also end up below average. Maybe we will get lucky in March but it's a long shot. Yeah, I definitely have checked out until next winter. If something pops in March I’ll dive back in but the month looks warm to me. Hopefully, some good thunderstorm action this warm season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 A winter storm is not likely. Can we change this thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Strong nino winter. Two weeks of a favorable window was about what we could have hoped for. Wish we could have gotten something bigger for more of the area but it is what it is. If we get a strong Nina next winter is might be rough again around nyc Our one shot with another Nina is a big hurricane season. Winters after big Nina hurricane seasons can be good here-i.e. 2020-21 after the big 2020 season, 95-96 after the big 1995 season. Hopefully the big hurricanes are recurves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 30 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Our one shot with another Nina is a big hurricane season. Winters after big Nina hurricane seasons can be good here-i.e. 2020-21 after the big 2020 season, 95-96 after the big 1995 season. Hopefully the big hurricanes are recurves. I believe @bluewave posted about the importance of the mjo in Nina October which might mean a favorable stretch in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, SBUWX23 said: A winter storm is not likely. Can we change this thread? I’ll work on that late tomorrow if indeed no hazardous snow ice, probably elevation dependent. Temps too marginal to say no, at least for me, i expect models increase areal elevation coverage of snow ice tonight and tomorrow. If not then it’s a complete busted thread. Thanks for your suggestion Am on the road. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Adding on: to me this is looking like a a 6PM Thu-3PM Fri mixed wintry event with I84 mainly elevation snowfall. Questionable whether its cold enough for elevation pavement accum and so questionable on hazards but thinking rapidly deepening sfc low pres passes s of LI out near the benchmark Fri eve and the boundary layer temp guides whether the modest banding http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ seen on the 18z/19 GFS 10-16z Friday can yield snow instead of rain I84. Added one banding potential graphic. If interested check the link and move to 15z Fri. NYC probably too warm for any mixed snow but am expecting mPing rain-wet snow mixed to the nearby nw suburbs Fri 6A-10a in heavier precip rates. This lead short wave apparently is running out a little too far ahead of the northern stream diving- increasing amplitude trough that crosses the northeast Saturday to do what I thought it might 3 days ago. Should be sct snow showers or flurries Saturday with steep laps rates. One example of banding signature attached. It's been on the GFS for several cycles now, resulting -shown as deeper green fall rates 12z-18z Fri. I'm letting the headline ride until Tue evening, when I may finally be convinced no snow acc hi terrain early Fri pocs/nw Nj through nw CT and MA. I just think this is too marginal a situation to say no to an I84 elevated event, especially 72-90 hours in advance. fwiw...if we dont get this wet snow Fri AM, this may be our last decent chance for 3 or 4 weeks???? Am off line til mid Tuesday morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: Our one shot with another Nina is a big hurricane season. Winters after big Nina hurricane seasons can be good here-i.e. 2020-21 after the big 2020 season, 95-96 after the big 1995 season. Hopefully the big hurricanes are recurves. it's also la nina after el ninos, I think all three of the big la nina winters (1995-96, 2010-11 and 2020-21) came after el ninos? I'm not sure about 2017-18 though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Changed my mind at 537A/20 to do a Title tightening up and downgrade. Modeling is there to see. Too warm for snow acc NYC... if a short period of wet snow occurs. Overall tho, thread is of little added value to the bulk of the NYC subforum membership, except maybe its too early in the winter 23-24 evening for last call? If you see snow from this... enjoy the moment. Please continue posting elsewhere for non-Feb 23 related snow-ice. Thank you. No reason for me to change anything added last evenings mainly elevation dependent discussion regarding the event evolution and expectations, including banding signature. NBM, GEFS SREF show nothing... seems a little negative from what am seeing but certainly no hazard headline for most of the NYC subforum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Low near the benchmark doesn’t always mean snow. This low is essentially a frontal wave and the cold air is well behind the storm. The northern stream comes in too late well after the storm is gone. We want a high in Canada not another L which throws warm air at us ahead of this storm, and a situation where the northern stream can phase in beforehand. Just a lousy to awful leading setup. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Low near the benchmark doesn’t always mean snow. This low is essentially a frontal wave and the cold air is well behind the storm. The northern stream comes in too late well after the storm is gone. We want a high in Canada not another L which throws warm air at us ahead of this storm, and a situation where the northern stream can phase in beforehand. Just a lousy to awful leading setup. 97/98 was full of benchmark rainstorms. Little bit different scenario, with the entire continent flooded with pacific air, but same net result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 On 2/19/2024 at 1:08 PM, MJO812 said: Definitely It's amazing how everyone is below average. Boston is only at 9.7. They will most likely see more snow but they will also end up below average. Maybe we will get lucky in March but it's a long shot. Everyone except me, lol. 24.6" this winter a bit above normal so far, although not a given that we get to 29" (my 30 yr avg starting in 93)... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 97/98 was full of benchmark rainstorms. Little bit different scenario, with the entire continent flooded with pacific air, but same net result. I hated 97/98. Absolute horrific winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Verification for the non event. Also added to the bottom of initial post for those interested in comparing how poor ensembles can be 5-7 days in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I had a dense coating of translucent grey glop near a half inch thick as this moved in. It dumped for a half hour and accumulated well then melted right off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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