wdrag Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Different than the refresher powdery event of Sat Feb 17, and this past Tuesdays Feb 13 wetter snowstorm, it still has possibilities for adding to our winter snow totals with modeled "potential" for half a foot or more for the I84 corridor inclusive of the Poconos-extreme nw NJ interior sections se NYS-CT. Possibilities even exist for an inch or four down to I95 and NYC though for now, odds are less. This could be one warmer more rainy event the 22nd and then a following rapidly intensifying coastal storm Fri-Sat the 23rd-24th. As generally usual higher terrain-inland best chance for snow. A strong short wave in the eastern Pacific this weekend will move through the southwest USA early this coming week and probably be ingested into a series of northern stream Canadian short eaves that dive southeast into Midwest and form a sharp amplifying trough over the northeast USA by next weekend. Details tbd. This probably will be of NYC subforum interest for some of us the next few days as winter potential refuses to go away. Added 10 to 1 SLR, 24 hour 00z/17 global ensembles and the NWS 04z/17 very low chance 3+" snow D6-7, to look back upon when whatever transpires. Title tightening up and downgrade update at 537AM/20. Verification attached for a failed event- useless thread. Numerous traces of sleet -snow-rain mix I84 into NNJ 3P/22-9A/23 but modeled short waves remained separate with one tracking across se Canada and the other actually trailed and dropped down through the Carolines. Was over early per the poster comments. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The non-winter that keeps on giving 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 41 minutes ago, gravitylover said: The non-winter that keeps on giving Think you're right. Even the big warmup near March 1 has possibilities. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Euro is weak and warm. Need the northern stream to dig. Nothing shows a favorable storm . Might be done for snow until March maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is weak and warm. Need the northern stream to dig. Nothing shows a favorable storm . Might be done for snow until March maybe. Yeah next week isn't looking great. I'm not great at this stuff, so was wondering what others were seeing that I wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Irish said: Yeah next week isn't looking great. I'm not great at this stuff, so was wondering what others were seeing that I wasn't. It's a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's a long shot then why does the thread title say "likely" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: then why does the thread title say "likely" ? No clue He knows more than me so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: then why does the thread title say "likely" ? Because it's likely for the I84 corridor? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 19 minutes ago, Irish said: Because it's likely for the I84 corridor? Nothing is likely a week out. We have seen countless times this winter how awful the models have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nothing is likely a week out. We have seen countless times this winter how awful the models have been. Yup, the last 2 storms were misses by the models and in some cases really bad misses. And I wasn't saying that it's likely and I84 storm, just saying what the title reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 6 hours ago, Irish said: Yup, the last 2 storms were misses by the models and in some cases really bad misses. And I wasn't saying that it's likely and I84 storm, just saying what the title reads. models are all over the place for this late week event - still a work in progress with timing issues but cold enough air close by 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 0Z EURO - perfect storm track with no cold air in place prior - need the storm to slow down west of us and cold air get here first 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z EURO - perfect storm track with no cold air in place prior - need the storm to slow down west of us and cold air get here first We need something similar to what happened with the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 This so far is looking like a busted thread, but the potential in my mind continues. As we draw closer, this may start getting mapped a little clearer. I've not thrown in the towel. WPC continues the slightest potential for I84 3+". Admittedly not looking good but still a few days from merging the streams and cranking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The past 2 runs of the ICON have trended slightly more favorably for this period if looking for a bigger storm. It's still not close, but a positive trend helps to keep hope alive. We need that n/s wave to lose as much latitude as possible to our west. I guess the vorticity lobe is actually an offshoot of the PV since it dives directly from the arctic. Historically it's tricky to get these features into the right position for phasing and east coast cyclogenesis. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 Good analysis. Clearly the GGEM and GfS have finally shown a se trend. Nothing set in stone but this potential is on the table. Maybe only elevations but i can’t rule out anything including wet snow NYC if this closes off near NYC in the fast developing passage 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 11 hours ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z EURO - perfect storm track with no cold air in place prior - need the storm to slow down west of us and cold air get here first Look about 300 miles north and you have your issue. You want a big H there not L. Cold air comes in behind the storm as shown-from that we’d be dealing with the warm air coming in ahead of that Quebec low. There’s time for changes but not encouraging so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good analysis. Clearly the GGEM and GfS have finally shown a se trend. Nothing set in stone but this potential is on the table. Maybe only elevations but i can’t rule out anything including wet snow NYC if this closes off near NYC in the fast developing passage Euro is not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Look about 300 miles north and you have your issue. You want a big H there not L. Cold air comes in behind the storm as shown-from that we’d be dealing with the warm air coming in ahead of that Quebec low. There’s time for changes but not encouraging so far. yes I saw that - that low needs to be further east just like the other night dragging down cold air in back of it to set the stage for the follow up storm..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 51 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yes I saw that - that low needs to be further east just like the other night dragging down cold air in back of it to set the stage for the follow up storm..... IMO it would be better if the northern stream wave and associated surface low diving through southern Canada were further southwest (and diving southward into the US), allowing a phase with the system moving towards the eastern US coast. If there is a surface low northeast of us, it will be very difficult to form a meaningful SLP along the east coast. Unfortunately I think the big storm idea is becoming very unlikely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, eduggs said: IMO it would be better if the northern stream wave and associated surface low diving through southern Canada were further southwest (and diving southward into the US), allowing a phase with the system moving towards the eastern US coast. If there is a surface low northeast of us, it will be very difficult to form a meaningful SLP along the east coast. Unfortunately I think the big storm idea is becoming very unlikely. the last storm was not a big storm it was a weak fast moving mid lat. storm that had a couple of heavier bands. There was enough cold air because that Thursday night LP to the north passed and dragged in just enough cold this coming system late week setup is similar but the players are not in the same spot as before as of now......all about timing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: the last storm was not a big storm it was a weak fast moving mid lat. storm that had a couple of heavier bands. There was enough cold air because that Thursday night LP to the north passed and dragged in just enough cold this coming system late week setup is similar but the players are not in the same spot as before as of now......all about timing If the Canadian ULL is further southeast, yes you would get more in situ cold air locally and probably a weaker storm or no storm. Alternatively, model runs from a day or two ago that showed a stronger SLP, particularly incorporating wintry precipitation, showed partial phasing of the ULL with the other wave. In this modeled scenario, the ULL was much further southwest, all the way down into the Midwest in some cases. The SLP being downstream of the longwave trof in an area of PVA would allow for rapid surface deepening. In this scenario, cold air would bleed in slowly from the northwest as opposed to being in place beforehand. But this would also result in a much bigger storm. I personally prefer this latter scenario for a shot at a stronger storm. But right now there is virtually no model support for this scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Looks like a cold front now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: time to put an "un" before the "likely" in the title of this thread ............and put "including NYC metro"..... it's not even going to snow in the Poconos it'll probably be around 50 here on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: time to put an "un" before the "likely" in the title of this thread ............and put "including NYC metro"..... Yep this threat is done. It was basically one model showing a few inches . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Kill this, and put it out of its misery... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Northof78 said: Kill this, and put it out of its misery... It’s not even on life support. Its in the cemetery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Remember two weeks ago when this week was supposed to be epic as all the ens agreed lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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