CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 EPS looks on the milder side next weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks on the milder side next weekend too. Oh well..still time to trend that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 GEPS actually looked good to me. Several sub 980s near BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks on the milder side next weekend too. Probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks on the milder side next weekend too. Members are all over. I think it's coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Members are all over. I think it's coming. The issue isn't whether it's coming so much as whether it's down the drain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 There’s actually some chance there won’t end up with a very organized event, either, from what I’m looking at… saw some stuff last night that made me wanna pull the plug. We’ll see. But it’s difficult for me to see how it survives both index Charlie Browning, and model amplitude —> attenuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Not interested in this threat at all right now. It could change but todays runs don’t inspire any confidence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Yea, I won't be suprised at all if it just fails...intimated as much and got the 3rd degree for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Well to be fair..an inch isn’t very much, and your rates weren’t too good, so you have to factor that in too. We had two inches here, and it stuck to the roads fine until it slowed down and stopped. But ya…low sun angle is better for retention, and sticking with paltry rates. But beggars can’t be choosers. I need to have that coastal next Saturday to hammer NNE. If it does it’s game on for more March sledding. And that’s a win for me. The sun angle is definitely having a bigger affect on snow-cover. Now in late February. Wednesday 2/14: Today: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 And the Last 4 day's haven't exactly been warm. I wish you good conditions for snowmobiling next month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 33 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: The sun angle is definitely having a bigger affect on snow-cover. Now in late February. Wednesday 2/14: Today: Of course…it’s stronger no doubt. We still full thick cover here. 12.5” will keep it around lots longer. It’s compacted down to 6” Or so but we have thick cover everywhere still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Welp.. if today’s snow was it .. we had a good week.. if end of week is gone that was likely our last shot based on ensembles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 34 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: And the Last 4 day's haven't exactly been warm. I wish you good conditions for snowmobiling next month. Thank you pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Welp.. if today’s snow was it .. we had a good week.. if end of week is gone that was likely our last shot based on ensembles. It ain’t gone yet…still a week out. We watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I won't be suprised at all if it just fails...intimate as much and for the 3rd degree for it. CC is pissah, can't even get a region-wide event anymore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: CC is pissah, can't even get a region-wide event anymore You weenie me? Really? Comical. It’s a f’n week out. How did this past Tuesday look a week out(I’ll give you a hint..like trash)? Enough said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You weenie me? Really? Comical. It’s a f’n week out. How did this past Tuesday look a week out(I’ll give you a hint..like trash)? Enough said. Geeze man, relax. It's just weather lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I people all the time, all in good fun...damn. I didn't know I was gonna unleash the den 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If anything, this is probably an event for the interior higher elevations. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 19 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Geeze man, relax. It's just weather lmao I’m relaxed. But my point was it’s 7 days out at least. Sure, it could shit the bed..probably better chance it does, but way too early to write anything off at this lead. No worries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18z GFS is a warm, strung out mess. Sad clown below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I won't be suprised at all if it just fails...intimated as much and got the 3rd degree for it. The Euro still passes at sub 990mb low between ACK and the BM, fwiw. It's just that like yesterday, it doesn't for some reason mechanize appreciable QPF on the western side. Interesting That could be the back ground negative interfering physics of a massive pattern change entering the processing. It's like the Euro's fighting it? What's actually happening is the scaffolding for a storm ( at all ) is rapidly in collapse between the 22nd and 25th. The western limb of the PNA in fact entering a -PNA construct ( robustly so, too ...) with such rapidity that the eastern limb is still vestigially carrying NW flow over Chicago where is the attempted amplification while that is happening. It's a race before a whiplash pattern sweeps the continent. I mean it is right on the heels of this. It kind of reminds me of the March 2014 storm - the one that only hit the Cape. The cold over the eastern Lakes, here and SE Canada, wrapped into it and rolled on up into the Maritime and left spring in it's wake. It was a bitter end to the year to miss the pig storm by 'that' much, only to do push-ups in mud season. So anyway ... these last 2 or 3 cycles of modeling appear to be giving into the eastward push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The Euro still passes at sub 990mb low between ACK and the BM, fwiw. It's just that like yesterday, it doesn't for some reason mechanize appreciable QPF on the western side. Interesting That could be the back ground negative interfering physics of a massive pattern change entering the processing. It's like the Euro's fighting it? What's actually happening is the scaffolding for a storm ( at all ) is rapidly in collapse between the 22nd and 25th. The western limb of the PNA in fact entering a -PNA construct ( robustly so, too ...) with such rapidity that the eastern limb is still vestigially carrying NW flow over Chicago with the attempted amplification. It's a race before a whiplash pattern sweeps the continent. I mean it is right on the heels of this. It kind of reminds me of the 2014 storm - the one that only hit the Cape. The cold over the eastern Lakes, here and SE Canada, wrapped in into it and rolled on up into the Maritime and it was spring the rest of the way that year. It was a bitter end to the year to miss the pig storm by 'that' much, only to do push-ups in mud season. So anyway ... these last 2 or 3 cycle of modeling appear to be giving into the eastward push. You were of a different ilk yesterday….but ok. Modeling got to you today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You were of a different ilk yesterday….but ok. Modeling got to you today. I told him there's still a system there? hello - Beyond that ... I'm just being as objective as I can regarding where this system stands as as of 5:30 pm on Saturday February 17 2024. Part of the issue with my own involvement thru yesterday was that I didn't have time to study the full suite of techniques I normally use. I was heads down at work all week... But last night I had a chance and there's some pretty prevalent red flags. I can assure you, I don't sway emotionally with modeling idiosyncrasies - if that's what you mean? To wit, this is not mere nuances to overcome in guidance. There are wholesale manifold changes in the Pacific that should not be ignored if one is either in prediction efforts, or just needs their expectations to be well founded. Do with it what you like. It's up to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 That’s an improvement on the GFS. I have a sneaking suspicion we see this go back to a good wintry threat . Watch the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s an improvement on the GFS. I have a sneaking suspicion we see this go back to a good wintry threat . Watch the ensembles It’s rain fropa on GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: The sun angle is definitely having a bigger affect on snow-cover. Now in late February. Wednesday 2/14: Today: Yup, pretty much nothing left in the yard here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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