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Someone has to mention Feb 23 obs


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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I agree. And although we're in a certain pattern, then it's been a somewhat shitty one for the last few winters, all we really need is a week of a pattern break to bring in the big dog. It's happened in the past and it will happen again in the future. There's so much talk of doom and gloom. Will get some good storms again, we'll get a good pattern again in another winter. It's just not now so everyone thinks that everything is horrible from this point forward. Anyway, if we got a big dog between now and then to March, then that's great. Not banking on it but there's always a chance.

Yes, its not a question of "if" but rather "when". As much as I don't want to have a to wait another whole year or more for a big one, its looking increasingly likely. It wouldn't even be so bad if we at least had entertaining weather in the summer time, but we just don't. Can't even get decent severe weather or hurricanes up here anymore. The 80s and 90s had much more severe weather events. So at least 10 out of 12 months of the year feature boring weather. It's gotten to the point where I look forward to those southerly screamers in the fall, because thats about all that I have to look forward to in terms of weather now. CC sucks.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A long while. 

It depends, Down this way, Its generally around the last week of March or the 1st 2 weeks into April on most years, Up north, It can be Mid May or as late as Memorial Day or even into the first week of June in some cases.

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Just now, dryslot said:

It depends, Down this way, Its generally around the last week of March or the 1st 2 weeks into April on most years, Up north, It can be Mid May or as late as Memorial Day or even into the first week of June in some cases.

The last week of March is still close to six weeks away for your area. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The last week of March is still close to six weeks away for your area. 

Well yes lol, You can't open water fish until 4/1, But i don't need 2' of snow on top of the ice to insulate it from melting off in March is what i'm getting at.

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’ll see if the trend can be our friend and if the GFS can get back to what it was showing yesterday and the day before

Were moving inside the 100hr mark on the models so its shit or get off the pot time for this one, But like the one that we whiffed on and CT/NY/NJ cashed on, It could be a wait and see deal until were closer.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Were moving inside the 100hr mark on the models so its shit or get off the pot time for this one, But like the one that we whiffed on and CT/NY/NJ cashed on, It could be a wait and see deal until were closer.

This is what I am thinking. I wish I understood the synoptic forces better in terms of what would help this to be a stronger, coastal low, that consolidate a little sooner.  But this is peak Climo time for snow up here so maybe something can go in our favor. I figure will have a good idea when we wake up tomorrow.

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9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This is what I am thinking. I wish I understood the synoptic forces better in terms of what would help this to be a stronger, coastal low, that consolidate a little sooner.  But this is peak Climo time for snow up here so maybe something can go in our favor. I figure will have a good idea when we wake up tomorrow.

A northern stream s/w diving in behind the s/w developing along the front and phasing would do it, But the airmass over us is not great and we would need a strong high over que or some confluence to prevent it from cutting too for snow further south.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

The ice fisherman are still driving on the ice up here in vehicles, Going to be a while.

Was out on Range Pond this weekend and was surprised to see the ice a solid 8-10".  Hoping this turns into a net gain for the areas that need it (Ski/Snomobile country).   I'd rather keep MBY dry at this point.  Already had like 4 or 5 different mud seasons here, my property is a mess.

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