Someone has to mention Feb 23 obs

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

When a threat busts the thread devolves for a few pages before people stop posting altogether.  The mods don’t lock threads on dead topics here.  

Well that’s because at a week out it’s very hard to say a threat is really or totally dead.  

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z GFS trended a little colder and looks much better for Maine than the 18z did.

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS trended a little colder and looks much better for Maine than the 18z did.

6Z back the other direction 

[MJO812]

It's basically a cold front 

These models are so horrible 

[CoastalWx]

Next 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's basically a cold front 

These models are so horrible 

That’s what happens when you track it 2 weeks out.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s what happens when you track it 2 weeks out.

Absolutely.  While modeling has been less than stellar in some instances, when you’re tracking something from 10 plus days out..it’s gonna be all over the place. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

FWIW, 06z ICON was worse as well. Ugh.

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next 

'24/'25?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

'24/'25?

Pretty much.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's basically a cold front 

These models are so horrible 

Not sure how people assess model performance ( I suspect by their own entertainment quotient -) but this thing for the 23rd/24th ?  the models began corrected toward the synoptic evolution we are seeing by the time this was crossing through the D7 horizon -

That's outstanding performance, non-subjectively.  

These are tools - just in case .  It's no different than pining over one's ratchet set every 6 hours. Haha... no seriously... it's that ridiculous. 

They were never intended for one of these social media "psychotropic" phenomenon - if anyone cares to plumb deeper into this, they should acquaint themselves with "The Social Dilemma," and/or other documentary coverage like the 60 Minutes expose into the premeditated engineering efforts by social media enterprises, a story that broke when engineers with morality and conscious came out about  creating an addictive medium.  You get through that course work ... you see something similar happening in here - if perhaps inadvertently slipping into the same phenomenon.

Folks get caught up in this as a adrenaline and dopamine release... some how, a codependent elation response does take place.  We joke about it but it's really actually true.  

 

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty much.

Hate to admit it, but I'm ready to stick a fork in it. Certainly wouldn't mind a big one the beginning of March, but I don't expect anything at the moment. I haven't suffered with a lack of snow compared to some, but the stop start nature of these winters is what starts to annoy me. The old car community is stirring as well, like they feel winter is just about done.

[codfishsnowman]

15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Hate to admit it, but I'm ready to stick a fork in it. Certainly wouldn't mind a big one the beginning of March, but I don't expect anything at the moment. I haven't suffered with a lack of snow compared to some, but the stop start nature of these winters is what starts to annoy me. The old car community is stirring as well, like they feel winter is just about done.

I agree with you as far putting a fork in it this winter. This makes the sixth consecutive winter below average to way below average.

[Hailstoned]

28 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Hate to admit it, but I'm ready to stick a fork in it. Certainly wouldn't mind a big one the beginning of March, but I don't expect anything at the moment. I haven't suffered with a lack of snow compared to some, but the stop start nature of these winters is what starts to annoy me. The old car community is stirring as well, like they feel winter is just about done.

Birds are also stirring. This weekend despite the chill, there was lots of what might be labeled, "spring anticipatory activity" along with accompanying bird calls.

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Birds are also stirring. This weekend despite the chill, there was lots of what might be labeled, "spring anticipatory activity" along with accompanying bird calls.

 

That’s always the case though…regardless of bad winter performances. 

[mahk_webstah]

When I woke up and read GYX this morning, I was a little optimistic.  But none of that in here...

Above normal temps and dry conditions continue for Thursday, but
clouds will increase during the day as low pressure move across the
Great Lakes, which will bring our next chance of accumulating
precip, and potentially multiple precip types, Thursday night
into Friday. There is still spread in the ensemble guidance, but
the latest 00Z model suite appears to be coming more on board
with a more dominant coastal low, which would bring the
potential for snow farther south, but for now the better chances
for accumulating snow will be the farther inland one goes.
This bears watching in the coming days and will see how trends
go, but at any rate, precip will wind down as snow showers
Friday night as colder air gets wrapped in as the low departs.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

When I woke up and read GYX this morning, I was a little optimistic.  But none of that in here...

Above normal temps and dry conditions continue for Thursday, but
clouds will increase during the day as low pressure move across the
Great Lakes, which will bring our next chance of accumulating
precip, and potentially multiple precip types, Thursday night
into Friday. There is still spread in the ensemble guidance, but
the latest 00Z model suite appears to be coming more on board
with a more dominant coastal low, which would bring the
potential for snow farther south, but for now the better chances
for accumulating snow will be the farther inland one goes.
This bears watching in the coming days and will see how trends
go, but at any rate, precip will wind down as snow showers
Friday night as colder air gets wrapped in as the low departs.

I'm optimistic we'll do alright up here, but when they say farther south, I'm thinking they're referring to us at this point. OP models have been putting us right on the line for several runs now.

[Hailstoned]

42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s always the case though…regardless of bad winter performances. 

March, yes, but not so much February. Also telling is sap season has "migrated" to February in recent years, as opposed to its traditional timing in March.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

March, yes, but not so much February. Also telling is sap season has "migrated" to February in recent years, as opposed to its traditional timing in March.

The issue is whether we get an actual coastal low.  In that case we are n ear the line but probably snow 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

March, yes, but not so much February. Also telling is sap season has "migrated" to February in recent years, as opposed to its traditional timing in March.

There’s nothing telling except it’s a shit winter.  They happen. Sometimes back to back too. Unfortunate and lousy, but we will recover in future winters.  
 

At least it was more than twice as good here so far as last year, but I realize that doesn’t apply to a lot of areas.  And It still isn’t anything good here, but small victories is all we have at this point. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

I'm optimistic we'll do alright up here, but when they say farther south, I'm thinking they're referring to us at this point. OP models have been putting us right on the line for several runs now.

Yes, That's there take, Snow in there southern zones.

[NW_of_GYX]

looks like garbage. Running out of can to kick

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Well, both the 12z GFS and Canadian are considerably more anemic. This Monday deal that the GFS has been trying to put together looks compelling - potentially... 

[weatherwiz]

An approaching cold front with a developing wave along it. Looks like enough cold air may remain wedged to yield potential for accumulating snow across the interior high terrain with a chilly rain elsewhere. 

[Hailstoned]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s nothing telling except it’s a shit winter.  They happen. Sometimes back to back too. Unfortunate and lousy, but we will recover in future winters.  
 

At least it was more than twice as good here so far as last year, but I realize that doesn’t apply to a lot of areas.  And It still isn’t anything good here, but small victories is all we have at this point. 

Then Winter must be having digestive issues. Been out a lot in the outhouse in recent years.

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

An approaching cold front with a developing wave along it. Looks like enough cold air may remain wedged to yield potential for accumulating snow across the interior high terrain with a chilly rain elsewhere. 

The 12z GFS still had advisory qpf in the areas that i'm concerned about, At this point, If we can get a few inches is all i'm looking for if that's all we will see, Some is better then nothing right now as the bar on this season is very low.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The 12z GFS still had advisory qpf in the areas that i'm concerned about, At this point, If we can get a few inches is all i'm looking for if that's all we will see, Some is better then nothing right now as the bar on this season is very low.

It's definitely much more favorable up your way. These scenarios of lows developing along an advancing front don't work out too often down this way, unless the low development happens to be south of our area. 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I wish we could get another 03/19/56 or April Fools Day 1997 late season big one to lift the spirits. Unfortunately nature is going to do what nature wants to do, and it doesn't matter how much we want it to happen.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's definitely much more favorable up your way. These scenarios of lows developing along an advancing front don't work out too often down this way, unless the low development happens to be south of our area. 

Its a bit warm with it developing late at my casa, But i don't care here but Western and Northern Maine, Yes, We need snow in those areas, I want to make the trip back up to western Maine again this week but its going to be contingent on getting snow there with this one.

[Snowcrazed71]

24 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I wish we could get another 03/19/56 or April Fools Day 1997 late season big one to lift the spirits. Unfortunately nature is going to do what nature wants to do, and it doesn't matter how much we want it to happen.

I agree. And although we're in a certain pattern, then it's been a somewhat shitty one for the last few winters, all we really need is a week of a pattern break to bring in the big dog. It's happened in the past and it will happen again in the future. There's so much talk of doom and gloom. Will get some good storms again, we'll get a good pattern again in another winter. It's just not now so everyone thinks that everything is horrible from this point forward. Anyway, if we got a big dog between now and then to March, then that's great. Not banking on it but there's always a chance.