WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 7:01 AM, H2Otown_WX said: Does that mean the MJO isn't just "all the rage" the last 7 years or so like Will said? It's been driving the bus lately? I still don't understand the MJO I need to read a lot about it. And I sure as hell can never understand the plots of it. Expand It’s just the latest catch phrase and mumbo jumbo that’s all. A few years ago it was the Asian or Siberian snow index, and before that it was the PDO, and then the QBO, and on and on. There is never any smoking gun. It’s a myriad of all things, and a give and take between so many of those things…so when people try to attribute just one thing(MJO, PDO, QBO ENSO etc etc..)that drives or affects the total pattern, it’s never gonna work. We honestly just don’t know enough, it’s that simple. The atmosphere constantly shows us that we are not even close to figuring it out regarding any long range predictions. It’s basically just a guess in the end. Which probably is still a good thing, since there are few mysteries anymore, but this long range weather idea surely still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:00 AM, ice1972 said: At least CA keeps getting the "atmospheric rivers"........I swear growing up in the Bay Area I never heard it called that and I wonder if you guys here ever heard "bomb cyclone" or "polar vortex" after every noreaster or cold snap.......anyway.....heres to Sping 2024!!!! Expand Never heard any of that stuff til the last few years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 1:37 PM, codfishsnowman said: Never heard any of that stuff til the last few years Expand It’s just media rhetoric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:00 AM, ice1972 said: At least CA keeps getting the "atmospheric rivers"........I swear growing up in the Bay Area I never heard it called that and I wonder if you guys here ever heard "bomb cyclone" or "polar vortex" after every noreaster or cold snap.......anyway.....heres to Sping 2024!!!! Expand I think those are valid met terms that the ever-hyping media has grabbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 1:10 PM, WinterWolf said: It’s just the latest catch phrase and mumbo jumbo that’s all. A few years ago it was the Asian or Siberian snow index, and before that it was the PDO, and then the QBO, and on and on. There is never any smoking gun. It’s a myriad of all things, and a give and take between so many of those things…so when people try to attribute just one thing(MJO, PDO, QBO ENSO etc etc..)that drives or affects the total pattern, it’s never gonna work. We honestly just don’t know enough, it’s that simple. The atmosphere constantly shows us that we are not even close to figuring it out regarding any long range predictions. It’s basically just a guess in the end. Which probably is still a good thing, since there are few mysteries anymore, but this long range weather idea surely still is. Expand Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 2:45 PM, Ginx snewx said: Yep Expand Let's hope for this pattern to switch for the next winter season. Eventually has to go back to that same pattern we used to have. Let's hope it's sooner than later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's just a shit Pacific period...shame on me for misinterpreting that (again) and thinking we could still have a decent winter. I was wrong. But it's not because of the El Nino...people saying that are also wrong. Expand I think people are going to scale back on making winter forecasts . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 3:34 PM, MJO812 said: I think people are going to scale back on making winter forecasts . Expand They should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 That 12z GFS run would be perfect for the areas that still winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:10 PM, dryslot said: That 12z GFS run would be perfect for the areas that still winter. Expand Please tell me the County gets in on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:15 PM, WinterWolf said: Please tell me the County gets in on it? Expand Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 12z GFS. Hey, a clown worthy of posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:16 PM, dryslot said: Yes Expand We pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:30 PM, WinterWolf said: We pray. Expand Its needed, I've seen 1.5" since 01/29 here, Up there has not been much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:34 PM, dryslot said: Its needed, I've seen 1.5" since 01/29 here, Up there has not been much better. Expand Oh ya they need it….our local friends told us don’t bother coming up currently, it’s beat up, and not worth it. A good 12+ snowstorm would get em back in biz in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:10 PM, dryslot said: That 12z GFS run would be perfect for the areas that still winter. Expand Great run. Mutes the torch as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:20 PM, AstronomyEnjoyer said: 12z GFS. Hey, a clown worthy of posting. Expand That looks like shit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 5:59 PM, ice1972 said: That looks like shit Expand For you, Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:46 PM, WinterWolf said: Oh ya they need it….our local friends told us don’t bother coming up currently, it’s beat up, and not worth it. A good 12+ snowstorm would get em back in biz in short order. Expand We had no issues, Do you have scratcher's on your new sled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 Let’s see if the euro joins a bit of a trend to better for late week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:12 PM, mahk_webstah said: Let’s see if the euro joins a bit of a trend to better for late week Expand Not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 Rains to Maines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 Let’s see what the eps says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:26 PM, dryslot said: Not this run. Expand Weak coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2024 Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 3:52 PM, WinterWolf said: They should. Expand Defention of a loser's lament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 We need more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2024 Author Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:44 PM, MJO812 said: We need more snow Expand I'm fine with just moving on at this point. If something pops up, great, but I'm done looking at long range charts and chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 4:47 PM, wdrag said: Good analysis. Clearly the GGEM and GfS have finally shown a se trend. Nothing set in stone but this potential is on the table. Maybe only elevations but i can’t rule out anything including wet snow NYC if this closes off near NYC in the fast developing passage Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Defention of a loser's lament. Expand Wasn’t meaning you..just think it’s kind of a waste of effort. But to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2024 Share Posted February 18, 2024 On 2/18/2024 at 6:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm fine with just moving on at this point. If something pops up, great, but I'm done looking at long range charts and chasing. Expand Unless it’s a major event, I’m out too. But obviously there’s still like 5-6 weeks left for something like that. The problem with “being out” in New England in snow threats and cold in favor of warmth is that it rarely ever acquiesces to that particular demand. 2012 was a rare exception. Usually it’s mostly a shit sandwich which then makes me start rooting for snow stat-padder events because it beats 41F mist with a “nice” day being 54F self-destructing sunshine day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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