40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Pretty good cross guidance support for a biggie Feb 24th, so let's see how mother mature manufactures a way to access that last crevice with what remains of my Outlook to result in the least snow imaginable for SNE during my identified 2/11 to 3/3 window. 4 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The Euro will suck us all in until day 2, then 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Oooo, Tippy gonna be mad… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12z ens source/means continued trend of more coherence re the 23/24th. 18z GEFs wobbling 2 mb less but ... either way is obviously negotiable at this range. GEPs may the larger relative change of all three, with a bigger gathering in emergence and strength between the prior 00z and this 12z. The EPS remains the most impressive of all three; having a pearling of members in a near coastal spread that are excessively deep 180+ hrs. This is quite impressive seeing such a high member count at that sort of range, with these kind of pressure depths subtending beneath 965 mb = not sure that is achievable without some sort of more proficient N/stream infusion/phasing. The Euro op. probably exposes those other members that are less dispersive. Tho the mean position at 186 hours (blw) is over the GOM, notice the spread back W/SW with member potency... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 18z GEFS looks pretty sweet. This looks like a Friday deal, so probably looking at a Tuesday First Call and Thursday Final. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 All three major ensemble means are lock-in-step between the islands and BM. Impressive....god, don't do it, Ray...please stop. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I thought you waved the white flag on the season, No? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 18z GEFS looks pretty sweet. This looks like a Friday deal, so probably looking at a Tuesday First Call and Thursday Final. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All three major ensemble means are lock-in-step between the islands and BM. Impressive....god, don't do it, Ray...please stop. Lmfao….still a week out, but impressive signal to be sure. Proceed with extreme caution my friend. 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: I thought you waved the white flag on the season, No? He’s a weenie like everybody else here, and he sees a viable signal, so he has twitches in his briefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 45 minutes ago, dryslot said: I thought you waved the white flag on the season, No? No, I have always said after the 2/24 threat its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I have always said after the 2/24 threat its over. I don't cancel winter until April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 2/11 to 3/3 was my second big dog window from last fall, so no way did I ever call winter before 2/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmfao….still a week out, but impressive signal to be sure. Proceed with extreme caution my friend. He’s a weenie like everybody else here, and he sees a viable signal, so he has twitches in his briefs. I'll check back in a few days, Until then, Meh, One mod event won't get the rat out of the trap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't cancel winter until April. You should've cancelled it in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Well GFS, that's one way of making sure the storm is on the 24th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Looks like the GFS went Fraud 5 with a NORLUN after it rains on the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I have always said after the 2/24 threat its over. No you did then caveated the 24th/it's in the record 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No you did then caveated the 24th/it's in the record No, I did not. This period has always been the last threat....its been my stance since the fall, dude. February 2024 Outlook February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. *****The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic.***** Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/11/2024 at 10:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still see no signs of this ghost-blizzard everyone keeps honking over. Don't get me wrong, this is one of my identified windows, but I don't see many signs of life on guidance. On 2/11/2024 at 7:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have a sneaking suspicion that Tuesday will account for most of what falls the rest of the season....which is fine because I already have one foot in the fantasy draft room. On 2/12/2024 at 7:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take my outlook and wipe your ass with it for February....sure, pattern looks good, but I just don't see it working out. On 2/12/2024 at 4:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Please. Just. Let. It. End. No. Mas. On 2/13/2024 at 10:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see nothing interesting. No one is talking about your outlook. Talking about the here and now. You quit on us end of story. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Different than the refresher powdery event of Sat Feb 17, and this past Tuesdays Feb 13 wetter snowstorm, it still has possibilities for adding to our winter snow totals with modeled "potential" for half a foot or more for the I84 corridor inclusive of the Poconos-extreme nw NJ interior sections se NYS-CT. Possibilities even exist for an inch or four down to I95 and NYC though for now, odds are less. This could be one warmer more rainy event the 22nd and then a following rapidly intensifying coastal storm Fri-Sat the 23rd-24th. As generally usual higher terrain-inland best chance for snow. A strong short wave in the eastern Pacific this weekend will move through the southwest USA early this coming week and probably be ingested into a series of northern stream Canadian short eaves that dive southeast into Midwest and form a sharp amplifying trough over the northeast USA by next weekend. Details tbd. This probably will be of NYC subforum interest for some of us the next few days as winter potential refuses to go away. Added 10 to 1 SLR, 24 hour 00z/17 global ensembles and the NWS 04z/17 very low chance 3+" snow D6-7, to look back upon when whatever transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I am very concerned about the airmass and lack of a high to the north. I hope that changes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 26 minutes ago, George001 said: I am very concerned about the airmass and lack of a high to the north. I hope that changes. Welcome to winter ‘24! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 As much as I want to buy into these bombing solutions, mother nature seems unable to ignite anything close to what models depict even within a 4 day lead. Not sure why it's just an observation that we've seemed to lack the ability over the last several years for ingredients to come together. There's like a zone of negative interference from eastern PA to western NS where cyclogenesis is failing to develop. Maritimes are racking up this season and I kind of expect this event to go their way as well. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: No one is talking about your outlook. Talking about the here and now. You quit on us end of story. I'm not sure why you seem to be so disoriented, but venting frustration over a dearth of model "cinema", as Tip would say, is not a forecast. Unlike you, I go to great lengths to ensure "the record" is very clear as pertains to my expectations. That said, gun to head, I don't think the 24th works out in terms of a large event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, George001 said: I am very concerned about the airmass and lack of a high to the north. I hope that changes. It won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Ray had to go and make the thread already. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Ray had to go and make the thread already. My hopes are pretty low...I have one foot in the draft room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure why you seem to be so disoriented, but venting frustration over a dearth of model "cinema", as Tip would say, is not a forecast. Unlike you, I go to great lengths to ensure "the record" is very clear as pertains to my expectations. That said, gun to head, I don't think the 24th works out in terms of a large event. What a bunch of BS Ray lol. You cancelled saw no other threats nothing to do with OP runs. Cmon man you are being disingenuous. Unlike me huh. Hey thats more bullshit. Sorry to call you out but you definitely quit . Go start writing next year as this year was a waste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 CT folks high off snow still. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: CT folks high off snow still. Yea our Ron Washington moments are 15” in a week when the ematt crowd wouldn’t even get off the couch to break out the lines for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now