CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 1 hour ago, Bhs1975 said: Where gonna have like 5 active at a time in August. What do you think is the first named storm in August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 56 minutes ago, Tezeta said: zzz Sleeps me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 56 minutes ago, Tezeta said: zzz wake up babe new wave just dropped Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. 1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A westward-moving tropical wave located a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Hagen/Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 This is what we are supposed to wake up for? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 57 minutes ago, Tezeta said: This is what we are supposed to wake up for? Yes bhai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 This is far more interesting to me than any typical June homegrown slop. If we're getting this kind of MDR signal in late June, what the hell is September gonna bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 39 minutes ago, cptcatz said: This is far more interesting to me than any typical June homegrown slop. If we're getting this kind of MDR signal in late June, what the hell is September gonna bring? Total moggercanes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 6 hours ago, cptcatz said: This is far more interesting to me than any typical June homegrown slop. If we're getting this kind of MDR signal in late June, what the hell is September gonna bring? For now at least, it looks like it/they will struggle against early July climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 11 hours ago, Tezeta said: This is what we are supposed to wake up for? That may be a wake up call for Campeche and later, Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 6 hours ago, cptcatz said: This is far more interesting to me than any typical June homegrown slop. If we're getting this kind of MDR signal in late June, what the hell is September gonna bring? It may be a notable September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 4 hours ago, Maxwell03 said: For now at least, it looks like it/they will struggle against early July climo 4 hours ago, Jebman said: It may be a notable September. 15 hours ago, Tezeta said: This is what we are supposed to wake up for? When do you think we will have our first moggercane (cat 3+)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 15 hours ago, Tezeta said: This is what we are supposed to wake up for? Never began anyway ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A westward-moving tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development once the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Hagen/Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 From what I saw elsewhere there’s a wave that is progged to move off Africa on Thursday that has some potential for development in the MDR per latest model consensus. Meanwhile, look how quiet it has been to this point relative to normal in the Pacific and N Indian (a mere 20%) despite the overall oceans’ near record warmth: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 On 6/24/2024 at 10:23 AM, GaWx said: I’m assuming this is meaningless as far as forecast value for the meat of the season (i.e., not at all “season cancel”) and we did have a close call with Invest 92L off GA, but I imagine it could imply a little something for the total # of NS this season (perhaps shave off 1 NS) in a season with extremely high numbers of NS being forecasted. Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1): 2024: ? (1 so far) 2023: 3 2022: 3 2021: 5 2020: 4 2019: 1 2018: 1 2017: 2 2016: 3 2015: 2 2014: 1 2013: 2 2012: 4 2011: 1 2010: 1 2009: 0 2008: 1 2007: 2 2006: 1 2005: 2 2004: 0 2003: 1 2002: 0 2001: 1 2000: 0 1999: 1 1998: 0 1997: 2 1996: 1 1995: 1 AVG 1995-2023: 1.5 Any thoughts? Even if there are no more NS by Jul 1st, 2024 is only 1/2 a NS behind the 1995-2023 avg and we just missed already having 2. Always love these statistical posts. I didn’t even realize the last few years were that active that early. Still, I do think it has little meaning especially since we have an anomalously favorable setup coming for the MDR in early July. The AEWs have been robust thus far and I don’t expect that to change. SAL dominates now but you just need a window or two for activity to pick up. We nearly had two additional NS with 92L & 93L. 5 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: When do you think we will have our first moggercane (cat 3+)? Probably early August. Anything sooner and that would be a blaring signal of a big season incoming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 It appears to me that the new runs (12Z GFS and CMC) are developing what is already just offshore Africa. They both have a TS in the Windward Islands on Mon July 1st. If these happen to be right, the Atlantic will get a 2nd TS by July 1st. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Probably early August. Anything sooner and that would be a blaring signal of a big season incoming. What name do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 The 12Z UKMET has nothing classified as a TC through the end of the run (day 7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z UKMET has nothing classified as a TC through the end of the run (day 7). It’s over for tropicalcyclonecels. wonder why this year had a rather slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1. The SE Caribbean tropical wave has just been designated as Invest 94L fwiw. 2. The 12Z GEFS/GEPS have a rather strong signal for a TC impacting the Lesser Antilles ~7/1-3. 3. The 12Z Euro has no TC unlike the prior two runs. Edit: But 12Z EPS is most active run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. The SE Caribbean tropical wave has just been designated as Invest 94L fwiw. 2. The 12Z GEFS/GEPS have a rather strong signal for a TC impacting the Lesser Antilles ~7/1-3. 3. The 12Z Euro has no TC unlike the prior two runs. It might be lifefuel for 94l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 This will be tracking with an ULAC, just something to keep an eye on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 1. The SE Caribbean tropical wave has just been designated as Invest 94L fwiw. 2. The 12Z GEFS/GEPS have a rather strong signal for a TC impacting the Lesser Antilles ~7/1-3. 3. The 12Z Euro has no TC unlike the prior two runs. As noted, it isn't season cancel. Looking at the models, the wave coming off Africa could be a 1996 Bertha type system,, a rare July storm for ECUSA. Too early to get excited about something over a week away. It may have changed with the new and more active climatology, but June/July together used to average just over 1 named storm. Follow the lead of GaWx abd WxWatcher, who do not post simply to post. EDIT TO ADD: For newcomers, WeatherNerds (image below), Tropical Tidbits and College of DuPage are good, free websites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: As noted, it isn't season cancel. Looking at the models, the wave coming off Africa could be a 1996 Bertha type system,, a rare July storm for ECUSA. Too early to get excited about something over a week away. It may have changed with the new and more active climatology, but June/July together used to average just over 1 named storm. Follow the lead of GaWx abd WxWatcher, who do not post simply to post. Wait Beryl might be a mogger (cat 3+)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 I'm not sure about whether the system that has a better chance to get named than the current invest (tracks w/o lows show what the ensembles predict for 94L, pretty meh) gets to Cat 3 or above. July Cat 3s are rare, but not unheard of. I use the word 'major', not 'mogger'. I think Dennis 19 years aqgo was the last US July major, I could be wrong, But I don't think I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 these gen z hurricane kids are going to make me have to bust out the urban dictionary 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 1 minute ago, Tezeta said: these gen z hurricane kids are going to make me have to bust out the urban dictionary I'm a millennial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 32 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I'm not sure about whether the system that has a better chance to get named than the current invest (tracks w/o lows show what the ensembles predict for 94L, pretty meh) gets to Cat 3 or above. July Cat 3s are rare, but not unheard of. I use the word 'major', not 'mogger'. Fair enough, I just prefer mogger for a cat 3+ 32 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think Dennis 19 years aqgo was the last US July major, I could be wrong, But I don't think I am. Bertha 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 think this will develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Could this be the July major hurricane we surmised this spring was possible due to the warm sea surface temperatures? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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