GaWx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I started an Invest 92L thread: @WxWatcher007@ed2kayak 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 If anything does develop from the 40% 7 day orange, 18Z Ensembles from WeatherNerds shows the new low landfalling in the exact same area Alberto will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: If anything does develop from the 40% 7 day orange, 18Z Ensembles from WeatherNerds shows the new low landfalling in the exact same area Alberto will. It’s a lot of rain for Mexico. Feast it famine like @wxmx said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Thus far the season is delivering exactly as expected. West based activity with lots of threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 June landfalls NE MX N of 20N/ENSO/E US winter 2024: Alberto TS + possible 2nd/likely Nina/TBD 2016: Danielle TS/mod Niña/mild 2011: Arlene TS/mod Niña/mild 2010: Alex H/strong Niña/cold 2005: Bret TS/weak Niña/normal 1959: Beulah TD/neutral/mild 1958: Alma TS/weak Nino/cool to cold 1954: Alice H/weak Niña/normal 1936: #2 TS/neutral/mild 1924: #1 TS/mod Niña/normal to mild 1922: #1 TS/cold neutral/cool to mild 1865: #2 TS/weak Nino/no data The # of CONUS hurricane landfalls for those seasons averaged near normal (2.2) but were all over the map (0 to 6). Year: CONUS H landfalls 2024: TBD 2016: 2 2011: 1 2010: 0 2005: 6 1959: 3 1958: 1 1954: 3 1936: 3 1924: 3 1922: 0 1865: 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Looking more and more likely we’ll get 3 NS before June goes out. Obviously nothing strong but a fast start to a potentially very busy season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Looking more and more likely we’ll get 3 NS before June goes out. Obviously nothing strong but a fast start to a potentially very busy season I don't think next BoC will be named. PTC2 or TD #03L unless the models are clueless, and I don't think they are. 92L is already a tropical cyclone, if maybe a bit hybrid and badly sheared. But the recon will find a closed LLC, even if half of it is exposed. Anyone have a recent ASCAT pass for 92L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Check out the GFS system in the BoC or Caribbean starting in about a week, A couple of the Caribbean ones find the weakness over the C. Gulf and come up into the N Gulf beyind. Looking at op fields on GFS, the slop gyre gets pushed W and disappears while the 7 day orange id forming, pushing that, if it does get tagged as an invest or PTC, due W. But it looks like a new gyre is forming as the new ensemble lows appera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Check out the GFS system in the BoC or Caribbean starting in about a week, A couple of the Caribbean ones find the weakness over the C. Gulf and come up into the N Gulf beyind. Looking at op fields on GFS, the slop gyre gets pushed W and disappears while the 7 day orange id forming, pushing that, if it does get tagged as an invest or PTC, due W. But it looks like a new gyre is forming as the new ensemble lows appera. Euro ensembles have a few lows of their own at the same time, and the ones that develop in the Caribbean come into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: This is @GaWx, he was on this a week ago, I'll do the threat for 93L, Hijo de Alberto, which probably never gets named. Which may not even be an invest. Is that Steven Tyler through a filter? You spotted it first, you should start a new thread when you think it is appropriate. Yes it is Steven Tyler how did you work it out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 16 minutes ago, Gonzalo00 said: Yes it is Steven Tyler how did you work it out because it looks like him, except the lips are more exaggerated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: because it looks like him, except the lips are more exaggerated. I exaggerated them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Is there another system trying to form north east of Invest 92L? Low shear area. Shows on water vapor and clouds are just starting to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 6 hours ago, LawdogGRNJ said: Is there another system trying to form north east of Invest 92L? Low shear area. Shows on water vapor and clouds are just starting to pop. 40 to 50W? or 60-70W? 40 tp 50W is eye catching, there is a very narrow slot of lower shear in a trough. It would need more than a few days with improving conditions. I think it stays a frontal trough myself. Over 30C water would help, fronts either side of Florida could do that. Even a front more than a ways E of the Bahamas can do it. That one, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 GFS ensembles between 7 and 10 days out, more members than not develop some kind of low in the EPAC, BoC or Caribbean. Bit odd, not sure which cycle the CPC GEFS forecast is, but MJO is neutral or slightly into 1/2 on the various members. A lot of the GEFS lows are weak, of course. Euro ensembles fewer lows, around 20. 5 of those from the Atlantic, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 40 to 50W? or 60-70W? 40 tp 50W is eye catching, there is a very narrow slot of lower shear in a trough. It would need more than a few days with improving conditions. I think it stays a frontal trough myself. Over 30C water would help, fronts either side of Florida could do that. Even a front more than a ways E of the Bahamas can do it. That one, not so much. About 35N, 70W now. Off the NC coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 After all the excitement of Alberto and the heavy rain we ended up with from it, I am positively JONESING for another tropical storm NOT a hurricane. I'd love another Alberto type system to spin up, not damaging anything, just bring more happy rains to Texas again. It was so much fun tracking that harmless TS. Lets have TS Beryl form, hit Corpus head on with a foot of overwash, no fatalities, some good rains there, then the harmless remnants move over Buda steadily, none of this spinning around like Allison, that can be very bad, just a nice steady progression of the remnants, I get a couple inches of rain and it moves on, waters Texas then dies. A nice harmless tropical storm, maybe a couple feet of dune erosion at worst on the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 I almost started a 93L thread, but I don't think it even gets a number, let alone named. 2 inches immediate coast between CRP and BRO, an relatively small area around La Pesca getting 10 plus inches per GFS. Looks like all the 18Z Euro ensembles get it, I don't see a named storm in the group. A couple of the GEFS might get it. A hint of something w/o any deep convection near 20.5N, 93.5W, CIMMS analyzes decent low and mid level vorticity. Somewhat curved band of convection NNW to E with cold cloud tops. CIMMS analysis shows rather hostile shear from the S but there is divergence and there isn't dry air to the S. GFS and Canadian quickly lower shear, in less than 24 hours, it should be in favorable shear and building an anticyclone, If it had more than about 36 hours over water, it'd probably do something. Ensemble tracks are well clustered and SHIPS gets it to 30 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Jfl no way is 93l getting named mogged by the dry air and wind shear sal likely will mog any waves coming off Africa for the next few weeks correct me if I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 3 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Jfl no way is 93l getting named mogged by the dry air and wind shear sal likely will mog any waves coming off Africa for the next few weeks correct me if I am wrong Pack it up, it's jova Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions appear to have become a little more marginal for development of this system as it moves slowly northwestward, but a tropical depression could still form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sunday night. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas through the end of the weekend. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 90 miles northeast of Tampico, Mexico. Some slight additional development of this system is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 90 miles northeast of Tampico, Mexico. Some slight additional development of this system is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent JFL it never began for 93L It’s so jova Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low pressure area centered about 20 miles southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. The low is expected to move inland within the next few hours, and the chance of tropical cyclone formation is decreasing. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to continue through tonight across portions of northeastern Mexico, leading to localized flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 GFS ensembles suggest another 93L, starting deep in the BoC in 2 days. By six days, a few weak Atlantic lows are approaching the Caribbean. Almost all die over in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GFS ensembles suggest another 93L, starting deep in the BoC in 2 days. By six days, a few weak Atlantic lows are approaching the Caribbean. Almost all die over in the Caribbean. So it never began for them anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 51 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: So it never began for them anyway? If a tree falls in the forest... EDIT TO ADD: EURO ensembles similar to the GFS ensembles, with systems entering the Caribbean at 9 or 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: If a tree falls in the forest... EDIT TO ADD: EURO ensembles similar to the GFS ensembles, with systems entering the Caribbean at 9 or 10 days. FR Beryl might unironically mog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: If a tree falls in the forest... EDIT TO ADD: EURO ensembles similar to the GFS ensembles, with systems entering the Caribbean at 9 or 10 days. It's jova 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low pressure area centered just off of the coast of Mexico near La Pesca. The low is expected to move inland within the next few hours, and the chance of tropical cyclone formation is decreasing. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely to continue through tonight across portions of northeastern Mexico, leading to localized flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I’m assuming this is meaningless as far as forecast value for the meat of the season (i.e., not at all “season cancel”) and we did have a close call with Invest 92L off GA, but I imagine it could imply a little something for the total # of NS this season (perhaps shave off 1 NS) in a season with extremely high numbers of NS being forecasted. Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1): 2024: ? (1 so far) 2023: 3 2022: 3 2021: 5 2020: 4 2019: 1 2018: 1 2017: 2 2016: 3 2015: 2 2014: 1 2013: 2 2012: 4 2011: 1 2010: 1 2009: 0 2008: 1 2007: 2 2006: 1 2005: 2 2004: 0 2003: 1 2002: 0 2001: 1 2000: 0 1999: 1 1998: 0 1997: 2 1996: 1 1995: 1 AVG 1995-2023: 1.5 Any thoughts? Even if there are no more NS by Jul 1st, 2024 is only 1/2 a NS behind the 1995-2023 avg and we just missed already having 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 Where gonna have like 5 active at a time in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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