2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheDreamTraveler]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z GEFS has a significant increase in the number of members with a tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean next week….interesting. Another TC or two this year would not be surprising with the still very warm W Caribbean and when looking back at the last 30 years or so.

Would be wild if we got a December system this year. 2020 and 2021 didn't even have that. Quite rare to have anything develop. Last time we had anything develop was a subtropical storm in December during 2013's season which was a very quiet year overall. You then have to go back to 2007, 2005, 2004 and 2003 for December systems.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

"Category 3 Milton"

[WxWatcher007]

I don’t see it being downgraded in postseason reanalysis. 

[Supercane]

On 7/2/2024 at 7:40 PM, Supercane said:

Take this as you will, but I have been working on a model to predict Atlantic ACE, using data as far back as 1975, and for the 2024 season it is forecasting an ACE of 152 (90% chance it will be between 102-202). Given the action so far, I would assume the season ends up on the higher end of this range, but it is an underwhelming projection compared to others. A key reason for this is that the Atlantic SST pattern has become a bit less favorable during the past month. 

Below is the plot that shows how the model would have verified in previous years (2022 and 2023 outputs were made in real time).

Bumping, as this ended up being quite accurate. The season's total ACE has ended up around 162. While active, it was far less active than the 230-240 ACE that was forecast by CSU and TSR.

Ultimately, what is most important about a season is the impact, and on that metric 2024 ranks high. Obviously, total activity =/= impact, so whether or not landfall probabilities can be assessed on a seasonal timescale remains to be seen.

[GaWx]

On 4/7/2024 at 12:58 AM, GaWx said:

There is good reason to hope that this April CSU forecast is going to end up too high based on past very active April CSU predictions. They’ve been making April predictions since 1995. I see a pretty clear pattern when they’ve gone very active in April:

1. # NS: They’re predicting 23. Prior to this the highest they predicted in April was 17-19 (five times). Four of those five progs ended up too high. For those 5, they averaged 2.8 too high.

2. NS days: They’re predicting 115. Prior to this the highest they predicted in April was 85-95 (four times). All four of those progs ended up too high. The highest actual of these four was only 58 and they averaged a whopping 40.5 too high!

3. # H: They’re predicting 11. The prior highest predicted in April was 9 (six times). All of those 6 progs ended up too high by an average of 3.

4. H days: They’re predicting 45. The prior highest progs in April were 40-45 (five times). Of these five, four progs came in too high. The five averaged a whopping 19 too high!

5. # MH: They’re predicting 5, which they’ve predicted three other times in April. All three of those progs came in too high by an average of 2.33.

6. MH days: They’re predicting 13, which is tied for the highest ever predicted in April. They’ve progged 10-13 five times. Of those five, three progs were too high. The five averaged 3.25 too high.

7. ACE: They’re predicting 210. The prior highest April progs were 160-183 (five times). Of these five, all progs ended up too high with even the closest being 34 too high! The five averaged a whopping 85.8 too high!

Conclusion: If I were a betting man, I’d short CSU’s April ‘24’s forecast overall, especially NS Days, # H, and ACE.

Bump. 
-# of NS is at 18, which is 5 below April CSU prediction.

-# of NS days is at 78, which is way below the predicted 116

-ACE is at 162, which is way below the predicted 210.

 So, 2024 was still another extremely April CSU forecast that verified too active.

[MANDA]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Bump. 
-# of NS is at 18, which is 5 below April CSU prediction.

-# of NS days is at 78, which is way below the predicted 116

-ACE is at 162, which is way below the predicted 210.

 So, 2024 was still another extremely April CSU forecast that verified too active.

It was the lull right at the height of the season that killed the hyper active storm totals & ACE numbers that were forecast.  Had that part of the season performed closer to or even a little above normal those with the bigger numbers would have gotten much closer.  Season memorable for all the U.S. impacts and being back loaded.

If you take out highly anomalous Beryl the ACE total would have been even lower.  I know we don't take that out but just pointing it out.  Beryl was about 35 ACE points (biggest ACE producer of the season) in an area that is usually very unfavorable in early July.