2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

For W Caribbean cherry, 12Z UKMET is even further N as it doesn’t even cross the Yucatan on NW trek into middle of the Gulf:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.5N  80.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 05.11.2024   96  17.5N  80.9W     1004            31
    0000UTC 06.11.2024  108  18.5N  82.8W     1004            33
    1200UTC 06.11.2024  120  20.8N  84.7W     1004            31
    0000UTC 07.11.2024  132  21.9N  87.2W     1003            33
    1200UTC 07.11.2024  144  23.8N  88.5W     1002            37
    0000UTC 08.11.2024  156  24.7N  89.7W     1002            35
    1200UTC 08.11.2024  168  25.4N  91.4W     1004            37

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For W Caribbean cherry, 12Z UKMET is even further N as it doesn’t even cross the Yucatan on NW trek into middle of the Gulf:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.5N  80.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 05.11.2024   96  17.5N  80.9W     1004            31
    0000UTC 06.11.2024  108  18.5N  82.8W     1004            33
    1200UTC 06.11.2024  120  20.8N  84.7W     1004            31
    0000UTC 07.11.2024  132  21.9N  87.2W     1003            33
    1200UTC 07.11.2024  144  23.8N  88.5W     1002            37
    0000UTC 08.11.2024  156  24.7N  89.7W     1002            35
    1200UTC 08.11.2024  168  25.4N  91.4W     1004            37

Never really develops it though....maybe a weak TS

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Never really develops it though....maybe a weak TS

Yeah it doesn’t develop it much, but the UKMET normally downplays strength significantly before a TC forms.

[GaWx]

NHC is playing catch up with this one approaching the Azores:

North Atlantic:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores
has been producing increased convection near its center over the
past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds
to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical
storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days.
Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional information on this system is available in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[GaWx]

The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon.

[purduewx80]

There are wild differences with how this impacts weather in the Southeast next week. GEPS and increasing EPS members are as bad as another PRE and follow-up TC in some areas impacted by Helene, but GEFS are much drier with stronger ridging. Aside from not knowing where the Caribbean system eventually develops and tracks, the Pacific pattern and wave cutting off in the Southwest are the other parts of the uncertainty. 

[Boston Bulldog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon.

Organization is there, convection remains quite shallow. I think they could have upgraded at 5pm, but NHC might be looking for more robust convection before doing so.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still.

[wdrag]

SW Caribbean is 80% prob now in 7 day, 40% in 2.  N central Atlc is 50% per 8PM TWO. 

[yoda]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

The storm nearing the Azores is now Invest 96L. This could become Patty soon.

STS Patty it is this morning 

[tarheelwx]

Euro has had several runs with the system in the Caribbean coming north with a Helene like path. We’ve had about half an inch of rain here near GSO since Helene and really need some rain. I know the mountains don’t need a tropical system though.
TW


.

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

Euro has had several runs with the system in the Caribbean coming north with a Helene like path. We’ve had about half an inch of rain here near GSO since Helene and really need some rain. I know the mountains don’t need a tropical system though.
TW


.

This became Invest 97L yesterday. Most models have it becoming a TC but interestingly the 0Z UKMET dropped it for TCG. I think it will be wrong. It still has a surface low, regardless.

[GaWx]

Turn back your clocks!

Here’s the 1AM EST TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical 
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the 
Azores Islands.

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. 
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while 
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and 
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the 
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. 
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress 
of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled 
to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along 
with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern 
Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day 
or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early 
this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low 
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple 
of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, 
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[GaWx]

 Based on preliminary stats, October of 2024 had the 5th highest ACE on record for any Oct back to 1851:

1. 1878: 87.8

2. 1894: 76.1

3. 2016: 71.3

4. 1893: 67.5

5. 2024: 66.8 (preliminary)

6. 1963: 63.1

[TheDreamTraveler]

12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol

[GaWx]

New one on TWO that most models at least hint at:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop near the
northern Leeward Islands around the middle of the week. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time as it moves
generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS still wants to pop another hurricane in the western Caribbean in a week or so.

[TheDreamTraveler]

lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing.

[Floydbuster]

I wouldn't doubt another system in mid to late November. This is a definite backlogged hurricane season.

[cptcatz]

GFS isn't on an island with this next possible one. Today's 12z CMC shows a banafide storm and EPS shows a solid signal. 

[purduewx80]

Curious to see how the next western Caribbean system plays out with a strong sub-tropical ridge over the Bahamas and a stout -NAO potentially developing. The Pacific pattern is what ends up being important for a northward track due to how it affects the breakdown of ridging from the Yucatan channel into the western Gulf. 

[wdrag]

Looking interesting for TC Cuba-Fl northeastward about the 20th... 00z/11 GEFS solid D9 signal.... GEPS a little bit, and EPS again lagging.  

[hawkeye_wx]

It looks like there's a pretty decent chance the Caribbean system will try to develop.  How strong it gets may come down to how much land interaction there is.  Models are showing it at least scraping Central America.

[FPizz]

What is the ACE for the season now?

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

What is the ACE for the season now?

159.8

[Normandy]

with the active November on going, we might have a top hurricane season if all time when it’s all said and done. Unthinkable considering where we were in July and august lol

[cardinalland]

This season has the 13th highest ACE since 1950 (so out of 75 seasons) which puts it in the top 20% in that period. To reach the top 10% it would have to attain an ACE of 182, which is unlikely but not impossible given the anticipated slow movement and high strength of this new system. Either way, we've experienced quite an active season. To reach top 10 in this period an ACE of 166 is needed, which is likely.

[cardinalland]

If the Carib system becomes a hurricane, it will become the 12th in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other Atlantic seasons have seen this quantity of hurricanes on record: 2005 (15), 2020 (14), 1969 (12) and 2010 (12).

[CTWeatherFreak]

Yikes. 942 mb on GFS at 1wk out.

[GaWx]

The 12Z GEFS has a significant increase in the number of members with a tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean next week….interesting. Another TC or two this year would not be surprising with the still very warm W Caribbean and when looking back at the last 30 years or so.