Diggiebot Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 On 10/23/2024 at 11:33 AM, MANDA said: Thought these graphics were interesting & impressive in regards to Helene: I would think the Hurricane of 1938 would be up there too. It took trees down way north into northern New England. Do you have that graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Euro Weeklies back to very active for Nov 4-10 with activity quite possible subsequent week as well. Nov 4-10 has jumped back up to 3.8 x climo (8-8.5 ACE) vs yesterday’s 2.1 (4-4.5 ACE): It not only is back to very active but also the shaded areas are back to including S FL and now even C FL. This is the highest risk shown for that week by any Weeklies run for FL, Bahamas, and W 1/2 of Cuba: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelastsasquatch Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 Weather weenie here. Any updates on (what would be) Patty? Could it impact elections? (in Florida/Georgia) if people didn't vote early? At what point will there be more clarity beyond just possibility/speculation? TIA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 18z GFS seems to not form a closed early November storm? Am I interpreting correctly?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 23 minutes ago, Cholorob said: 18z GFS seems to not form a closed early November storm? Am I interpreting correctly? . The 18z has not run yet. Do you mean the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 The 18z has not run yet. Do you mean the 12z?No, I mean 18z 10/25. Not using EST on these right?https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 It's not unusual for a global operational run to miss resolving tropical cyclone genesis when that has yet to occur IRL, even during several days of repeated runs showing a TC. But the 12z GFS still has a TC making landfall in Haiti. But it is not good to focus on specifics like tracks and intensity with a chaotic pattern and big swings in motion. We don't even have an organized disturbance yet, much less a vortex, though we do have pressures beginning to fall that should lead to a surface trough developing. As such, convection is beginning to pop over the SW Caribbean. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 21 minutes ago, Cholorob said: No, I mean 18z 10/25. Not using EST on these right?https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ . That’s the hour 6 map of the “12Z run”. So, that’s why it says 18Z. The “18Z run” doesn’t start coming out til 5:30PM EDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: It's not unusual for a global operational run to miss resolving tropical cyclone genesis when that has yet to occur IRL, even during several days of repeated runs showing a TC. But the 12z GFS still has a TC making landfall in Haiti. But it is not good to focus on specifics like tracks and intensity with a chaotic pattern and big swings in motion. We don't even have an organized disturbance yet, much less a vortex, though we do have pressures beginning to fall that should lead to a surface trough developing. As such, convection is beginning to pop over the SW Caribbean. I see that, however I have slightly elevated concern about possible TC development in the next week. Hopefully, I am nothing more than an old man worrywort. Yeah, that's probably it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Berg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 7 of 30 (23%) of the 18Z GEFS members landfall in the CONUS within Nov 6-10 from something forming in 5-7 days, either the lemon mentioned above (5) or something near PR (2). *Edit: The 0Z had 5 while the 6Z ended up with 7, with most of these from the current lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Early look at 12Z GEFS suggests it will have about as many landfalling members on the Conus as recent runs. Update of 12Z GEFS Conus landfalls: 5 of 30 (17%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1850618329804730523 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 I had missed this earlier but the Canadian has picked up on it. GFS is still a earlier development by comparison, but the signal is there on more than one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 The Euro (12Z) still has no TC. However, the CMC ens is about as active as any prior run and the GEFS is still pretty active though not as active as some earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Whereas the 12Z Euro didn’t have a TC, the 12Z Euro ensemble is the most active yet by a good margin as regards landfalling member % on the CONUS. Out of 50 members, 9 (18%) hit FL within Nov 7-12 with even a 10th still in the GOM at 360 (a MH) aiming to hit FL ~Nov 13th. Out of these 9 that hit, 7 appear to be H strength with one a MH. Of the 9 that hit, 2 hit the Panhandle, 4 hit the Big Bend, and 3 hit SW FL (S of Tampa). There are also 2 that miss to the E but hit parts of the W Bahamas. In summary, this run is a bit ominous for W FL. By the way, I count a total of ~18 members (36%) with a TC on the run from whatever source. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 A late season TC-Hurr may still yet form in the sw Caribbean, but it's not going to my posted thinking of at least a week ago, occurring prior to Election Day. MY wrong interpretation and unless something changes in. hurry, my buy in to the GEFS mid range was probably wrong for initial TC development near Halloween, as others indicated herein. Patience I'm sure but whatever it is, seems like if any se USA impact, it would be later than Nov 5, NJ-PA: 00z/29 EPS/GEFS 5H pattern is quite different toward Nov 9. We need rain up here in NJ/e PA... for now, doesn't loo like any TC related rain before the 8th. A good portion of our autumn rain up here is TC related. Not a good situation for NJ/e PA. Will keep monitoring but my confidence has dimmed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 Crazy lack of certainty with this system. Looks like it's between either getting strung out and heading straight northeast through the Greater Antilles and out to sea, or it moves northwest through the Caribbean, into the GoM, and then cuts back across Florida. GFS has been showing the strung out northeast, GEFS seems to have a lot of members going into the GoM, Euro shows just a broad gyre, while many EPS members also show going into the GoM. Looks like Canadian and its ensembles also support the GoM track. Quite a significant difference in tracks with an already battered Florida in the path of one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 And now the global operational 0z GFS just drops the hurricane in the Caribbean completely lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 12Z GFS took a TS into the gulf, borderline small cane. It just continues NW and de-amps over the NW gulf at the end of the run. CMC otoh takes a pretty clear cane up through the Yucatan channel then hard turns NE towards the keys. ICON takes a major through the channel and is in the SC GoM at h180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 12Z GEFS: about as active as any run yet regarding CoNUS landfalls with 12 of 30 (40%). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Check out the euro It has no TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 17.4N 83.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.11.2024 156 17.4N 83.6W 1005 33 1200UTC 06.11.2024 168 18.3N 85.5W 1004 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 I have a bit of a random question, and I don't know if this is the right place to ask. The most recent GFS model got me thinking about this. Is it theoretically possible for a hurricane to travel down the center of the Gulf of California and impact Arizona/California? Is the Gulf big enough to support a hurricane? Clearly a path as such is incredibly unlikely, but still technically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 24 minutes ago, AStorms13 said: I have a bit of a random question, and I don't know if this is the right place to ask. The most recent GFS model got me thinking about this. Is it theoretically possible for a hurricane to travel down the center of the Gulf of California and impact Arizona/California? Is the Gulf big enough to support a hurricane? Clearly a path as such is incredibly unlikely, but still technically possible. It’s theoretically possible but the synoptic pattern to drive a TC NNW through the gulf without impacting land on either side is challenging to achieve. Odds are less than 1% I’d say. It’s more likely to get a recurving baroclinally enhanced storm hit LA, and even then it wouldn’t be a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 And just like that, 3 lemons on the 2 day NHC graph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 2PM TWO 10/31/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 1. 12Z Ensembles regarding Conus: active with highest % hitting as a TC on CDN (most members), GEFS at 50%, and lowest on Euro (~30%). These are mainly, though not entirely, coming from the W Caribbean. There are also members with hits on the US from TCs that lose TC status before hitting. 2. 12Z UKMET: TCG at hour 96 in W Car that moves WNW into Yucatan: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.9N 78.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.11.2024 96 13.9N 78.4W 1004 38 0000UTC 05.11.2024 108 14.5N 79.0W 1002 38 1200UTC 05.11.2024 120 15.3N 79.7W 1001 37 0000UTC 06.11.2024 132 15.9N 81.8W 999 34 1200UTC 06.11.2024 144 17.0N 83.9W 998 40 0000UTC 07.11.2024 156 17.8N 86.7W 996 41 1200UTC 07.11.2024 168 18.3N 89.1W 997 36 ———————— Edit: 0Z UKMET: further N with a WNW crossing of the N Yucatan followed by NW turn into Gulf NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.6N 78.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 05.11.2024 96 15.2N 78.7W 1003 31 1200UTC 05.11.2024 108 16.3N 80.3W 1002 30 0000UTC 06.11.2024 120 17.2N 81.8W 1001 31 1200UTC 06.11.2024 132 18.6N 83.9W 1000 34 0000UTC 07.11.2024 144 19.5N 86.3W 999 34 1200UTC 07.11.2024 156 21.4N 88.9W 999 34 0000UTC 08.11.2024 168 22.4N 90.9W 997 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 8PM TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. 3. North Atlantic: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 miles west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity. Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves generally eastward during the next few days. Additional information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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