AStorms13 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Whoa, latest GFS run is kinda crazy for the southern east coast. Really far out, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Per records, there hasn’t been a TS+ anywhere near the lower 48 on or even near Election Day. Hopefully that won’t change in 2024. Ensembles are actually suggesting a slight chance for that to occur. Can you imagine the media coverage that day for the two things converging should this occur? Also, the conspiracy theorists would probably be going crazy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 CPC’s update picks up on the enhanced odds for development down in the western Caribbean. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 May have to look out for Patty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Per records, there hasn’t been a TS+ anywhere near the lower 48 on or even near Election Day. Hopefully that won’t change in 2024. Ensembles are actually suggesting a slight chance for that to occur. Can you imagine the media coverage that day for the two things converging should this occur? Also, the conspiracy theorists would probably be going crazy. No conspiracy. Climate change, warm ocean waters, Nina. Just need to keep a Weather eye out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 26 minutes ago, Jebman said: May have to look out for Patty. Maybe but fwiw good news is that new Euro Weeklies is much less active, especially in vicinity of W Cuba/S FL/Bahamas/Bermuda, than prior runs for 11/4-10: New run: 2 x climo (ACE of ~4.5)(Peak run was 5 days ago’s 4 x climo (ACE of ~9) Prior run: 2.9 x climo (ACE of ~6.5) it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 5 hours ago, Jebman said: No conspiracy. Climate change, warm ocean waters, Nina. Just need to keep a Weather eye out. Westerlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Thought these graphics were interesting & impressive in regards to Helene: 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 51 minutes ago, MANDA said: Thought these graphics were interesting & impressive in regards to Helene: I thought so too. That Hazel graphic really shows how intense and unique of a storm it was. You rarely get a strong hurricane like that that late in the season barreling up the whole east coast with winds that extreme that far inland and north. Though it transitioning also helped the wind speeds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 12z GFS op has a major in the Eastern Gulf at 300+. Obviously too far out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 12z Gfs would be cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 https://bsky.app/profile/weathertiger.bsky.social/post/3l7773za4l22dLocations and full tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes active on November 5, this year's Election Day, between 1900 and 2023.Historically, there is a named storm somewhere in the subtropical Atlantic, Gulf, or the western Caribbean a little less than 20% of the time on 11/5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 hour ago, TPAwx said: 12z GFS op has a major in the Eastern Gulf at 300+. Obviously too far out at this point. A few GEFS members go over west/central Cuba then cut across SE Florida and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Need to keep monitoring the daily changes occurring in modeling aloft across North America, the first week of November. IF (when) a TC-Hurricane gets going near Cuba--- pretty sure it will adjust the upper atmosphere far away... There's already a fair amount of spaghetti showing sharp troughing in the USA first week of Nov. Where it ends up and the amplitude? Then, whether any tropical moisture or TC gets swept up the eastern USA, or as climo above shows...east-northeast out to sea away from FL... too soon to know but am wary of GEPS/EPS not showing much. I'll need to see the GEFS continue its increasing likelihood of a TC GOM-Caribbean near or just after Halloween, and increasing number GEFS members sharpening the trough near 80-85W the first week Nov. Yesterdays CPC words were attached to the graphic posted yesterday by purduewx on this page. Those words are: Recently, the anomalous upper-level divergence (convergence) increased over the Maritime Continent (Americas and Africa). Despite destructive interference between the MJO and the emerging weak La Nina during the next week, the GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement and consistent that a moderate to strong MJO propagates eastward to the western Hemisphere. By early November, the MJO is predicted to shift east from the Americas to Africa and the Indian Ocean. Based on the strength of the MJO during the next three weeks, MJO composites for both favored tropical cyclone (TC) development and anomalous precipitation are a major prognostic tool in the weeks 2 and 3 outlook. A pair of tropical cyclones (Nadine and Oscar) formed over the Atlantic basin this past week. Nadine was a short-lived TC and Oscar rapidly became a hurricane as it tracked north of Hispaniola. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support a 40 to 60 percent chance of TC development across the Caribbean Sea from October 30 to November 5. Many of these ensemble members depict TC genesis occurring as early as October 29. Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another TC forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October. Model guidance is also depicting an elevated chance of a subtropical low pressure system or tropical cyclone forming at a higher latitude over the southwestern Atlantic. This would be consistent with climatology and thus a 20 to 40 percent chance is posted for this region during week-2. From November 6 to 12, a 20 to 40 percent chance of TC development is posed for the Caribbean Sea based on climatology and since the MJO is likely to maintain a favorable large-scale environment for a late season TC through at least mid-November. ---- CPC's 3PM updated D8-14is attached... this fits the concerns expressed by this group in these past two pages. So, until the westerlies prevail down to GA inside of D7 on the GEFS and it no longer argues for TC development, I keep the door open for anything happening eastern third of the USA the first week of November. Just need to be patient and if this risk shifts out to sea as climo suggests, then I'll admit it. We are in an abnormal pattern. I'll wait this out a few more days. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 21 hours ago, Windspeed said: https://bsky.app/profile/weathertiger.bsky.social/post/3l7773za4l22d Thanks for posting this. I need to clarify my earlier post about the lack of a TS+ hitting or near the lower 48 on Election Day. I meant to say during Presidential election years as I was only checking those. My bad for leaving that off. Weather Tiger is showing the Yankee H hitting S FL overnight 11/4-5 and then just offshore in the Gulf at 7AM on Election Day in 1935. I didn’t include that because it wasn’t a Pres election year. But it definitely counts for Election Day in general. I see they have a 2nd one (a TS) in S FL on Nov 5th, but I’ve yet to figure out the year. So, I don’t know when Election Day was that year. **Edit on 10/24: I just figured out that the 2nd one in S FL on Nov 5th is TS Mitch in 1998. However, Election Day that year was Nov 3rd, when Mitch was in the Bay of Capeche: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Let’s go bruh. Fantastic news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 There was a strong tropical storm on the east coast in early Nov 1861, not an election year but shows potential for one to disrupt an election I suppose. I expect final count to be 16/11/4 or 5, don't think the season is done yet. Nov-Dec 1887 had five storms. Average for Nov is barely 1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 00z/24 GEPS-EPS lackluster and I'm not sure if that will hold back NHC issuance of a TWO today somewhere in the Caribbean shores between Panama and Nicaragua but a 0% 2 day, 20 or 30% D7 seems warranted to me, especially considering repeated GFS op suggestion of a big storm down there. Once a TWO issues (only my presumption based on repeated GEFS suggestion), I'm out of this Trop Forum and will briefly revisit near Nov 7 or sooner, after all is said and done, whatever the outcome. All I ask is there any evidence that EPS is a better predictor D7 than the GEFS? Posters on here have all the options very well covered the past two pages, and always all the storm invests/tracking/potentials. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 GFS has been really stubborn with the end of month potential. Many consecutive runs with at least a storm forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Sandy was a week before election day but I know it still complicated things here in the NY Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 3 hours ago, cardinalland said: Sandy was a week before election day but I know it still complicated things here in the NY Metro Will Optimus Oscar replace SUPERSTORM SANDY as the only storm I have to listen endless about from NYC transplants? Real Qs here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 2 hours ago, BRSno said: GFS has been really stubborn with the end of month potential. Many consecutive runs with at least a storm forming I think it’s legit. It’s showing up strongly on ensembles. Timing is something that’s going to need to be sorted out. 3 hours ago, wdrag said: 00z/24 GEPS-EPS lackluster and I'm not sure if that will hold back NHC issuance of a TWO today somewhere in the Caribbean shores between Panama and Nicaragua but a 0% 2 day, 20 or 30% D7 seems warranted to me, especially considering repeated GFS op suggestion of a big storm down there. Once a TWO issues (only my presumption based on repeated GEFS suggestion), I'm out of this Trop Forum and will briefly revisit near Nov 7 or sooner, after all is said and done, whatever the outcome. All I ask is there any evidence that EPS is a better predictor D7 than the GEFS? Posters on here have all the options very well covered the past two pages, and always all the storm invests/tracking/potentials. I think we’re still on the edge of the window to increase TWO odds, so I wouldn’t expect anything yet. Though I agree that there are meaningful odds in that region. The signal looks real to me. I don’t have the time to pull an analysis, but I think the GEFS has done an very good job overall identifying areas of tropical genesis, and has excelled against the EPS the last several years. While it has a well documented western Caribbean genesis bias, it has done exceptionally well this season imo once we can identify what the genesis source is—i.e. a well established CAG or tropical wave. One area of diminished performance has been timing. It has generally been a little fast in forecasting genesis in CAG situations. It looks like early November is a period to watch, especially if the upper level steering pattern looks anything close to what’s being depicted currently. I guess going into winter mode will have to wait a few weeks for me , but I expected that a few months ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 21 hours ago, Windspeed said: https://bsky.app/profile/weathertiger.bsky.social/post/3l7773za4l22d I just figured out that the 2nd one in S FL on Nov 5th is TS Mitch in 1998. However, Election Day that year was Nov 3rd, when Mitch was in the Bay of Capeche: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 With the GFS showing a carribean cyclone train starting early November, might actually back into hyperactivity. Wild season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 GFS fantasy land tracks right over our favorite FL town again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: .I guess going into winter mode will have to wait a few weeks for me , but I expected that a few months ago. Don’t worry. I’m sure the Gods will make it up to you by starting spring a few weeks early. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 24 Share Posted October 24 9 minutes ago, jburns said: Don’t worry. I’m sure the Gods will make it up to you by starting spring a few weeks early. I’m not even sure I’ll have a winter. I used up my allotted wx miracle for one storm last season. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted October 25 Share Posted October 25 damn, I thought I'd be safe going to Punta Cana on November 10th, but the GFS says I'm gonna start forming fantasy storms in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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