wdrag Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Barring stats presented by others here that differ, imo, the GFS is best at TC genesis. That said, the 00z/22 GEFS has a closed ridge aloft centered off the Carolinas at Halloween. You see the # of members of this 21 member ensemble with something (TC) going s of Cuba. My guess is that modeling will continue to accentuate the ridge aloft off the Carolinas with time beyond D10, and steer the potential TC west, before eventual N-NE. Beyond D10, GEFS and EPS differ (especially Nov 4-6) with the GEFS progressive westerly flow while the EPS lags and has "potential" for the trough lagging back around 85W. Climate is full of extremes... Milton-Helene combo have us in a serious short term drought here in the NY-Philly metro. Could it reverse to a very wet pattern here along the e Coast in Nov...aided by a TC? I don't anticipate a Sandy, but I do think a TC forms, and only my opinion, it seems to have FL potential and northward along the e coast, dependent on trough aloft timing. Modeling of mid-upper level troughs-ridges tends to mush out with the variant members... and often sharpens drastically from a D10-15 spaghetti outlook. Need a TC first, then let the modeling steering adjust and guide us. Worthy of monitoring. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Whoa, latest GFS run is kinda crazy for the southern east coast. Really far out, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Per records, there hasn’t been a TS+ anywhere near the lower 48 on or even near Election Day. Hopefully that won’t change in 2024. Ensembles are actually suggesting a slight chance for that to occur. Can you imagine the media coverage that day for the two things converging should this occur? Also, the conspiracy theorists would probably be going crazy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago CPC’s update picks up on the enhanced odds for development down in the western Caribbean. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago May have to look out for Patty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Per records, there hasn’t been a TS+ anywhere near the lower 48 on or even near Election Day. Hopefully that won’t change in 2024. Ensembles are actually suggesting a slight chance for that to occur. Can you imagine the media coverage that day for the two things converging should this occur? Also, the conspiracy theorists would probably be going crazy. No conspiracy. Climate change, warm ocean waters, Nina. Just need to keep a Weather eye out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Jebman said: May have to look out for Patty. Maybe but fwiw good news is that new Euro Weeklies is much less active, especially in vicinity of W Cuba/S FL/Bahamas/Bermuda, than prior runs for 11/4-10: New run: 2 x climo (ACE of ~4.5)(Peak run was 5 days ago’s 4 x climo (ACE of ~9) Prior run: 2.9 x climo (ACE of ~6.5) it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 hours ago, Jebman said: No conspiracy. Climate change, warm ocean waters, Nina. Just need to keep a Weather eye out. Westerlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now