2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[purduewx80]

Most of the MJO plots are putting the Atlantic back in play around the first of November. Not sure about CONUS threats, but the Caribbean sure could get busy for a couple of weeks. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS is popping a brief TD or low-end TS in the nw Caribbean Saturday morning before it moves into Belize.  The NHC has raised it to 40%.

[GaWx]

 Euro Weeklies today upped 11/4-11/10 to 3.7 of climo:

 

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Probably a little scrap ACE left in the open ocean but I think CONUS impacts may be closed for the year 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is popping a brief TD or low-end TS in the nw Caribbean Saturday morning before it moves into Belize.  The NHC has raised it to 40%.

That would be a genesis win for the model, considering how everyone wrote off the signal it’s had for quite a while now. 

[WxWatcher007]

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better 
organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association 
with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better 
defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some additional development over the next day 
or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form 
before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday. 
Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should 
monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or 
warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America 
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent 
showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level 
circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements 
indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. 
However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a 
tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast 
of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. 
Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and 
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and 
the Yucatan Peninsula. 

The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the 
circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 
300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is 
expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central 
America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland 
before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the 
simple and corrected consensus models. 

Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with 
light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. 
However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves 
inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the 
official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end 
tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before 
dissipating on Sunday. 

Key Messages: 

1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is 
expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and 
high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico 
during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are 
possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it 
treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and 
northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the 
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the 
Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.5N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  19/0600Z 17.5N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 17.3N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  20/0600Z 17.2N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

[Jebman]

Kinda getting the feeling, that nature has kind of gotten the severe hurricanes out of her system, for now lol. The gulf of mexico has got to have some time to recharge. 

Enough hurricanes. We got to start thinking about winter and snows and staying up for model runs. Hey, its almost November!

 

OH, and one more thing! WxWatcher007, YOU ARE THE REAPER! We want you back, come Nov 27!

We need you to Rule the Eastern Realms! You are desperately needed! This is going to be one of THOSE winters! I am forecasting only average snow tallies at best! We need you so bad! You need to don that Reapers Garment NOW! Get into practice! We will all be expecting your Inaugural Speech for 2024-25 on November 27th evening!

Be there, or be square!

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon measured about 1003 mb in Nadine's center as it nears landfall in Belize.

[GaWx]

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies have a 90 percentile ACEwise for Nov 4-10 with a whopping 4 x climo or ~9, which is norm for 1st week in Oct. The last time that week had 9+ was 2008 (Paloma).

 The MJO fcasts are supportive with mod left side at start. Ensembles have it active in W Car then.

[NorthHillsWx]

Belize is lucky Nadine didn’t have more time over water. That storm was going to go beast mode with 24 hours more over water 

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Belize is lucky Nadine didn’t have more time over water. That storm was going to go beast mode with 24 hours more over water 

Very good job by the GFS imo. 

[Windspeed]

We have now reached 10 hurricanes on the season. Only 17 other seasons since official records began in 1851 reached double-digits. Granted, pre-satellite era years are underdone, and there are most likely TCs that unknowingly reached hurricane intensity. But based on the reanalysis of historical weather logs and shipping reports, this is what we get.

10: 1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1998, 2012, 2017, 2024
11: 1887, 1933, 1950, 1995
12: 1969, 2010
14: 2020
15: 2005

[Spidyr2k]

40 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

We have now reached 10 hurricanes on the season. Only 17 other seasons since official records began in 1851 reached double-digits. Granted, pre-satellite era years are underdone, and there are most likely TCs that unknowingly reached hurricane intensity. But based on the reanalysis of historical weather logs and shipping reports, this is what we get.

10: 1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1998, 2012, 2017, 2024
11: 1887, 1933, 1950, 1995
12: 1969, 2010
14: 2020
15: 2005

Six out of seventeen years begin with '20'.  That seems fine.

[gymengineer]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies have a 90 percentile ACEwise for Nov 4-10 with a whopping 4 x climo or ~9, which is norm for 1st week in Oct. The last time that week had 9+ was 2008 (Paloma).

 The MJO fcasts are supportive with mod left side at start. Ensembles have it active in W Car then.

I think what that signal indicates, given how the last few weeks have gone, is that even if models don’t coalesce around a specific threat, the conditions are still there for a storm or two (or more) to get going in early November. 
 

Models with Milton, Nadine, and Oscar all ID’ed their potential at range, but flickered back and forth, or even to nonexistence with Oscar, until the surface low actually got established. 

[wdrag]

minor comment impression:  looking back at least a week... I'm giving this (Nadine-Oscar) predictability to the GEFS as a win... other primary global models were imo lackluster.

 

Looking ahead... Cuba-Bahamas-possibly an east coastal Fl threat around Oct 30-31.  This time multiple model attempts.(00/20 EPS, GEPS, GEFS). Doubt this will disappear within big eastern USA ridge.  

[NorthHillsWx]

With Nadine/Oscar both finding land, the amazing amount of landfalls this season continues 

[Shenanagins1091]

Another season in the books - hoping for some more stable weather soon to get in on the YFT bite

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, Shenanagins1091 said:

Another season in the books - hoping for some more stable weather soon to get in on the YFT bite

MJO heading into 8-1-2 so we may not be done yet...

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

MJO heading into 8-1-2 so we may not be done yet...

Hoping the CONUS, especially S FL, won’t have any more to worry about. Regardless, Oscar is far from done. Bermuda could be impacted. Also, the chances of an upcoming TCG in the W Caribbean are high.

[purduewx80]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hoping the CONUS, especially S FL, won’t have any more to worry about. Regardless, Oscar is far from done. Bermuda could be impacted. Also, the chances of an upcoming TCG in the W Caribbean are high.

12Z GEFS has a lot more members coming up into south FL late next week. Gotta watch NAO trends later in November, as any Greenland block could send something into the East Coast, too. 

[wdrag]

51 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z GEFS has a lot more members coming up into south FL late next week. Gotta watch NAO trends later in November, as any Greenland block could send something into the East Coast, too. 

Agreed above... and I think the 12z/21 GEPS trends past 4 cycles is growing. EPS marginal.  but imo, it's worth monitoring.  My guess is NHC could begin a TWO mention around 10/23-24.  

Also fwiw... the TWO per the NHC naming of TC's. the TWO has been on the slow side (Milton through Oscar) ramping up probability concern once they have it in the system.  

Am aware of AMWX participant thinking the GEFS has a high bias on showing potential TC's (could that be mostly early season?).

SST anoms still +normal except both sides of the southern FL peninsula . The light wind field mo∂eled at upper levels by the ensembles suggests to me the potential for a TC near or south of Cuba is favorable.  Realizing that there are far more considerations, I leave it that.  I tend to look at ballpark opportunity.  Expert criteria may say no-go but for now I continue to monitor the GEFS in particular, until the GEFS loses it, if it does. 

[Windspeed]

I agree with the above posts about the upcoming midrange signal. That pattern suggested by both ensemble suites, including as much agreement as you can expect given the lead time between all the operationals, is highly suggestive of WCARIB development next week. A lingering surface trough over the SW Caribbean interacts with a disturbance currently positoned in the ITCZ that slides across Venezuela. This times with an amplified ST jet over the MX->GOM->SE CONUS that builds a large ULAC over the disturbance. That's a very volatile atmospheric setup for instability; and given that surface pressures between Jamaica and Panama should be low for an extended period, I'd say that modeling is going to go on a rampage the remainder of the week with TCG next week.

[wdrag]

57 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I agree with the above posts about the upcoming midrange signal. That pattern suggested by both ensemble suites, including as much agreement as you can expect given the lead time between all the operationals, is highly suggestive of WCARIB development next week. A lingering surface trough over the SW Caribbean interacts with a disturbance currently positoned in the ITCZ that slides across Venezuela. This times with an amplified ST jet over the MX->GOM->SE CONUS that builds a large ULAC over the disturbance. That's a very volatile atmospheric setup for instability; and given that surface pressures between Jamaica and Panama should be low for an extended period, I'd say that modeling is going to go on a rampage the remainder of the week with TCG next week.

I think the above is very well analyzed currently-future.  It's all modeling but the modeling is improving it's corridors of interest beyond D5 (imo).

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

I agree with the above posts about the upcoming midrange signal. That pattern suggested by both ensemble suites, including as much agreement as you can expect given the lead time between all the operationals, is highly suggestive of WCARIB development next week. A lingering surface trough over the SW Caribbean interacts with a disturbance currently positoned in the ITCZ that slides across Venezuela. This times with an amplified ST jet over the MX->GOM->SE CONUS that builds a large ULAC over the disturbance. That's a very volatile atmospheric setup for instability; and given that surface pressures between Jamaica and Panama should be low for an extended period, I'd say that modeling is going to go on a rampage the remainder of the week with TCG next week.

Unfortunately for S FL, the latest Euro Weeklies has shading over it, which is a change from prior runs. Also, the Bahamas and Bermuda are shaded. This doesn’t mean likely for all of these areas but it does mean whatever forms in the W Car might bear watching for them as the mean ensemble track has shifted NW:

 

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

12Z GEFS has a lot more members coming up into south FL late next week. Gotta watch NAO trends later in November, as any Greenland block could send something into the East Coast, too. 

And we all know what happened at the end of October 2012, when Sandy slammed into NJ on 10/29/12.  Not saying something like that is going to happen, but a pattern like that makes it more likely a tropical system could impact the east coast.  

[Kevin Reilly]

57 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And we all know what happened at the end of October 2012, when Sandy slammed into NJ on 10/29/12.  Not saying something like that is going to happen, but a pattern like that makes it more likely a tropical system could impact the east coast.  

In regard to the NAO forecast there is no support for a Sandy like storm to make a left-hand turn towards the east coast perhaps way further east but not towards the coast. We have moved from a negative phase to a positive phase of the NAO.  

 

NAO Forecast:

[Windspeed]

In regard to the NAO forecast there is no support for a Sandy like storm to make a left-hand turn towards the east coast perhaps way further east but not towards the coast. We have moved from a negative phase to a positive phase of the NAO.  
 
NAO Forecast:

Yes, the pattern doesn't really support a phasing scenario that would pull a TC into the eastern seaboard. However, a Caribbean system might still impact Florida as it turns into the westerlies. Certainly, Central America, the Antilles and Bahamas could all be at risk depending on the initial and outcome steering layer. We have at least a week to iron out the details and watch how modeling resolves the interacting features. But overall, I'd rule out any CONUS threat beyond the Florida Peninsula.

[purduewx80]

16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

In regard to the NAO forecast there is no support for a Sandy like storm to make a left-hand turn towards the east coast perhaps way further east but not towards the coast. We have moved from a negative phase to a positive phase of the NAO.  

 

NAO Forecast:

Sure looks to be trending down from where it is now, with a handful of sharply negative members by early November. CFS and last night’s weeklies take it there, as well. Not saying whatever develops in the Caribbean makes it into the US but it can definitely not be ruled out. 

[wdrag]

Barring stats presented by others here that differ,  imo, the GFS is best at TC genesis.  

That said, the 00z/22 GEFS has a closed ridge aloft centered off the Carolinas at Halloween. You see the # of members of this 21 member ensemble with something (TC) going s of Cuba.  My guess is that modeling will continue to accentuate the ridge aloft off the Carolinas with time beyond D10,  and steer the potential TC west, before eventual N-NE.  Beyond D10, GEFS and EPS differ (especially Nov 4-6) with the GEFS progressive westerly flow while the EPS lags and has "potential" for the trough lagging back around 85W. 

Climate is full of extremes... Milton-Helene combo have us in a serious short term drought here in the NY-Philly metro.  Could it reverse to a very wet pattern here along the e Coast in Nov...aided by a TC?  

I don't anticipate a Sandy, but I do think a TC forms, and only my opinion, it seems to have FL potential and northward along the e coast, dependent on trough aloft timing.  

Modeling of mid-upper level troughs-ridges tends to mush out with the variant members... and often sharpens drastically from a D10-15 spaghetti outlook.  Need a TC first, then let the modeling steering adjust and guide us. Worthy of monitoring.