Normandy Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 I mean we are in mid October and the GFS is still showing signs of life at 384. I’m hopeful but Jesus man this season taking 6 weeks off during prime time and backloading it is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 2 minutes ago, Normandy said: I mean we are in mid October and the GFS is still showing signs of life at 384. I’m hopeful but Jesus man this season taking 6 weeks off during prime time and backloading it is unreal Despite things tending to calm down starting in late Oct, I fully expect more storms due to La Niña and the very warm Atlantic. I just hope that they’re not nearly as impactful especially in the CONUS as the westerlies come further south per climo. We’ll see. Impacts on the US generally go down late in Oct despite exceptions like Wilma and Sandy. GFS does tend to have a lot of phantoms in the long range in the W Caribbean/Gulf, regardless. So, we’ll have to see about those as I do expect more activity there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 The Copernicus blend is a big yikes in the Caribbean during November. Even if we don’t get a string of majors down there, I think the record SSTs and OHC will mean disastrous flooding for some of the vulnerable populations down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 1 hour ago, Normandy said: I mean we are in mid October and the GFS is still showing signs of life at 384. I’m hopeful but Jesus man this season taking 6 weeks off during prime time and backloading it is unreal The good thing is, the Caribbean specifically in the basin between Jamaica and Central America has year round water temps above 26 historically. And it’s doesn’t always produce storms after November, due to other factors mainly shear. The WPAC does however… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 18z GFS goes berserk with cyclogenesis in only 96 hours and a cat 4 in 174 hours. It sticks with burying it into Belize. This would be disastrous for that area with the rain and mudslides in addition to the hurricane winds. Kinda strange how GFS has a tropical storm in 4 days and no other models really have anything. It also has a weak storm forming from 94L in the caribbean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 GFS has TCG resolving in 72-78 hours east of Nicaragua. That's a significant bump up for the time frame here. We should start seeing a disturbance and convective activity in a few days if this is going to go down so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 GFS ensembles try to resolve a system. Not much there on the Euro ensembles, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 12 Author Share Posted October 12 A lot of GFS ensembles have a storm developing in the Caribbean in 5-7 days. It's a real nice SE Canada 500mb High pressure occurring at this time, which favors Gulf of Mexico/Florida hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Really need to keep a serious eye on these storms, because this year they really seem to be exploding into majors in literally hours. Climate change is getting REAL. It lends significant meaning to 'never turn your back on that ocean'. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 NHC really doesn't trust the GFS. GFS shows a tropical storm forming in 3-4 days and we can't even get a 20% confidence that a storm will form in 7 days from the NHC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Maybe the fortunes on 94L are changing? This could be one that comes across the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Euro now has 94L becoming a hurricane in the caribbean... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe the fortunes on 94L are changing? This could be one that comes across the Atlantic. For sure. The pattern change taking place pretty much has mid-level ridging rebuilding to its north the entire way across. Should be easy to track and seems more likely to develop closer to the Caribbean where better moisture is pooled south of our stalling fronts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: For sure. The pattern change taking place pretty much has mid-level ridging rebuilding to its north the entire way across. Should be easy to track and seems more likely to develop closer to the Caribbean where better moisture is pooled south of our stalling fronts. Thanks. It does look like the eastern MDR is starting to close up shop on quick TCG now that climo shifts to the western part of the basin. That probably is one to watch a little closer now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 You can sort of see the environment it’s eventually getting into on SHIPS guidance: increasing mid-level moisture with westward extent counterbalanced by shear until the end of its forecast, plus increasing OHC/SSTs. May not take off until it tracks west of the surface high centered off the East Coast unless the islands interfere. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 Hum, the GFS has been forecasting a tropical disturbance to form in a week or so and with strong high pressure over the US it drives anything that would form to go west into Mexico. For the first time in many runs the high pressure over the US is not as strong with weakening in the Midwest. This allows the disturbance to gain enough latitude that it gets into the GOM. Just something to watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 Climate change plus Nina and warmer Atl SST's are making for an incredibly exciting and challenging time for tropical meteorologists. This is one unpredictable strange hurricane season! 1 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 94L on 12Z UKMET: keeps it near steady state through entire run, which ends with it moving slowly (<10 mph) WNW well N of the Greater Antilles (I’d have to see H5 maps to determine if that would likely recurve safely from the US):MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTICGLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.10.2024TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 33.8WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 13.10.2024 0 17.9N 33.8W 1013 250000UTC 14.10.2024 12 17.6N 36.6W 1013 241200UTC 14.10.2024 24 17.2N 38.6W 1013 230000UTC 15.10.2024 36 17.0N 40.3W 1012 231200UTC 15.10.2024 48 17.0N 42.4W 1011 250000UTC 16.10.2024 60 17.0N 45.2W 1011 261200UTC 16.10.2024 72 17.5N 48.3W 1011 290000UTC 17.10.2024 84 18.5N 51.8W 1011 321200UTC 17.10.2024 96 20.6N 55.5W 1011 330000UTC 18.10.2024 108 22.0N 58.1W 1011 301200UTC 18.10.2024 120 23.2N 60.3W 1013 290000UTC 19.10.2024 132 23.9N 62.3W 1013 251200UTC 19.10.2024 144 24.0N 64.5W 1012 300000UTC 20.10.2024 156 24.2N 66.0W 1011 311200UTC 20.10.2024 168 24.7N 67.5W 1009 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 On 10/11/2024 at 2:26 PM, GaWx said: Despite things tending to calm down starting in late Oct, I fully expect more storms due to La Niña and the very warm Atlantic. I just hope that they’re not nearly as impactful especially in the CONUS as the westerlies come further south per climo. We’ll see. Impacts on the US generally go down late in Oct despite exceptions like Wilma and Sandy. GFS does tend to have a lot of phantoms in the long range in the W Caribbean/Gulf, regardless. So, we’ll have to see about those as I do expect more activity there. Are we officially in an La Niña now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Are we officially in an La Niña now? 1. Not officially because that (on ONI basis) is done retrospectively since several months of SST anomalies have to be -0.5C or colder in Nino 3.4 and it has just gotten there in recent weeks. 2. I actually prefer to look at it on a Relative ONI basis (RONI) because that much better takes into account recent warming of global tropical waters. Based on that, it entered La Niña territory nearly 3 months ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 *Reposted to correct thread:* The busiest week on today’s Euro Weeklies for ACE is unusually enough for this late, week 4: Nov 4-10. It projects as per the image below 2.7 times the 2004-23 mean ACE, which is 2. So, the prog is for 5-6 ACE for then. The prog for each of the two weeks prior is for ~5 each. So, 15-16 is progged for the 3 week period that’s often pretty quiet, 10/21-11/10. But with Nina and very warm Caribbean/Gulf, it would make sense. The most active areas per the run for 10/21-11/10 go from SW Gulf through W Car through far SE FL, and Bahamas/Bermuda. 11/4-10: 2.7 x mean 2004-23 ACE 11/4-10: most active areas are shaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 *Reposted to correct thread* The ACE calculations are in for the period 9/30-10/13 based on best track data: -2024 had a whopping 63.6, 3rd highest since 1851! This compares to 1991-2020 avg of only 12.3! Since 1851: -1893 had ~67 -2016 had ~65.5 -2024 had 63.6 -1878 was just below at ~59-60 Breaking it down into weeks back to 1951: 9/30-10/6: 1991-2020 avg 7.7 ~47.5 in 2016 32 in 2024 ~30 in 2015 So, 2024 had 2nd highest 9/30-10/6 ACE back to 1951 only behind 2016 and just ahead of 2015. 10/7-13: 1991-2020 avg 4.6 31.6 in 2024 24 in 2018 ~18 in 2016 ~11.5 in 2017 11 in 1995 10 in 2010, 2001 8 in 2020, 2014 So, 2024 by a large margin had the highest 10/7-13 ACE since 1851! Kudos to Euro Weeklies predicting weeks in advance significantly greater than avg ACE 9/30-10/13 (delay of peak by 4 weeks)! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 NHC finally has a lemon on the area in the western Caribbean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: NHC finally has a lemon on the area in the western Caribbean Also, the models have a surface low forming well offshore the E US. This year NHC hasn’t been naming these types. Not a big deal most likely but could it become T or ST? 12Z UK has it as one or other: (I think 0Z also had it) NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 33.4N 72.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.10.2024 60 33.4N 72.4W 1011 33 1200UTC 17.10.2024 72 35.7N 69.9W 1006 42 0000UTC 18.10.2024 84 37.8N 66.5W 1001 43 1200UTC 18.10.2024 96 38.6N 63.3W 1001 46 0000UTC 19.10.2024 108 36.4N 59.5W 1008 38 1200UTC 19.10.2024 120 33.5N 56.5W 1014 32 0000UTC 20.10.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdMC Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 All due respect how are they calculating ACE values in the pre-satellite era? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 8 minutes ago, AdMC said: All due respect how are they calculating ACE values in the pre-satellite era? It’s not an exact science, but they use observations of storm size and strength. Mostly ship reports. I’m sure some seasons are under reported as a mid ocean hurricane could have missed ships. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 1 hour ago, AdMC said: All due respect how are they calculating ACE values in the pre-satellite era? educated guesses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 12Z UKMET text still has TCG/STCG for the initially baroclinic low off the E coast. Not likely to bother any land regardless: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 35.0N 70.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.10.2024 48 36.1N 70.0W 1003 45 0000UTC 18.10.2024 60 38.1N 68.7W 994 48 1200UTC 18.10.2024 72 37.8N 66.4W 1000 46 0000UTC 19.10.2024 84 35.8N 63.3W 1008 38 1200UTC 19.10.2024 96 33.3N 61.9W 1013 31 0000UTC 20.10.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s not an exact science, but they use observations of storm size and strength. Mostly ship reports. I’m sure some seasons are under reported as a mid ocean hurricane could have missed ships. That very high first half of Oct record high ACE estimate in 1893 is based partially on my own adjustment of the 63.5 total ACE generated by storm #9 (4th highest on record) by looking at the best track data available (yes, the 63.5 ACE is their educated guess based mainly on ships but also on land data from Bahamas/SE US) for the latest on record E MDR storm that made it to the CONUS. This caused major damage in SC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy urricane Nine 1893 Category 3 hurricane 63.5 20 days I also had to add ACE for another MH, storm #10 that hit SE LA as a 948 mb MH Oct 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 On 10/12/2024 at 12:59 AM, Jebman said: Really need to keep a serious eye on these storms, because this year they really seem to be exploding into majors in literally hours. Climate change is getting REAL. It lends significant meaning to 'never turn your back on that ocean'. Hurricane and typhoon numbers are decreasing, study finds, even as they become more destructive | CNN A very interesting read here 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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