2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, George BM said:

All four of the Atlantic major hurricanes so far this year have peaked at at least a 120kt Category 4.

Not too shabby.

#QualityOverQuantity

[WxWatcher007]

@GaWx now have a lemon on the FL east coast. That one has a good chance to get a name if it can stay tropical. 

Everything spinning is becoming a TC in the basin right now. 

[purduewx80]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@GaWx now have a lemon on the FL east coast. That one has a good chance to get a name if it can stay tropical. 

Everything spinning is becoming a TC in the basin right now. 

It’s getting going east of WPB now. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It’s getting going east of WPB now. 

Models continue to develop a modest low. Do you think it’ll have enough to become fully tropical?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Models continue to develop a modest low. Do you think it’ll have enough to become fully tropical?

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 28.0N  76.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 09.10.2024   36  27.9N  76.2W     1003            31
    1200UTC 09.10.2024   48  29.3N  71.7W     1004            29
    0000UTC 10.10.2024   60  30.8N  67.0W     1005            29
    1200UTC 10.10.2024   72              CEASED TRACKING

 

[Torch Tiger]

? 

[GaWx]

Total ACE in the Atlantic basin today was 9.3!

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Total ACE in the Atlantic basin today was 9.3!

Wow!

[Windspeed]

[GaWx]

 The LLC E of FL looks pretty robust today but I wonder if the NHC will downplay it as they’ve tended to do this season for weaker systems. They have only a 20% chance for TCG per the latest TWO. Opinions?

@WxWatcher007@purduewx80

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The LLC E of FL looks pretty robust today but I wonder if the NHC will downplay it as they’ve tended to do this season for weaker systems. They have only an 20% chance for TCG per the latest TWO. Opinions?

@WxWatcher007@purduewx80

NHC says it doesn’t have much time to acquire (sub)tropical characteristics. Interestingly, these baroclinic lows have struggled to become tropical this year. 

[purduewx80]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The LLC E of FL looks pretty robust today but I wonder if the NHC will downplay it as they’ve tended to do this season for weaker systems. They have only a 20% chance for TCG per the latest TWO. Opinions?

@WxWatcher007@purduewx80

It still looks pretty frontal on vis but it’s hard to tell for sure. Unfortunately ASCAT hasn’t been updating since early this morning. It was still elongated around 8-9AM. 

[WxWatcher007]

Leslie is back! A hurricane again at 5pm.

[cptcatz]

On 10/1/2024 at 11:04 AM, cptcatz said:

Looking likely that there will be two concurrent major hurricanes (Kirk and the next one right on its heels) in the central Atlantic on the first week of October. Pretty logical to have 5x ACE given that situation this time of year. Let's see what happens with this Gulf system though...

Love going back to old posts. Kirk and Leslie had some nice attention but got kicked to the curb once Milton came around. 

[gallopinggertie]

Seasonal ACE in the Atlantic is now higher than in the W Pacific! 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NHC says it doesn’t have much time to acquire (sub)tropical characteristics. Interestingly, these baroclinic lows have struggled to become tropical this year. 

 

11 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

It still looks pretty frontal on vis but it’s hard to tell for sure. Unfortunately ASCAT hasn’t been updating since early this morning. It was still elongated around 8-9AM. 

Check the latest TWO out…they raised the chance from 30% to 50%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. 

1. Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical 
low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas 
continue to become better organized.  Although environmental 
conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional 
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form 
today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to 
east-northeastward at around 15 mph.  Upper-level winds are forecast 
to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for 
further development.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

I’ll tell you what—the stuff that has developed has really popped. Leslie is thriving in advance of the coming shear. Thanks @Windspeed for pointing it out. Clearing out an eye in the central Atlantic after being written off. 

[BRSno]

Hopefully Florida can avoid any tropical systems in areas already highly impacted. 

[Jebman]

Any info on the possible development of Nadine?

[Windspeed]

Any info on the possible development of Nadine?

Too far into the midrange to even bother right now. Let's give it 3 to 4 more days and see if something is still trying to resolve on modeling in the NW Caribbean.

[BRSno]

La la land but still something to keep an eye out for

[WxWatcher007]

My peak season forecast is running out of time (Aug 20–Oct 20) and in the coming 10 days I think I have 2-3 more chances (two long shots) to get names on the board.

1. Western Caribbean, where the models led by the GFS have a signal for another system to potentially come out of a CAG or other vorticity seedling. This is the best chance for something else to pop imo before the lid goes back on the basin—probably until November. 

2. Eastern Atlantic, where the NHC has a lemon but I don’t think TCG odds are good at all.

3. Eastern seaboard, where there’s a modest signal for some type of non-tropical low associated with a trough that could become subtropical. This has not worked at all this season, so I doubt it happens here. 

[Windspeed]

ACE will be over 140 points heading into the second weekend of October. It's quite obvious now that if the Atlantic Basin had produced only a few hurricanes during the stretch of prolonged and below normal intraseasonal quiet, we would finish at hyperactive values. Granted, a hyperactive season is still possible given a few strong Caribbean hurricanes through November, and we have seen activity into November in recent years. However, it is more likely we will not hit the lofty preseason targets. We are, however, going to finish above normal.

The ACE metric and total number of named storms do not necessarily weigh on how bad the season has been. The CONUS has experienced a nightmarish tropical cyclone season with five landfalling hurricanes. Six is the record (2020, 1985, and 1886). However, 2024 landfalls have been deadly and expensive. After Beryl devestated the Grenadines and impacted Jamaica and the Yucatán, it went on to produce notable damage in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan region. Francine caused significant flood damage in the western New Orleans metro. Helene, not withstanding significant surge impacts from Tampa to Steinhatchee, was among the worst inland wind and flooding TCs in American history and will no doubt prove to be the costliest TC on record because of it. Helene will also end up among the deadliest for the US due to the catastrophic events that unfolded in the southern Appalachians. Though Milton can be considered a very lucky impact, barely missing Tampa Bay to the south and avoiding a catastrophic landfall, it was still a powerful system that flooded coastal shoreline communities and has wreaked havoc inland across the peninsula with damaging winds in the Tampa, Pete and Sarasota metros; furthermore, inflicting significant damage to inland trees and power grid infrastructure, plus significant inland fresh water flooding. Estimates for the 2024 season's price tag may push a quarter of a trillion dollars and go down as the costliest season in US history.

Edit: You know it's been a bad season when you overlook a hurricane landfall. I didn't even include Debby's impacts, which weren't insignificant, causing fresh water flooding from Sarasota County, Fl., to the central and northern Appalachians and areas in the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Ohio Valley. Debby also spawned an EF3 tornado in the Carolinas. Of course, the tornado impacts from Milton are still being assessed, but it's looking like it may have spawned numerous SIG-tors. I suppose I could go on and on, but it's clear this season has been an awful one for millions of US citizens and folks in the Caribbean. Hopefully, the worst is over, but there are signs in the midrange that suggest we may not yet be finished.

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

ACE will be over 140 points heading into the second weekend of October. It's quite obvious now that if the Atlantic Basin had produced only a few hurricanes during the stretch of prolonged and below normal intraseasonal quiet, we would we would finish at hyperactive values. Granted, a hyperactive season is still possible given a few strong Carribean hurricanes through November, and we have seen activity into November in recent years. However, it is more likely we will not hit the lofty preseason targets. We are, however, going to finish above normal.

The ACE metric and total number of named storms do not necessarily weigh on how bad the season has been. The CONUS has experienced a nightmarish tropical cyclone season with five landfalling hurricanes. Six is the record (2020, 1985, and 1886). However, 2024 landfalls have been deadly and expensive. After Beryl devestated the Grenadines and impacted Jamaica and the Yucatán, it went on to produce notable damage in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan region. Francine caused significant flood damage in the western New Orleans metro. Helene, not withstanding significant surge impacts from Tampa to Steinhatchee, was among the worst inland wind and flooding TCs in American history and will no doubt prove to be the costliest TC on record because of it. Helene will also end up among the deadliest for the US due to the catastrophic events that unfolded in the southern Appalachians. Though Milton can be considered a very lucky impact, barely missing Tampa Bay to the south and avoiding a catastrophic landfall, it was still a powerful system that flooded coastal shoreline communities and has wreaked havoc inland across the peninsula with damaging winds in the Tampa, Pete and Sarasota metros; furthermore, inflicting significant damage to inland trees and power grid infrastructure, plus significant inland fresh water flooding. Estimates for the 2024 season's price tag may push a quarter of a trillion dollars and go down as the costliest season in US history.

Nice summary. You missed the crazy tornado outbreak yesterday. Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie counties had one of their impactful weather days in history with the nonstop tornado warnings for legitimate large and long tracking Tornado Alley style tornadoes. 

Also, you think Helene will be the costliest on record? Surpassing Katrina?

[Windspeed]

Nice summary. You missed the crazy tornado outbreak yesterday. Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie counties had one of their impactful weather days in history with the nonstop tornado warnings for legitimate large and long tracking Tornado Alley style tornadoes. 
Also, you think Helene will be the costliest on record? Surpassing Katrina?

Yeah, I added it. We've had hurricanes that have produced more numbers of tornadoes (both Ivan and even this year's Beryl comes to mind), and I'm not even sure that Helene will be in the top 5 for that matter. But a lot of Helene's tornadoes occurred as waterspouts out over open ocean and therefore were not as tracked/accounted for. Certainly, the number of SIG-tors by Helene is the most critical to yesterday's event.

RE: Cost. Yes, unfortunately, I do think Helene will surpass Katrina as the most costly natural disaster in American history, even accounting for inflation. Though, perhaps that's difficult to determine in comparison to the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake. At least in modern times and estimates, it does look like it will surpass Katrina.

[TheDreamTraveler]

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

ACE will be over 140 points heading into the second weekend of October. It's quite obvious now that if the Atlantic Basin had produced only a few hurricanes during the stretch of prolonged and below normal intraseasonal quiet, we would we would finish at hyperactive values. Granted, a hyperactive season is still possible given a few strong Caribbean hurricanes through November, and we have seen activity into November in recent years. However, it is more likely we will not hit the lofty preseason targets. We are, however, going to finish above normal.

The ACE metric and total number of named storms do not necessarily weigh on how bad the season has been. The CONUS has experienced a nightmarish tropical cyclone season with five landfalling hurricanes. Six is the record (2020, 1985, and 1886). However, 2024 landfalls have been deadly and expensive. After Beryl devestated the Grenadines and impacted Jamaica and the Yucatán, it went on to produce notable damage in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan region. Francine caused significant flood damage in the western New Orleans metro. Helene, not withstanding significant surge impacts from Tampa to Steinhatchee, was among the worst inland wind and flooding TCs in American history and will no doubt prove to be the costliest TC on record because of it. Helene will also end up among the deadliest for the US due to the catastrophic events that unfolded in the southern Appalachians. Though Milton can be considered a very lucky impact, barely missing Tampa Bay to the south and avoiding a catastrophic landfall, it was still a powerful system that flooded coastal shoreline communities and has wreaked havoc inland across the peninsula with damaging winds in the Tampa, Pete and Sarasota metros; furthermore, inflicting significant damage to inland trees and power grid infrastructure, plus significant inland fresh water flooding. Estimates for the 2024 season's price tag may push a quarter of a trillion dollars and go down as the costliest season in US history.

Edit: You know it's been a bad season when you overlook a hurricane landfall. I didn't even include Debby's impacts, which weren't insignificant, causing fresh water flooding from Sarasota County, Fl., to the central and northern Appalachians and areas in the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Ohio Valley. Debby also spawned an EF3 tornado in the Carolinas. Of course, the tornado impacts from Milton are still being assessed, but it's looking like it may have spawned numerous SIG-tors. I suppose I could go on and on, but it's clear this season has been an awful one for millions of US citizens and folks in the Caribbean. Hopefully, the worst is over, but there are signs in the midrange that suggest we may not yet be finished.

This season has been one of the weirdest ones I can think of. So many things have seemed out of sync. From the formation of Beryl in late June becoming the earliest cat 5 on record and the strongest storm that far east in the Atlantic that early in the season beating many records. And it went through the graveyard in early July as a category 5. Then things became very quiet. 8/20 through 9/23 which is the climatological peak of the season was the quietest stretch of ACE accumulation since 1994 which is to this day one of the quietest seasons recorded. Then everything that happened with the African monsoon ITCZ during August/September breaking a record for being so far north which was cutting off tropical waves so they could not develop. Now we're in October and suddenly the Atlantic thinks it's early September with three hurricanes spinning at once a few days ago with 2 at the same time both breaking records at the same time being the most powerful hurricanes that far east in October. And I guess we can include how bizarre Milton's track was. Either way it's been a very strange season for sure.

[cptcatz]

Looks like there are two different areas that models and ensembles are picking up on. First is the area of the western caribbean that the GFS and ensembles love to develop. Operational has shown it getting buried into central America but the ensembles show a bigger signal of bringing into the Gulf of mexico. Other models aren't as bullish but most others at least show CAG-like vorticity.

The other area which seems to be getting more model support recently is the current 94L in the eastern Atlantic. Looks like it won't develop any time soon but all models seem to show it continuing as a healthy wave across the MDR and then possibly having it develop around the caribbean. Euro seems most bullish but this morning's GEFS shows some interesting scenarios as well. 

Hopefully we'll get a better picture of these in the next few days. Looks like this late peak season might continue into late October. 

[wdrag]

37 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like there are two different areas that models and ensembles are picking up on. First is the area of the western caribbean that the GFS and ensembles love to develop. Operational has shown it getting buried into central America but the ensembles show a bigger signal of bringing into the Gulf of mexico. Other models aren't as bullish but most others at least show CAG-like vorticity.

The other area which seems to be getting more model support recently is the current 94L in the eastern Atlantic. Looks like it won't develop any time soon but all models seem to show it continuing as a healthy wave across the MDR and then possibly having it develop around the caribbean. Euro seems most bullish but this morning's GEFS shows some interesting scenarios as well. 

Hopefully we'll get a better picture of these in the next few days. Looks like this late peak season might continue into late October. 

Will be interesting to see what happens late next weekend (Sunday 20th): GEFS has at least several members continue northward moving into GOM around the western ATLC ridge (noted your pgh 1 GEFS bias), whereas GEPS and EPS are comparatively benign, though EPS seems to be increasing slightly the past day of modeling.  Plenty of time for GOM to recover positive SST anomaly where it cooled via Milton. Uncertainty for sure... 

[Normandy]

The fact that we have already experienced the costliest hurricane season on record and are facing potential threats until mid November is very sobering.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The fact that we have already experienced the costliest hurricane season on record and are facing potential threats until mid November is very sobering.

Hopefully no more hits this season! Whereas nobody knows what will happen, climo is our ally now as usually things calm down overall a lot past mid Oct. So, fingers crossed, especially since average ACE has increased for late season.