2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Boston Bulldog]

Code Red, might be time to fire up a thread on this.

Nasty looking PRE setup. Regardless of how strong this system gets, this is a really concerning situation for an already flooded FL Gulf Coast. Good to see the NHC starting to push out some messaging for coastal residents to prepare.

 

 

 

[Windspeed]

Not many October historical tracks like the eps there.. Closest I found was Cat 1 Unnamed Oct 24, 1859 to Oct 29, 1859.  Cat 2 Unnamed Oct 08, 1888 to Oct 12, 1888 looks similar too.
Assuming my search is correct there hasn't been a hurricane that originated in the Gulf and struck within 150mi of Sarasota since that storm in 1888.  Not implying any forecast with that tidbit, just find it interesting.

There's actually not much of a precedence in either the GOM or Caribbean, for that matter. Only a few TCs that come to mind that had an E to ENE track into landfall from the GOM or Caribbean that became strong. I recall Category 4 Lenny in November of 1999. Obviously, Wilma hooked ENE across the southern Florida Peninsula that originated out of the NW Caribbean. Opal developed out of the BOC and became a hurricane on Oct. 2nd, taking a NE track into the Panhandle. But overall, these types of tracks into the Peninsula are very rare. You would think it would happen more often, but the most likely reason I can think of why it doesn't is due to how tropical jet interaction works with these systems. Most often, if a TC or invest gains too much latitude, they get sheared off versus enhanced. Obviously, we do see a lot more frequent E to ENE tracks in the central ATL that become strong hurricanes.

[bigtenfan]

For SE FL the GFS shows about 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days. 

We get that in an afternoon T storm sometimes.

[dbullsfan]

For SE FL the GFS shows about 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days. 
We get that in an afternoon T storm sometimes.

That is a lot better than the 20+ inches Reed Timmer was fear mongering all over X the last few days


.

[cptcatz]

56 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

For SE FL the GFS shows about 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days. 

We get that in an afternoon T storm sometimes.

I got 3.2 inches of rain this morning in 2 hours here in Boca Raton.  Strong thunderstorm just sat over the Broward/Palm Beach line for two hours.

[Jebman]

One thing about FL they get a good deal of rain, grass mowing businesses do well. So do landscapers.

[WxWatcher007]

I think this qualifies as the lid coming off. Four hurricanes and two majors in less than 10 days. All of our peak activity has come since September 8.

 

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think this qualifies as the lid coming off. Four hurricanes and two majors in less than 10 days. All of our peak activity has come since September 8.

 

 This lid coming off/4 week delayed peak was so well predicted by the Euro Weeklies a month in advance. These Weeklies (not the pre season Euro seasonals that predicted record ACE) have been absolutely stellar all season. These same Weeklies are predicting the 2nd half of Oct will drop sharply back to normal during a period when climo is dropping significantly meaning a peak of ~9/20-10/16. So, hopefully after this Gulf threat the CONUS at least will be safe though one more W Caribbean storm late this month wouldn’t be a shock. Also, there could always be an unpredictable/rogue very late threatening storm.

[Floydbuster]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think this qualifies as the lid coming off. Four hurricanes and two majors in less than 10 days. All of our peak activity has come since September 8.

 

Agree. Octobers are underrated when it comes to climatology. 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Agree. Octobers are underrated when it comes to climatology. 

The last half of Sep through Oct has had a significant increase in mean ACE during the last 20 years while Aug-early Sep hasn’t seen this increase.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This lid coming off/4 week delayed peak was so well predicted by the Euro Weeklies a month in advance. These Weeklies (not the pre season Euro seasonals that predicted record ACE) have been absolutely stellar all season. These same Weeklies are predicting the 2nd half of Oct will drop sharply back to normal during a period when climo is dropping significantly meaning a peak of ~9/20-10/16. So, hopefully after this Gulf threat the CONUS at least will be safe though one more W Caribbean storm late this month wouldn’t be a shock. Also, there could always be an unpredictable/rogue very late threatening storm.

Stellar is right. It looks like we probably get 2 (Gulf/MDR) or maybe 3 (another western Caribbean CAG type system) more NS before things shut down again mid-month, and then I think we may get a last burst in November when climo is squarely focused in the western Caribbean and the MJO cycles around again. 

[TPAwx]

GFS coming in hot. 

[BlueDXer75]

Just now, TPAwx said:

GFS coming in hot. 

Was about to post this. Down to 956 at 18z on Tuesday 

[BlueDXer75]

951 near Tampa 12z on Wednesday 

[TPAwx]

That run would be bad news  Wild. 

[tiger_deF]

Crazy season to track. From a cat 5 early July major, to a total shutdown of the basin in peak season, to multiple powerful major hurricanes causing the greatest damage since Katrina during late season. 2024 will be talked about for many decades in the future, not just due to the incredible amount of hurricane landfalls on the gulf coast, but due to the truly anomalous pattern of tropical cyclonegenesis and intensification. Is this another artifact of AGW or just a season with many conflicting signals which have constructively and destructively interfered with each other, or both? Only time will tell.

[Normandy]

Scary hours right now in the ATL basin

[George BM]

Atlantic ACE to date has caught back up to average passing 100pts.

[wncsnow]

3 hours ago, George BM said:

Atlantic ACE to date has caught back up to average passing 100pts.

We are going to be above average ACE for sure. Could get to 20 named storms after all too. 

[tiger_deF]

00z GFS sends an even stronger major hurricane into the same area in 12 days, and sends it up the eastern seaboard.

 

Almost certainly not verifying but would be absolutely catastrophic if it did.

[tiger_deF]

Leslie has been feeling shy, so of course once model intensities have plummeted and all eyes are off her she has decided to put on a show

[GaWx]

 The week 9/30-10/6 in 2024 is going to end up with ACE that is 2nd highest for that week going back to 1951! It was essentially twice the mean for the climo most active week of a month earlier!The only higher ACE for that week was in 2016, thanks almost entirely  to Matthew, which was a MH (cat 3-5) during all 7 days.

[tiger_deF]

GFS has been showing development in the western Caribbean for three runs in a row, now in only 6-7 days. Will be the next place to watch. Hoping that nothing develops or that it is more of a gulf threat, since the west coast of Florida will be uniquely vulnerable

[Normandy]

Unfortunately the pattern is ripe for TCG in the Caribbean and movement north.  Trying times ahead for Florida.  The insurance industry there might not survive this season

[WxWatcher007]

The lid is off and as long as it is we should pay closer attention to any seedling in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Lol pretty wild to see in mid October while the snow gets laid down in Canada 

[GaWx]

 Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N  78.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 08.10.2024   48  27.6N  78.8W     1003            23
    0000UTC 09.10.2024   60  28.6N  75.5W     1002            28
    1200UTC 09.10.2024   72  30.0N  71.9W     1003            30
    0000UTC 10.10.2024   84  32.3N  66.5W     1004            30
    1200UTC 10.10.2024   96  35.3N  60.5W     1003            33
    0000UTC 11.10.2024  108  38.9N  54.6W      999            37
    1200UTC 11.10.2024  120              CEASED TRACKING

 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N  78.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 08.10.2024   48  27.6N  78.8W     1003            23
    0000UTC 09.10.2024   60  28.6N  75.5W     1002            28
    1200UTC 09.10.2024   72  30.0N  71.9W     1003            30
    0000UTC 10.10.2024   84  32.3N  66.5W     1004            30
    1200UTC 10.10.2024   96  35.3N  60.5W     1003            33
    0000UTC 11.10.2024  108  38.9N  54.6W      999            37
    1200UTC 11.10.2024  120              CEASED TRACKING

 

I’ve noticed it, but I’m a little skeptical something tropical gets going before conditions become more unfavorable. That said, given where we are with this peak—anything spinning has a chance right now. 

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve noticed it, but I’m a little skeptical something tropical gets going before conditions become more unfavorable. That said, given where we are with this peak—anything spinning has a chance right now. 

 Thanks. I’m curious about it for several reasons:

1. It could be yet another NS adding a little bit more ACE during this upcoming week, a week that’s projected to be the most active 10/7-13 since at least 1951 coming on the heels of the 2nd most active 9/30-10/6 ACEwise.

2. Because the entire atmosphere is interconnected and because this wouldn’t be too far away from Milton, it’s conceivable that it could have more than a trivial influence on Milton in some way(s).