purduewx80 Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 TD12 is gonna be a big ACE maker. The one behind 12 is farther south, which could allow it to track closer to the Caribbean islands. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 5 hours ago, Seminole said: Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. So sorry to hear this - sending thoughts and prayers your way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 18 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: TD12 is gonna be a big ACE maker. The one behind 12 is farther south, which could allow it to track closer to the Caribbean islands. We’ll see. What does ACE maker mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 5 hours ago, Seminole said: Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. Please keep your phone charged and on ring. Verizon is setting up a temporary cell tower in Asheville today. There is a chance he may be able to get a call to you. Just wanted to ensure you know about it. There are no words otherwise. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 2 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said: What does ACE maker mean? Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It's a measure of energy for hurricanes. In this context it adds to overall index for the year (officials keep track of all energy produced by tropical cyclones each season) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2003/August/background_information.html#:~:text=Measuring overall activity%3A The Accumulated,Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 37 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: TD12 is gonna be a big ACE maker. The one behind 12 is farther south, which could allow it to track closer to the Caribbean islands. We’ll see. Over a week as a major Hurricane in the Atlantic. Has potential for highest ACE storm of the year. Beryl will be tough to beat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 9 hours ago, Seminole said: Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. I can't even imagine what you're going through! Hoping for the best for your son!! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 11 hours ago, Seminole said: Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. I am extremely sorry to hear this! I truly hope that he is OK and just can’t reach out due to the lack of communication issues. Thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. Please keep us updated! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 11 hours ago, Seminole said: Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. Sending my prayers and hoping for a positive update soon 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 Keeping my eye on the wave behind soon-to-be Kirk. It would be unprecedented to have a storm form in the East MDR and make it to the islands in October, but the ICON and EC-AI have been showing that as a possible scenario. The future storm is kept locked under a potent ridge that builds just slightly ahead of the disturbance as Kirk moves North. Hard not to buy the early recurve solution but this has been a season of odd behavior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Seminole Posted September 30 Popular Post Share Posted September 30 23 hours ago, Seminole said: Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. 79 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 3 minutes ago, Seminole said: UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. Fantastic News! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 30 minutes ago, Seminole said: UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. Phew Praise God! I am so glad to hear he's safe. Mercy what a storm...continued prayers for those still missing and their families. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 38 minutes ago, Seminole said: UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. Made my week. I’m so happy to hear this. Prayers for everyone waiting to hear from their loved ones. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 1 hour ago, Seminole said: He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. Find a container or bucket. Surely there is standing water somewhere and use it to flush the toilet. Dirty water for sure but I’ll bet it smells better than what is in there now. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 2 hours ago, Seminole said: UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. We need a "love" emoji - so happy to hear this! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. So Happy to hear this man, his journey through is just beginning but at least he is around to have it. Great news. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 All these bad hurricanes are all my fault. I jinxed everything when I foolishly declared the hurricane season was gonna be mild with a few small hurricanes. 1 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 55 minutes ago, Jebman said: All these bad hurricanes are all my fault. I jinxed everything when I foolishly declared the hurricane season was gonna be mild with a few small hurricanes. Find something else to spend your free time on, please! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 12 minutes ago, JACKASS said: Find something else to spend your free time on, please! I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Just heard from my cousin that she and her family in Asheville are ok (we had all obviously been worried) - took them until now to get to a town that had some power and a working cell tower. Crazy situation, as folks here know. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date! Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date! Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched: It really does look like a delayed peak, and maybe one that’s higher end with CV season heating up? Although weaker, the genesis signal in the Gulf still looks pretty robust. Definitely worth watching. I’m still way off my peak season forecast but some of each category will be added to the board soon. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (6) Hurricanes: 10 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (1) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 1 Author Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date! Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched: It probably has a lot to do with Kirk.. although the projection is 8+ days. It's interesting that it's that strong, being based on '04-23 norms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 20 hours ago, Seminole said: UPDATE: Good news! My son contacted my this morning and said he is safe. He had to use someone else's phone that had service. Communication is spotty at best in that area. He has a weeks worth of food and water and knows to ration it. He said the most annoying thing is not being able to flush. He thanked me for raising him a Floridian because he was well prepped for the storm. Thank you everyone here for the kind words, thoughts and prayers. This is wonderful news. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Sorry if already posted!https://x.com/wxtca/status/1841103250105516208?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 42 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Sorry if already posted!https://x.com/wxtca/status/1841103250105516208?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA . Just reposting so folks can see. Paging @CoastalWx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 10 hours ago, GaWx said: Holy Moses, check out the most recent Euro Weeklies mean prog for ACE for 10/7-13: way off the charts (5 times the 2004-23 mean for that week)! This is ~30, which is nearly double the mean for the peak week 4 weeks earlier and is by far the highest prog for any run this season for any week to date! Fortunately, the bulk of this very high ACE looks to be well out into the open Atlantic though not all of it as that potential Gulf low will need to watched: Looking likely that there will be two concurrent major hurricanes (Kirk and the next one right on its heels) in the central Atlantic on the first week of October. Pretty logical to have 5x ACE given that situation this time of year. Let's see what happens with this Gulf system though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Will Helen be retired? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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