2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yep, just did a little case study.  Helene mad landfall the night of 9/26 at a pressure of 938 mb.  Let's see what the Euro models showed at landfall:

9/21 12z: 991 mb

9/22 00z: 989 mb

9/22 12z: 981 mb

9/23 00z: 982 mb

9/23 12z: 983 mb

9/24 00z: 984 mb

9/24 12z: 978 mb

9/25 00z: 959 mb

Euro really didn't catch on to this being a strong hurricane until the day before it made landfall.  The fact that the super bearish Euro model is showing a 998 mb storm in the Gulf 9 days out right now should definitely tell you to keep your eye on this one.  Especially with GFS showing the same system at 958 mb.

gfs has more credibility then the euro with the way it performed with helene..

[Amped]

Gfs still has a wierd little storm lost and drifting about in the central gulf next week.

[NorthHillsWx]

This is the only and last time I’ll mention this but from what I’ve seen I’m not sure the really high end hurricane winds occurred onshore. Surge was predictably bad but I’ve seen dozens and dozens of chaser videos from around Perry and they’re out driving around in it. You do not drive around in cat 3+ winds because… you can’t. I understand Perry wasn’t on the coast and wouldn’t have experienced the worst winds the storm had to offer, but most chasers have compared it to cat 2. Also I haven’t seen any visuals of cat 4 wind damage. Everything I’ve seen is surge. Maybe the SE eyewall that came ashore in the marsh had the real winds, just kinda surprised that northern eyewall wasn’t more potent. Obviously doesn’t matter. This is going to go down as one of the most damaging and destructive storms in history due to its inland impacts, just an observation I’ve made since I’ve had time to look at dozens of chaser videos. Maybe I’m way off and someone has some high end wind footage or damage pics, I just haven’t seen yet. Usually it’s easy to find after a storm like this with that many chasers 

[Chambana]

Grandma and grandpa lost their house in western NC yesterday, family getaway  home to be passed down to us grandkids and great grandkid, I’m numb. Thankfully, they are fine and at a shelter. Hurricane Helene will forever be embedded in our head. 

[zippity]

6 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Grandma and grandpa lost their house in western NC yesterday, family getaway  home to be passed down to us grandkids and great grandkid, I’m numb. Thankfully, they are fine and at a shelter. Hurricane Helene will forever be embedded in our head. 

I'm so sorry.

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is the only and last time I’ll mention this but from what I’ve seen I’m not sure the really high end hurricane winds occurred onshore. Surge was predictably bad but I’ve seen dozens and dozens of chaser videos from around Perry and they’re out driving around in it. You do not drive around in cat 3+ winds because… you can’t. I understand Perry wasn’t on the coast and wouldn’t have experienced the worst winds the storm had to offer, but most chasers have compared it to cat 2. Also I haven’t seen any visuals of cat 4 wind damage. Everything I’ve seen is surge. Maybe the SE eyewall that came ashore in the marsh had the real winds, just kinda surprised that northern eyewall wasn’t more potent. Obviously doesn’t matter. This is going to go down as one of the most damaging and destructive storms in history due to its inland impacts, just an observation I’ve made since I’ve had time to look at dozens of chaser videos. Maybe I’m way off and someone has some high end wind footage or damage pics, I just haven’t seen yet. Usually it’s easy to find after a storm like this with that many chasers 

I’m guessing if there were higher echelon winds, it happened to my SE in the zone between Perry and Salem where there’s nothing. We were more northern eyewall than that exceptional east side. Do you know if any chasers measured wind in that zone? 

I will also say I saw someone driving in Laura’s NE eyewall in pitch darkness. People are crazy lol. 

[Chambana]

32 minutes ago, zippity said:

I'm so sorry.

Thank you. Their lives are irreplaceable and they are with us, that’s all that matters. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A good amount of GFS ensembles have a Gulf storm making landfall in about a week. 

[WxWatcher007]

Maybe it’s too fast again, but the Gulf signal looks real. Could be a hurricane in the Gulf and open Atlantic next week. I don’t think the ceiling is nearly as high as it was for Helene but it’s obviously very early. 

Beyond that, I wonder if we will keep the activity going with tropical waves getting west to a more favorable environment. 

[wthrmn654]

This maybe a Gulf hurricane season of record breaking proportion of this keeps up..

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m guessing if there were higher echelon winds, it happened to my SE in the zone between Perry and Salem where there’s nothing. We were more northern eyewall than that exceptional east side. Do you know if any chasers measured wind in that zone? 

I will also say I saw someone driving in Laura’s NE eyewall in pitch darkness. People are crazy lol. 

Honestly it felt like Perry was the chaser convergence zone considering track and surge threat closer to the coast. I’m guessing that velocity maxima you highlighted was the peak wind impact zone but with a cat 4 and so many cameras running in what looked to be a ferocious northern eyewall you’d think that something high end would’ve been caught but to my knowledge it wasn’t. Absolutely not downplaying the storm 

[kvegas-wx]

There are likely more than 100,000 people across the mountain regions that are going to require rescue.  Seeing another storm potential less than a week out is beyond disturbing.  We're looking at a trainwreck on a dumpster fire should this occur, and simply put, people will die.  We either need more time to get these folks airlifted out or we need to get supplies in asap ahead of a potential next storm.  I cannot fathom how bad this will become with another 2,3,4 inches of rain, or more.

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Honestly it felt like Perry was the chaser convergence zone considering track and surge threat closer to the coast. I’m guessing that velocity maxima you highlighted was the peak wind impact zone but with a cat 4 and so many cameras running in what looked to be a ferocious northern eyewall you’d think that something high end would’ve been caught but to my knowledge it wasn’t. Absolutely not downplaying the storm 

Totally agree. More would’ve tested the coast and the area to my SE if the area had a better road network (and it was daylight).

And yeah, while it was a good eyewall I also thought given the velocities aloft the winds would’ve been much more intense. I know you’re not downplaying anything. That’s a legitimate concern. 
 

Edit: if I had to guess I would say we peaked between 100-120. I know the floor was verified with the airport report, and I think based on some of the damage I saw compared to Idalia the year before that there were isolated pockets closer to 120 gusts.

I think that’s in line with what others saw—high end 2/low end 3 gusts. With a similar radar velocity profile Laura was much worse. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

The GFS sure seems adamant on another hurricane landfalling in the same location as Helene multiple runs in a row. Would be absolutely awful if it ends up anywhere close to there. Then take into account Idalia hitting near that same area last year? Crazy.

[cptcatz]

12 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

This maybe a Gulf hurricane season of record breaking proportion of this keeps up..

Will need a few more to surpass 2020 or 2005. 

For US Gulf Coast landfalls, 2024 is at 4/4/1 (Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene)

2020 was 8/5/2

2005 was 6/5/4

[Seminole]

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

[blueheels2]

2 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Praying for you and your son Seminole.  Sorry to hear this.  

[wkd]

12 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

I can't even imagine what you are going through.  Please keep us updated.

[CoastalWx]

49 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

I have to think that cell service and what not is making it tough for anybody to try and each out. Keeping you and your son In my thoughts.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Can't even begin to comprehend the anxiety associated with this.  Please keep us posted.  Prayers you make contact soon.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Im sure it’s a communication issue. I went through this on 9/11 my mom was an American Airlines flight attended flying that morning and my dad was director of security at trinity church and a retired port authority Lt. who was almost killed at the trade center in the 93 bombing. I was at Towson university in Maryland as a college student and couldn’t get in touch with anyone in my family for hours. Full on panic attack. My mom’s plane was grounded at dfw and my dad was at a training class in midtown. Biggest relief of my life they were both ok. But I fully understand the anxiety. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. I hope he’s ok. 

[franklin NCwx]

12 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

There are likely more than 100,000 people across the mountain regions that are going to require rescue.  Seeing another storm potential less than a week out is beyond disturbing.  We're looking at a trainwreck on a dumpster fire should this occur, and simply put, people will die.  We either need more time to get these folks airlifted out or we need to get supplies in asap ahead of a potential next storm.  I cannot fathom how bad this will become with another 2,3,4 inches of rain, or more.

Oh, and Roy Cooper, get off your ass!!!

Communication is almost zero here still. No cell signal, most internet providers are down too

[hooralph]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Amazing amount of information here. https://www.reddit.com/r/asheville/ - you can really see the community rallying to help, but yes, it is dire. But it's clear there is very little communication, so you can reasonably hope he simply doesn't have a way to call.

[lilj4425]

I-26 is OPEN in both directions all the way up to I-240/I-40 in Asheville from the SC border if anybody still needs to get out. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Oh my goodness...you have my prayers as well.

[LakeNormanStormin]

3 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Praying for you and your family.

May everyone in that area come out okay and healthy.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

Praying that he will be okay 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

I am truly sorry to read this. I hope that he will be found ok.

[Windspeed]

Filled out a missing person report for my son in Ashville, NC. I last heard from him Friday at 1:30 PM. He said he was on the second floor of his home and cut off from everything because of flood water and debris. The situation there is beyond dire. 

I am so sorry. Heartbreaking. Please let us know if you hear anything.