2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[purduewx80]

6 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

What’s making them change all of a sudden

It appears that way when you focus on operational runs, but the ensembles have been showing two camps for days, with other solutions somewhere in between. The Euro ensembles have had the most support for a slower/more westward track. As usual it comes down to where and when a surface low consolidates. There is also a lot of work to do with the upper pattern near the Gulf Coast, which is highly variable due to energy potentially undercutting the Upper Midwest ridging next week. 
 

 

[purduewx80]

Certainly seeing the beginning stages here, but it will probably take several more days for something to consolidate. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It appears that way when you focus on operational runs, but the ensembles have been showing two camps for days, with other solutions somewhere in between. The Euro ensembles have had the most support for a slower/more westward track. As usual it comes down to where and when a surface low consolidates. There is also a lot of work to do with the upper pattern near the Gulf Coast, which is highly variable due to energy potentially undercutting the Upper Midwest ridging next week. 
 

 

 

Which one mogs (is better) for invests and disturbances that haven't formed yet? Operational or ensembles?

[WxWatcher007]

Ensembles. You treat the operational runs as extensions of ensembles at this stage imo—just one solution in the greater whole. 

It’s always a good idea before looking at the specific outcomes of these runs to take a step back and analyze the steering and development/intensification environment first. 

[tiger_deF]

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

For comparison, this is the 6Z GFS IR simulation as of 9AM EDT:

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

5 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For comparison, this is the 6Z GFS IR simulation as of 9AM EDT:

Bearish isn't the way to go tbh

[GaWx]

 12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.

[olafminesaw]

Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Until an LLC forms, I would say Climo is our best predictor of track. Aligns well with model consensus anyway 

Accuweather is looking at all Sept NW Caribbean storms to make this map. If a climo map is going to be used, I’d prefer to use the NHC image below, which is just climo for storms originating Sept 21-30, when NW Caribbean storms tend to recurve more sharply and threaten FL peninsula more often than is the case for Sept as a whole. Also, TX is hit even less than the 14% shown with only one landfall:

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Accuweather is looking at all Sept NW Caribbean storms to make this map. If a climo map is going to be used, I’d prefer to use the NHC image below, which is just climo for storms originating Sept 21-30, when NW Caribbean storms tend to recurve more sharply and threaten FL peninsula more often than is the case for Sept as a whole. Also, TX is hit even less than the 14% shown with only one landfall:

Thanks! This makes sense, early in the month the SE ridge is more likely to have influence. On models there seems to be a persistent trough off the east coast that is likely to pull the system more to the right.

[yoda]

12z CMC sure is taking its sweet time in the W GOM from Day 5 on... finally makes landfall in W LA day 9

[yoda]

12z GFS looks like it's going into W FL Panhandle at 162...  but instead turned NW into Biloxi at 192

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: TCG is a little earlier than the prior two runs as it is Wednesday evening in NW Caribbean; it moves slowly N and then NW into south-central Gulf Fri morning (end of run) with it then at 997 mb and strengthening:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.7N  86.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 26.09.2024  132  19.7N  86.5W     1002            32
    1200UTC 26.09.2024  144  21.1N  86.5W     1001            43
    0000UTC 27.09.2024  156  21.7N  88.2W     1000            35
    1200UTC 27.09.2024  168  23.4N  89.3W      997            40

 

[Ji]

I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol

[smokeybandit]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol

A rainy vacation is still better than a nice day at work.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

I need some help. Have a friend going to Cozumel area next week for vacation. Models looks pretty dicey in terms of rain next week especially after Wednesday. She wants to know if she should cancel but I don’t have enough expertise in that area to give her a solid answer but looking at models it dosent look great lol

too early to say whether it will have much of an impact or not

[CurlyHeadBarrett]