2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: W Gulf at 240

 

At 993mb... so probably just a TS

[A-L-E-K]

12z gfs or bust obv

[StantonParkHoya]

What’s 1200 miles amongst friends?

[SnowGoose69]

This feels like when all the models show a massive coastal storm at Day 7-8 and everyone assumes its 2024 the models cannot all be wrong on that, SOMETHING will happen and then we've seen often times it does not since 96-120 tends to be more of the magical range for that theory.  Add in that everything has struggled to develop this year and you'd still need a perfect scenario where it misses the Yucatan here for this to be something close to what guidance is indicating.  I think A storm happens but the odds something this perfect materializes is low

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

At 993mb... so probably just a TS

It's Euro

[Windspeed]

Low background pressures and intense convective bursting throughout central America this afternoon. The broad surface trough slowly organizing and should resemble a CAG over the next 24-36 hours. At that point, we'll have to start focusing on the NW Caribbean for any potential vorticity that may spin off NE of the monsoonal surface flow.

Heavy rains and flooding have already been an issue in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica today.

[dbullsfan]

So this is either gonna be a major hurricane hitting Tampa or a Tropical Storm hitting Texas or somewhere in between. Got it


.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

So this is either gonna be a major hurricane hitting Tampa or a Tropical Storm hitting Texas or somewhere in between. Got it


.

Or it could always be…nothing at all

[yoda]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Or it could always be…nothing at all

Or the 18z GFS goofy solution of a strong TS into W FL near Tampa and then right up Eastern Seaboard into New England 

[bdgwx]

12z UKMET has a pretty large and weak circulation moving due north just east of the Yucatan at hour 168. Extrapolation is a skill I still struggle with, but it looks like it is going to miss the trough and loiter a bit after 168 at least according to the UKMET anyway. There might even be a bit of a Fujiwhara interaction with a closed low on the Pacific side.

[Seminole]

[Amped]

A lot of difference in the handling of the pattern. Gfs and Ukmet digging a troff along the southern apps, other models, not so much. Cmc and ecmwf AI have a cutoff low over TX/OK

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS kind of looks convective feedbacky to me the way it jumps the low with the convection. Don’t know if that’s possible at that hour at that resolution but whatever.

its only 1000 miles different from 18z

CMC is in SW Arkansas at 222, GFS is off Cape of Maine.

[Windspeed]

Nice breakdown by Hazelton.

[BRSno]

5 hours ago, dbullsfan said:

So this is either gonna be a major hurricane hitting Tampa or a Tropical Storm hitting Texas or somewhere in between. Got it


.

Welcome to the weather world past 84h

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

It is back on the UKMET (12Z) with it becoming a TC at 168 (12Z on 9/26) in NW Caribbean 150 miles SW of W tip of Cuba:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.1N  86.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 26.09.2024  168  20.1N  86.0W     1004            27

0Z UKMET: TCG at 168 hours 75 miles SSW of W tip of Cuba (50 miles NE of 12Z’s hour 168 position, which is 12 hours earlier); already down to 1001 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.8N  85.3W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 27.09.2024  168  20.8N  85.3W     1001            32

 

 

[Normandy]

GFS is a goddam mess.  No consistency (and I’m not faulting the model it’s just output is chaotic which might be indicative of the pattern).

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: LLC forms eastern Bay of Campeche at 168 but moves and strengthens little through 240. At 240 it’s at 1002 mb with the entire Gulf having BN SLPs. Interestingly, a 2nd low (1004 mb) forms in the NE Gulf at the end.

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

GFS is a goddam mess.  No consistency (and I’m not faulting the model it’s just output is chaotic which might be indicative of the pattern).

 

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro: LLC forms eastern Bay of Campeche at 168 but moves and strengthens little through 240. At 240 it’s at 1002 mb with the entire Gulf having BN SLPs. Interestingly, a 2nd low (1004 mb) forms in the NE Gulf at the end.

Very fed up of no consistency 

And fed up of the season 

[GaWx]

0Z EPS has an increase in members in the W GOM although a good number go earlier into the NE Gulf. Two camps.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z EPS has an increase in members in the W GOM although a good number go earlier into the NE Gulf. Two camps.

What’s making them change all of a sudden

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

What’s making them change all of a sudden

Change from run to run out that far is nothing unusual. The dartboard is getting closer but it is still pretty far away.

[Wormy2005]

GFS showing something else at the end there? It's really shooting those Nerf bullets 

[BRSno]

CMC looked like it followed the GFS at 0z

[MJO812]

Euro was weaker but the gfs at 6z is more consolidated. 

[cptcatz]

Looking ahead, the long range GFS is finally showing big action with 4 hurricanes in the next 15 days. It does seem that this season will just be back loaded. 

[purduewx80]

6 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

What’s making them change all of a sudden

It appears that way when you focus on operational runs, but the ensembles have been showing two camps for days, with other solutions somewhere in between. The Euro ensembles have had the most support for a slower/more westward track. As usual it comes down to where and when a surface low consolidates. There is also a lot of work to do with the upper pattern near the Gulf Coast, which is highly variable due to energy potentially undercutting the Upper Midwest ridging next week. 
 

 

[purduewx80]

Certainly seeing the beginning stages here, but it will probably take several more days for something to consolidate. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It appears that way when you focus on operational runs, but the ensembles have been showing two camps for days, with other solutions somewhere in between. The Euro ensembles have had the most support for a slower/more westward track. As usual it comes down to where and when a surface low consolidates. There is also a lot of work to do with the upper pattern near the Gulf Coast, which is highly variable due to energy potentially undercutting the Upper Midwest ridging next week. 
 

 

 

Which one mogs (is better) for invests and disturbances that haven't formed yet? Operational or ensembles?

[WxWatcher007]

Ensembles. You treat the operational runs as extensions of ensembles at this stage imo—just one solution in the greater whole. 

It’s always a good idea before looking at the specific outcomes of these runs to take a step back and analyze the steering and development/intensification environment first.