2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cptcatz]

Wild GFS run with that MDR storm making it's way into the caribbean as well...

[WxWatcher007]

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: W Gulf at 240

 

[Seminole]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: W Gulf at 240

 

Over a 1000 miles apart from the GFS. 

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: W Gulf at 240

 

At 993mb... so probably just a TS

[A-L-E-K]

12z gfs or bust obv

[StantonParkHoya]

What’s 1200 miles amongst friends?

[SnowGoose69]

This feels like when all the models show a massive coastal storm at Day 7-8 and everyone assumes its 2024 the models cannot all be wrong on that, SOMETHING will happen and then we've seen often times it does not since 96-120 tends to be more of the magical range for that theory.  Add in that everything has struggled to develop this year and you'd still need a perfect scenario where it misses the Yucatan here for this to be something close to what guidance is indicating.  I think A storm happens but the odds something this perfect materializes is low

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

At 993mb... so probably just a TS

It's Euro

[Windspeed]

Low background pressures and intense convective bursting throughout central America this afternoon. The broad surface trough slowly organizing and should resemble a CAG over the next 24-36 hours. At that point, we'll have to start focusing on the NW Caribbean for any potential vorticity that may spin off NE of the monsoonal surface flow.

Heavy rains and flooding have already been an issue in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica today.

[dbullsfan]

So this is either gonna be a major hurricane hitting Tampa or a Tropical Storm hitting Texas or somewhere in between. Got it


.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

So this is either gonna be a major hurricane hitting Tampa or a Tropical Storm hitting Texas or somewhere in between. Got it


.

Or it could always be…nothing at all

[yoda]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Or it could always be…nothing at all

Or the 18z GFS goofy solution of a strong TS into W FL near Tampa and then right up Eastern Seaboard into New England 

[bdgwx]

12z UKMET has a pretty large and weak circulation moving due north just east of the Yucatan at hour 168. Extrapolation is a skill I still struggle with, but it looks like it is going to miss the trough and loiter a bit after 168 at least according to the UKMET anyway. There might even be a bit of a Fujiwhara interaction with a closed low on the Pacific side.

[Seminole]