2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TPAwx]

Probably an H storm so for sure a miss in TB.  We only take I storms seriously.

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Probably an H storm so for sure a miss in TB.  We only take I storms seriously.

 I storms have been extra damaging and/or deadly on the CONUS since Irene of 1999 and Isabel of 2003. Afterward, there was Ivan of 2004, Ike of 2008, Irene of 2011, Isaac of 2012, Irma of 2017, Isaias of 2020, Ida of 2021, Ian of 2022, and Idalia of 2023.

 Very damaging or deadly H storms for CONUS: Hazel of 1954, Hilda of 1964, Hugo of 1989, and Harvey of 2017.

 I storms overall have been the worst by a good margin of any letter for the CONUS the last 25 years.

[TPAwx]

Ok now GFS

[TPAwx]

What a beast of an op run

[traindog71]

Appears to take over the entire GoM


.

[BuffaloWeather]

dam

[traindog71]

dam

It just creeps and pushes walls of water northward


.

[GaWx]

 0Z GEFS says that the 0Z GFS is a major W outlier as just about all members recurve in the E Gulf. This is about the most threatening GEFS to W FL from Big Bend S of any run yet.

 0Z UKMET has no TC through 168.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

2 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Probably an H storm so for sure a miss in TB.  We only take I storms seriously.

Hugo, Hortense, Harvey and Humberto

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I storms have been extra damaging and/or deadly on the CONUS since Irene of 1999 and Isabel of 2003. Afterward, there was Ivan of 2004, Ike of 2008, Irene of 2011, Isaac of 2012, Irma of 2017, Isaias of 2020, Ida of 2021, Ian of 2022, and Idalia of 2023.

 Very damaging or deadly H storms for CONUS: Hazel of 1954, Hilda of 1964, Hugo of 1989, and Harvey of 2017.

 I storms overall have been the worst by a good margin of any letter for the CONUS the last 25 years.

Humberto mogged hard in 2019

[GaWx]

Looks like Euro will likely be W again with whatever forms on the run per early maps.

[LakeNormanStormin]

That beast will split the difference. My amateur eyes looking at New Orleans to Pensacola. CAT3

[NorthHillsWx]

One word of caution when looking at the GFS and CAG storms is that it is notorious for over estimating development and speed of development. These generally start as broad systems that can take awhile to organize. Looking at various models, a myriad of environments are depicted for the northern gulf including trough interactions, westerly shear, dry air. Not every model paints the most favorable picture for whatever develops and those details are not possible to resolve at this time. Now- that being said these also can be some of our worst storms, hurricane Michael being a prime example. I’d definitely use caution watching these endless GFS runs depicting gulf-filling monsters knowing it’s bias- but certainly it shows the potential. Key is all models show a storm in that timeframe and that is an extremely strong signal that a storm will form. NHC already bumped it up to an orange.  

[Seminole]

5 hours ago, traindog71 said:

It just creeps and pushes walls of water northward


.

A perfect run where the TC crawls along the loop current and explodes. 

[Seminole]

6Z GFS further west and misses the GOM loop current. Still a solid CAT 3 with a massive wind field. Landfall near Port St Joe. 

[cptcatz]

8 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Probably an H storm so for sure a miss in TB.  We only take I storms seriously.

Watch out with that next MDR storm. I'm actually surprised the NHC hasn't marked it yet, models are showing TCG taking place in the eastern Atlantic at a very similar time as the caribbean. The caribbean storm could very well be the dreaded I storm if it takes its time to organize...

[StantonParkHoya]

20 minutes ago, Seminole said:

6Z GFS further west and misses the GOM loop current. Still a solid CAT 3 with a massive wind field. Landfall near Port St Joe. 

Call me skeptical that a TC zips from the shores of Ol’ Mexico completely across the gulf to Florida like that

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Call me skeptical that a TC zips from the shores of Ol’ Mexico completely across the gulf to Florida like that

It gets pulled by the trough off the east coast, which is anonymously  far south. Also no ridging to stop it from recurving.

[Amped]

00z EPS shows a lot more support for a storm in the central gulf.

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

00z EPS shows a lot more support for a storm in the central gulf.

 

[yoda]

12z CMC is into W LA. 

12z GFS is only 500 miles NE of where it was at 06z at 225/228.  Headed into W FL north of Tampa.  Comes off E FL coast near JAX at 240.  Stays far enough offshore, but SE coastline from FL to NC gets raked

[StantonParkHoya]

Pretty wild path on GFS. I’m skeptical of such an anomalously digging trough in late September to cause a full recurve. A landfall Mobile-Big Bend then NE seems more plausible.

[WxWatcher007]

While it’s worth watching a possible one off in the dead tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR and perhaps something weak in the central Atlantic for TC genesis, obviously the western Caribbean is the place to pay closest attention. 

The homebrew signal I’ve been talking about since late August has evolved over the last week. Originally, the signal was for genesis potential off the SE coast and in the Gulf due to stalled frontal boundaries from anomalously strong late summer troughs. That led to our three invests, one which hit NS as a non tropical cyclone, one which became a PTC but fell just short of a tropical designation, and one that helped seed what became Hurricane Francine. 

Now we’re looking at a CAG signal, which as I’ve said before is a more tropical genesis pathway than what we formerly had. These can spin up one (most likely) or two TCs. While the ceilings are usually low, this environment seems like it has higher end potential given the extent of OHC, instability, and low wind shear—one area of the cool neutral ENSO that did come to fruition from the hyperactive seasonal forecasts.

Everything remains on the table, and I think anyone in the Gulf and to a lesser extent folks on the EC should be paying attention to this. 

[GaWx]

It is back on the UKMET (12Z) with it becoming a TC at 168 (12Z on 9/26) in NW Caribbean 150 miles SW of W tip of Cuba:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.1N  86.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 26.09.2024  168  20.1N  86.0W     1004            27

[GaWx]

 The SSN mean for Sept to date has been much lower than the 215 of Aug. That is especially the case the last 10 days, which have averaged only ~128. There’s no way to know but perhaps this is one of the reasons the tropical Atlantic is waking up and likely soon headed toward normal to above average activity. Perhaps Atlantic tropical instability is increasing and, if so, the solar downturn may be contributing to that:

2024 09 01 2024.668 182  14.5  27  35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195  20.7  26  33
2024 09 03 2024.673 180  21.2  20  23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174  26.1  21  26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181  13.1  15  20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189  13.3  19  24
2024 09 07 2024.684 168  17.8  24  29
2024 09 08 2024.687 171  18.7  20  26
2024 09 09 2024.690 156  19.1  23  26
2024 09 10 2024.693 149  12.8  24  30
2024 09 11 2024.695 153  15.4  29  34
2024 09 12 2024.698 144  11.6  24  28
2024 09 13 2024.701 118  13.1  26  31
2024 09 14 2024.704 117  10.6  24  31
2024 09 15 2024.706 100  14.1  22  27
2024 09 16 2024.709 142  16.2  22  27
2024 09 17 2024.712 141  13.4  28  36
2024 09 18 2024.714 109   9.9  24  28
2024 09 19 2024.717 109  11.1  25  31

[StantonParkHoya]

12z ICON extrapolated looks heading for Corpus Christi — Houston

[Floydbuster]

Let it be Helene, Joyce or Kirk. No more I names.

[purduewx80]

46 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Pretty wild path on GFS. I’m skeptical of such an anomalously digging trough in late September to cause a full recurve. A landfall Mobile-Big Bend then NE seems more plausible.

A track like that is entirely possible with the high latitude blocking in Canada/Greenland and wave breaking underneath. Plenty of Euro ensembles are showing something similar. It’s a thread the need situation no matter what. 

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The SSN mean for Sept to date has been much lower than the 215 of Aug. That is especially the case the last 10 days, which have averaged only ~128. There’s no way to know but perhaps this is one of the reasons the tropical Atlantic is waking up and likely soon headed toward normal to above average activity. Perhaps Atlantic tropical instability is increasing and, if so, the solar downturn may be contributing to that:

2024 09 01 2024.668 182  14.5  27  35
2024 09 02 2024.671 195  20.7  26  33
2024 09 03 2024.673 180  21.2  20  23
2024 09 04 2024.676 174  26.1  21  26
2024 09 05 2024.679 181  13.1  15  20
2024 09 06 2024.682 189  13.3  19  24
2024 09 07 2024.684 168  17.8  24  29
2024 09 08 2024.687 171  18.7  20  26
2024 09 09 2024.690 156  19.1  23  26
2024 09 10 2024.693 149  12.8  24  30
2024 09 11 2024.695 153  15.4  29  34
2024 09 12 2024.698 144  11.6  24  28
2024 09 13 2024.701 118  13.1  26  31
2024 09 14 2024.704 117  10.6  24  31
2024 09 15 2024.706 100  14.1  22  27
2024 09 16 2024.709 142  16.2  22  27
2024 09 17 2024.712 141  13.4  28  36
2024 09 18 2024.714 109   9.9  24  28
2024 09 19 2024.717 109  11.1  25  31

Vertical instability sits near climatological norms in the homebrew regions of the Gulf, EC, and Caribbean, but remains well below normal (but rising) in the tropical Atlantic.

[TPAwx]

Obviously in la la land range and one of many op runs that won’t come to pass.  But yeah that’s textbook no bueno scenario for TB region.