MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:40 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The 12Z EPS has fwiw a whopping 20% (10) of its 50 members with a H landfalling in the FL Big Bend to Panhandle region. Plus there are a couple of TS hits there, too. That’s a strong signal for so far out. Expect it to change from run to run. 18z gfs continues the theme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 10:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:47 PM 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z gfs continues the theme But over a day earlier than prior GFS runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:27 PM 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z gfs continues the theme Now a lemon: An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:59 PM 31 minutes ago, GaWx said: Now a lemon: An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted yesterday at 12:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:38 AM Will be interesting to follow the timing and the trough interaction. GFS does it again but the set up over the US MW is quite different each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted yesterday at 02:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:22 AM Now a lemon:An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.Seems like a lot of steam for only 20% or is that mostly because they think the development could be more than 7 days out? Sorry for the weenie question but this one seems to have quite the buzz so the 20% kinda threw me off. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:33 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:33 AM 3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Seems like a lot of steam for only 20% or is that mostly because they think the development could be more than 7 days out? Sorry for the weenie question but this one seems to have quite the buzz so the 20% kinda threw me off. . The TC genesis signal looks right on the edge of 7 days judging by the ensembles. While I think the CAG (Central American Gyre) signal is real and we have a good chance of something forming, I’d say we need more time to lock that signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted yesterday at 10:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:52 AM If I am interpreting the 6Z GFS correctly. We have a high end tropical storm off the Panama City coast that somehow drifts south east and proceeds into the Apalachee Bay as a low end CAT 1. It then maintains high end tropical storm intensity to though the entire eastern seaboard and then regains hurricane intensity over Pennsylvania and New York (Subtropical?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Given that AI models generally tend to blur or smooth the forecasted fields [Bonavito 2024] the ECMW-AI looks really spicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM It seems to me the inhibiting factor for development could be the broad circulation may have trouble tightening. This seems to be why the GFS has a very large hurricane, while the Euro has shown on several runs a broad area of low pressure that never develops despite reasonably favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted yesterday at 03:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:47 PM 55 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Given that AI models generally tend to blur or smooth the forecasted fields [Bonavito 2024] the ECMW-AI looks really spicy. Massive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Having the repeat signals from the EPS and GEFS run after run is —as many have already stated—as strong an indication as any at this lead time that a strong tropical system is likely to develop. And then we have the MJO transition phase 6 to 7/8. The high amplitude troughiness seen across the central/Eastern CONUS on some of the op runs around the time of interest is much more likely than not… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago The NHC lemon has just come into the 12Z UKMET’s 168 hour range and it has TCG at 162 in NW Caribbean 200 miles SSW of W top of Cuba moving NNE toward W Cuba on 9/25: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 18.9N 86.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.09.2024 168 19.4N 86.0W 1004 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: It seems to me the inhibiting factor for development could be the broad circulation may have trouble tightening. This seems to be why the GFS has a very large hurricane, while the Euro has shown on several runs a broad area of low pressure that never develops despite reasonably favorable conditions. This is a really good point, and is a good place for a reminder that usually CAG systems are slow to develop and are relatively lower ceiling at least initially because they can be so broad. Michael was an exception to the rule. Turning to the GFS…it looks like the eastern trough is enough to take it north and then NE across FL, but then a ridge rolls over the northern U.S. and traps it from escaping OTS immediately in advance of another trough that could kick or draw north. Just one of many solutions but I think the Gulf and East Coast should be watching this one closely. This looks like a favorable intensification environment if a low can build a well-organized structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Other 12Z: -GFS 988 into FL Big Bend early 9/27 and then ENE to N of Daytona -CMC 974 Pensacola late afternoon 9/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: Other 12Z: -GFS 988 into FL Big Bend early 9/27 and then ENE to N of Daytona -CMC 974 Pensacola late afternoon 9/26 Not sure I buy the 36 hour cutoff idea on the GFS as it sits off the GA/FL coast before finally deciding to skedaddle NE and out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Just now, yoda said: Not sure I buy the 36 hour cutoff idea on the GFS as it sits off the GA/FL coast I don’t either. These are vastly different run to run differences—to be expected as you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t either. These are vastly different run to run differences—to be expected as you know. True, but I think this is the first time we have seen this type of solution. I believe we are getting towards a "storm will be happening"... the question is strength and track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago That first trough doesn't dig like earlier runs on that 12z GFS run - leaves it behind until another trough comes through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 12Z Euro: far NE TX 9/28 998 mb 12Z JMA: middle of Gulf 9/26 moving N 1004 mb 12Z Euro ens: quite active with main US threat E LA to Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Seems like the model average is around Mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Less dust when the area is flooding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 18z GFS with some big changes. Less trough dig, more ridging into gulf, takes Cat 4/5 into Louisiana coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago The pattern that produced Wilma in ‘05 just moved to the top analog in the 6-10 day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: The pattern that produced Wilma in ‘05 just moved to the top analog in the 6-10 day. 18z GFS sure trended to something more like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Definite filth on the 18z GFS. TS winds from Galveston to New Orleans. Hurricane gusts from the Golden Triangle to Houma. Still grain of salt type of run that far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 10 minutes ago, BRSno said: 18z GFS sure trended to something more like this Eh, Wilma intensified to an historic Cat 5 in the Caribbean. Current ensemble suite doesn’t suggest anything like a repeat, but in general the analogs are showing how we get a potential major hurricane to come north out of the Caribbean. Somewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf is most likely at this point, but there’s a huge amount of spread in timing and location, such that anywhere in the Gulf is probably fair game. This one will have off-the-charts OHC to work with and will probably be able to take advantage of the loop current farther north, too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 35 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: 18z GFS with some big changes. Less trough dig, more ridging into gulf, takes Cat 4/5 into Louisiana coast The Euro has stayed steady with the trough not influencing the potential TC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Something about this gives me the vibe this is “the storm” of the year for the US. Lots of potential next week lots of model watching coming up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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