2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

@GaWx I know 99L and PTC 8 didn’t complete tropical genesis, but the pattern has been ripe for development and I think it’s becoming even more conducive with a possible CAG setting up next week and maybe beyond. Unlike frontal boundaries, these regions are purely tropical, moisture laden, and don’t necessarily have the shear issues.

That said, anything trying to pop in a CAG would need time to develop, and given the broader eastern CONUS pattern it’s unclear if anything substantial can happen before areas are drawn north by the continued troughing we’ve seen. The homebrew regions of the Gulf, western Caribbean, and southeast coast is where my focus is the next two weeks. 

[MANDA]

For informational purposes only. 

Every basin in the Northern Hemisphere is now below normal by all metrics.

We've just started the "3rd. Quarter" so still time for anything in the Atlantic basin.  MJO forecast much more favorable later next week into first half of October so we're poised to make up some ground.  Will it be enough ground to make it a hyperactive season?  Likely not.

Another 1 or 2 quality hits could make it very memorable though.  That is on the table.

Anyone still thinking we get 20+ names?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@GaWx I know 99L and PTC 8 didn’t complete tropical genesis, but the pattern has been ripe for development and I think it’s becoming even more conducive with a possible CAG setting up next week and maybe beyond. Unlike frontal boundaries, these regions are purely tropical, moisture laden, and don’t necessarily have the shear issues.

That said, anything trying to pop in a CAG would need time to develop, and given the broader eastern CONUS pattern it’s unclear if anything substantial can happen before areas are drawn north by the continued troughing we’ve seen. The homebrew regions of the Gulf, western Caribbean, and southeast coast is where my focus is the next two weeks. 

The late portion of the 12Z Euro with its TC heading W toward NC is more of a fwiw/mainly for entertainment run than the late portion of the 12Z CMC imo because unlike the CMC this Euro is very different from prior Euros. Interestingly, this isn’t at all from a tropical origin and is instead related to a combo of PTC-8’s vorticity going NE and the vorticity associated with that 32N, 70W circulation that I mentioned earlier going N. They combine and get stuck near NYC under a new Rex block. Then a new surface low forms Wed night (only 60 hours from now), moves S, and then turns W late. I want to first see if there will even be a surface low that forms SE of NYC wed night. Also, I’m going to keep watching that circulation near 32N, 70W as it heads N.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

For informational purposes only. 

Every basin in the Northern Hemisphere is now below normal by all metrics.

We've just started the "3rd. Quarter" so still time for anything in the Atlantic basin.  MJO forecast much more favorable later next week into first half of October so we're poised to make up some ground.  Will it be enough ground to make it a hyperactive season?  Likely not.

Another 1 or 2 quality hits could make it very memorable though.  That is on the table.

Anyone still thinking we get 20+ names?

20 names in 2025

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looking back, when the East coast was super dry May-June, and the cap wasn't breaking for anything, that should have been a good signal that the tropics wouldn't be as wet. 

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies, which have been quite impressive both with the very active early season as well as the relatively quiet peak season, are like they have for many days still calling for weekly ACE rising to near normal  late Sep and to well above normal in the first 2 weeks of Oct, like it or not.

[Floydbuster]

The ensembles of both the GFS and EURO are showing two systems in the next week or so. One coming from the Southwest Caribbean, threatening the Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida or the Gulf Coast, while another system forms off Africa. 

[Torch Tiger]

6 hours ago, MANDA said:

For informational purposes only. 

Every basin in the Northern Hemisphere is now below normal by all metrics.

We've just started the "3rd. Quarter" so still time for anything in the Atlantic basin.  MJO forecast much more favorable later next week into first half of October so we're poised to make up some ground.  Will it be enough ground to make it a hyperactive season?  Likely not.

Another 1 or 2 quality hits could make it very memorable though.  That is on the table.

Anyone still thinking we get 20+ names?

My forecast (and most) busted,  it'd take a miracle birth rate from either the crummy N ATl or Carib/GOM to get 20+.   I wouldn't argue well into teens 

[Floydbuster]

These kids born into the post-Katrina world are spoiled rotten. 

I remember tracking Hurricane Season 2000 when I was a teenager. We didn't even heat up until late September with Hurricanes Isaac, Joyce and Keith. No hurricanes in July, let alone Category 5 storms. No hurricanes hit America in 2000 or 2001. 

The U.S. saw no hurricane landfalls between the day after my 11th birthday (Irene, 1999) and a week and a half before my 14th birthday (Lili, 2002). When you are a teenager tracking hurricanes, 11 to 14 years old is a long time. I had plenty of Caribbean action like Keith, Iris and Michelle...but no hurricanes between Irene and Lili for the U.S. coastline. 

These kids have had three hurricanes strike America within a few weeks, and they still cry. I feel like an old grump. 

 

[Windspeed]

These kids born into the post-Katrina world are spoiled rotten ... I feel like an old grump.

[GaWx]

For the 8th run in a row the CMC has a TC form in the W Caribbean 9/21-2 and move N toward the U.S.

 The 0Z GFS also has a similar storm that comes in a little later. Before that interestingly enough, it does something similar to the 12Z Euro forming a weak LLC SE of NYC at least partially from the remnants of PTC-8. It similarly moves S and gets down to 1001 mb. But instead of turning W to NC, it then turns SW and goes over C FL while opening up.

[Maxwell03]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

These kids born into the post-Katrina world are spoiled rotten. 

I remember tracking Hurricane Season 2000 when I was a teenager. We didn't even heat up until late September with Hurricanes Isaac, Joyce and Keith. No hurricanes in July, let alone Category 5 storms. No hurricanes hit America in 2000 or 2001. 

The U.S. saw no hurricane landfalls between the day after my 11th birthday (Irene, 1999) and a week and a half before my 14th birthday (Lili, 2002). When you are a teenager tracking hurricanes, 11 to 14 years old is a long time. I had plenty of Caribbean action like Keith, Iris and Michelle...but no hurricanes between Irene and Lili for the U.S. coastline. 

These kids have had three hurricanes strike America within a few weeks, and they still cry. I feel like an old grump. 

 

Maybe so, but you don’t have to be that old to remember the gap between Ike and Irene, plus the 2013-2015 downturn (especially 2013). And although they’ve delivered hits, these recent years have also delivered prolonged calm periods. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Everyone here is just looking for a bona fide red meat major LF. Also- the entire east coast is in a significant MH drought that many thought might end this year. 20 years is pretty shocking considering all the majors we have had in the gulf during that period. 3 continental US hurricane hits is definitely not a slow season in that regard 

[NorthHillsWx]

There is a very strong signal, as others have mentioned, for something coming out of the western Caribbean and moving north into the gulf in the 7-10 day timeframe. This needs to be watched 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

These kids born into the post-Katrina world are spoiled rotten. 

I remember tracking Hurricane Season 2000 when I was a teenager. We didn't even heat up until late September with Hurricanes Isaac, Joyce and Keith. No hurricanes in July, let alone Category 5 storms. No hurricanes hit America in 2000 or 2001. 

The U.S. saw no hurricane landfalls between the day after my 11th birthday (Irene, 1999) and a week and a half before my 14th birthday (Lili, 2002). When you are a teenager tracking hurricanes, 11 to 14 years old is a long time. I had plenty of Caribbean action like Keith, Iris and Michelle...but no hurricanes between Irene and Lili for the U.S. coastline. 

These kids have had three hurricanes strike America within a few weeks, and they still cry. I feel like an old grump. 

 

OK unc

[cptcatz]

GFS now with 4 runs in a row with a major hurricane in the Gulf/Florida Straits. That 0z run demolishes the entire east coast. GFS and CMC now in good agreement, just need to see if Euro comes in board or not. 

[bdgwx]

And yet again the ECMWF's AI model has been hinting at robust tropical development whereas the operational model is anemic with it. At least in terms of tropical cyclone genesis the AI has been an overachiever relative to the operational model in terms of skill this year. 

[Amped]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

GFS now with 4 runs in a row with a major hurricane in the Gulf/Florida Straits. That 0z run demolishes the entire east coast. GFS and CMC now in good agreement, just need to see if Euro comes in board or not. 

It's our only trackable threat at the moment. Euro at least has something even though it's pretty weak.

[MJO812]

Gfs and cmc have a hurricane into Florida at the end of September

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS brings a cat 2 into Tampa, meaning it’s wrong. Hurricanes don’t hit Tampa 

[Seminole]

37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS brings a cat 2 into Tampa, meaning it’s wrong. Hurricanes don’t hit Tampa 

The GFS has been all over the gulf coast of Florida the last 3 runs. Naples 00Z. Pensacola 06Z. Split the difference with Tampa 12Z. The 00Z run was interesting because after it crosses over Florida it hugs the entire eastern seaboard as a solid CAT 3 all the way to New York. 

[Amped]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS brings a cat 2 into Tampa, meaning it’s wrong. Hurricanes don’t hit Tampa 

Cmc has Cat1 winds in Tampa despite landfall being in the panhandle.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro is another that still has nothing of significance, far different from the GFS/CMC/Euro-AI.

 The 12Z GEFS favors FL including panhandle whereas the GEPS is about 50% FL Big Bend south and 50% E LA to AL.

 For those not familiar: Operationals are of limited use this far out because they’re like throwing darts to a pretty far away dartboard. The ensemble members are also darts to a far away dartboard but there are a bunch of darts at once to better give us tendencies/trends.

[purduewx80]

NHC should be adding it to their 7-day outlook any day now. At least CPC is on it with today's update. There’s a lot of uncertainty with the troughs and ridge placement next week, so I guess we can’t rule out a Euro-like solution under a Gulf ridge into Central America. Certainly more of a consensus in the ensembles for a track north or northeast across Cuba and Florida for now. 

[cptcatz]

Interesting thing to note is how big the models are showing this storm being. Remember that storm surge isn't about the max winds of the eye wall but the size of the storm and the time over water are far more impactful. This set up could result in historic storm surge. 

[GaWx]

The 12Z EPS has fwiw a whopping 20% (10) of its 50 members with a H landfalling in the FL Big Bend to Panhandle region. Plus there are a couple of TS hits there, too. That’s a strong signal for so far out. Expect it to change from run to run.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS has fwiw a whopping 20% (10) of its 50 members with a H landfalling in the FL Big Bend to Panhandle region. Plus there are a couple of TS hits there, too. That’s a strong signal for so far out. Expect it to change from run to run.

18z gfs continues the theme

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z gfs continues the theme

 But over a day earlier than prior GFS runs

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z gfs continues the theme

Now a lemon:

An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western 
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is 
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to 
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Now a lemon:

An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western 
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is 
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to 
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.