2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ldub23]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Snow showing up on models near the Great Lakes is pretty indicative of lessening hurricane chances north of Florida. Major east coast trough looks well established for the next 2-3 weeks. I’m, once again, not saying the east coast won’t have a storm, but given that look the odds would seem to be slim 

The ridge will be strong and  long  lasting for winter though.

[Seminole]

57 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Snow showing up on models near the Great Lakes is pretty indicative of lessening hurricane chances north of Florida. Major east coast trough looks well established for the next 2-3 weeks. I’m, once again, not saying the east coast won’t have a storm, but given that look the odds would seem to be slim 

Those 540 lines are telling. South Florida and Texas are still in play for a major but the rest of the lower 48 the odds of a major is diminishing rapidly.  

[ldub23]

4 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Those 540 lines are telling. South Florida and Texas are still in play for a major but the rest of the lower 48 the odds of a major is diminishing rapidly.  

I dont think Texas need  worry about a  major this  year. SW FLA always  has to worry about a NE  moving  major from the West Carib.

[Scott747]

Thought it was a long shot but just offshore of Galveston/Freeport is looking interesting this morning.

 

[Normandy]

Agree I think we get a name out of this gulf system.  Very clear low on radar and satellite just offshore 

[WxWatcher007]

We have 5 lemons in the basin and a new invest, so let's take a quick morning look at each because any of them could have a chance in the short or long term. I attach my own personal odds of development to each. 

1. Invest 99L--40% odds of subtropical development

The area off the east coast has continued to be interesting on satellite and the models despite being blasted by exceptionally high shear and as a result, we have our first invest in an eternity.

What's most of interest to me this morning is that despite the shear, you can clearly see the low level center try to tuck itself under deeper convection, a key element for TC genesis. The model signals continue to suggest that in the next 48 hours or so this has its best chance to further organize and deepen some. I'd prefer to see a tighter low rather than some of the current model depictions to feel that genesis is more likely, but for now this has held its own in a high shear environment. 

I think the shear ultimately keeps this from becoming fully tropical, but we'll see. WPC analysis still has this attached to a boundary for now. 

What to watch for: evidence of convection building over the LLC on IR

2. Area of Interest in northern Gulf of Mexico--30% odds

Sometimes the door is open, and something just needs to walk through. I'm not sure if the area of interest that folks have been tracking for days now will step forward, but this morning it looks like it's trying. Shout out to @salbers for sticking with this one. 

On satellite, we see the sun rise over deep convection just off the Texas coast. Radar suggests that there is some level of a low level rotation, though imo the signal is just modest. 

This is the strongest iteration of what we've been tracking however, and given the SSTs in the area, present area of deep convection, and apparent pocket of low wind shear, it has a chance to develop. However, the big caveat is that there's not a lot of time to do so. 

The models bring a boundary through the region as early as tomorrow afternoon, meaning that the upper winds become hostile for any organization. If this one is going to steal a name, it needs to do it fast. With more time, I'd say this one has a fairly good chance of development, but with little time it seems much less likely. This is one that'll be interesting to watch through the day though, especially if deep convection can continue to fire over the apparent center. 

What to watch for: persistent deep convection over the center on IR, and evidence of a tightening LLC, increase in velocities, and banding on radar.

3. Western Caribbean Wave--30% odds

We've been tracking this one seemingly forever, and it's entering the put up or shut up stage. Our wave has a little more spin and convection this morning, but probably not enough time to do anything meaningful before hitting land. Its best shot will be in the Bay of Campeche, where there's still a model signal for development, though it's not as robust as it once was. 

I'm far less bullish than I was the other day, but anytime a wave gets into the BoC it bears watching. 

4. Eastern Atlantic Wave & Monsoon Trough--20%

This is meh for now, but guidance has shown that something could pop out of the monsoon trough in the central Atlantic at any point in the next 7-10 days, and there is a longer range signal for an African wave to develop. Wake me up when it actually happens given the massive stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. This area gets a 1/5 shot right now out of respect for climo.  

5. Central Atlantic Wave--10%

This one may be more interesting 5 days from now, but as it travels WNW into the western Atlantic, there is some signal, most notably on the Euro that it'll try to organize some before getting either obliterated or turned OTS by an east coast trough. Nothing interesting at this time. 

[GaWx]

 Kudos to @salbersbut also kudos to the ICON. No other model has even been close as far as consistently showing a closed surface low getting going around now in the NW Gulf. Folks can see it for themselves by looking at old runs going back many days right now at TT. That model has also been showing it move south toward the Bay of Campeche and getting stronger through the weekend.

 A few runs of the UKMET have had something but the ICON looks like the easy winner.

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The ridge will be strong and  long  lasting for winter though.

I had the same thought.  Come December it will wake up and be in our face.

[GaWx]

 The NW Gulf notwithstanding, there very well may be a connection between very high sunspot numbers and the recent quiet in the Atlantic basin. I just became aware of a good number of papers thanks to @jconsorwritten dating back to 2008 suggesting a partial negative correlation between sunspots and hurricane activity. The idea is that when the sun has an increasing level of sunspots, the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere immediately get warmer thus increasing atmospheric stability in a general sense.

 Of course proving this relationship isn’t easy due to other variables. But the authors discuss this and seem to have done well taking these other variables into account.

 I was first made aware of a possible connection only last week by Joe D’Aleo and seconded by Bastardi. But I didn’t feel comfortable depending on them saying this and thus wanted to see some actual studies. Well, now that I have seen the papers, I feel more confident that there really is something to this.

 The August SSN of 215 is the highest of the active era for any August. And August had only two NS (even though both were hurricanes). But since Ernesto it has been exceedingly quiet relative to climo. In light of the following papers, this may be a major contributor to the quiet.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2008GL034431

https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsner2010.pdf

http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerHodges2010.pdf

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.5402/2012/517962

https://sci-hub.ru/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.09.012

https://ephyslab.uvigo.es/publica/documents/file_358JASTP_2015.pdf

[Scott747]

Last hour I've been around sustained 20 with a few gusts over TS force.

Surely they upgrade chances at the next TWO. Not sure if it warrants a PTC but can't be that far off even if it's only in a 12-18 hr window.

 

[WxWatcher007]

12z models so far are a little more robust with the Gulf low by keeping the center offshore. Plenty of rain for parts of the coast though.

[GaWx]

Regarding NW Gulf:

 Latest UKMET (12Z) now has TCG at hour 6, much sooner than the hour 60 of the 0Z run. It then drifts S through the weekend:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 27.9N  95.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 06.09.2024   12  28.1N  94.9W     1008            23
    1200UTC 06.09.2024   24  28.3N  94.3W     1006            27
    0000UTC 07.09.2024   36  27.7N  94.3W     1005            34
    1200UTC 07.09.2024   48  25.3N  94.5W     1004            32
    0000UTC 08.09.2024   60  24.2N  93.9W     1003            35
    1200UTC 08.09.2024   72              CEASED TRACKING

[wthrmn654]

BREAKING NEWS:

we now have 2 ⁰% chances

5 things nothing over 20%

 

Back to your regularly schedule programming! 

[wthrmn654]

[Floydbuster]

https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1831684630858154451

[wthrmn654]

@WxWatcher007 just making a funny while we all wait for winter, i mean tropical-ness

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

@WxWatcher007 just making a funny while we all wait for winter, i mean tropical-ness

All good. This place should be fun especially during the “down” times. 

[wthrmn654]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All good. This place should be fun especially during the “down” times. 

i desire a hurricane to hit long island so this whole dead tropics and lack of winters past few years stops!  its getting so old fast!

[GaWx]

 For the first time like the GFS/CMC, the Euro (12Z) has this NW Gulf low (1011 mb now). It then drifts S (similarly to ICON/UK/others) while getting stronger. It doesn’t reach peak strength til Saturday, when it gets down to 1003 mb at 27N. Keep in mind that the Euro like the GFS/CMC is playing catch-up.

 Rumor (i.e., unconfirmed) from an outside source is that this is now Invest 90L. ICON has been amazing with this although the 12Z Euro may have been the main deciding factor.

[GaWx]

 Confirmation that NW GOM low is now Invest 90L:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902024.dat

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Confirmation that NW GOM low is now Invest 90L:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902024.dat

Two invests in one day almost feels historic lol

[GaWx]

I nominate @salbers to start the Invest 90L thread for two reasons:

1) I don’t want to.

2) salbers has been right on top of this and thus deserves the honor.

 If salbers doesn’t want to, I’d then nominate the ICON to start the thread.

[olafminesaw]

Looks like the GFS takes the energy from 90L across Mexico into the Pacific where it becomes a hurricane, making landfall in Mexico before crossing back into the Gulf and developing into a hurricane again.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like the GFS takes the energy from 90L across Mexico into the Pacific where it becomes a hurricane, making landfall in Mexico before crossing back into the Gulf and developing into a hurricane again.

Tales from the gfs insane computer asylum 

[purduewx80]

90L is an interesting one and could fujiwhara or even merge with the western Caribbean wave. Icon and its ensembles have been showing this for several days. Whatever evolves in the western Gulf may struggle due to the competing waves initially, an east Pac storm, intrusions of dry air aloft from the east and at lower levels from the northwest, with  substantial shear likely an issue as it drifts north next week. Looks like the ensembles are showing less support for a hurricane than a few days ago, but there’s still a lot to iron out. 

[salbers]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Kudos to @salbersbut also kudos to the ICON. No other model has even been close as far as consistently showing a closed surface low getting going around now in the NW Gulf. Folks can see it for themselves by looking at old runs going back many days right now at TT. That model has also been showing it move south toward the Bay of Campeche and getting stronger through the weekend.

 A few runs of the UKMET have had something but the ICON looks like the easy winner.

Thanks GaWx - Fyi I've mentioned the Spire Hi-res model also showing this since last Friday (with a break over the weekend) as well. The model forecasts were discussed at the time in some online video presentations. This model (called SRFS) has been more consistently to the north than the ICON. One place to see a collection of these videos is here:

https://insights.spire.com/jvf

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Tales from the gfs insane computer asylum 

Do you have anything normal to say or different? You say the same stupid crap every time...

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Do you have anything normal to say or different? You say the same stupid crap every time...

I suggest you put him/her on ignore if you don’t like the posts to keep from getting frustrated. It isn’t worth getting into a battle and disrupting the thread.

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We have 5 lemons in the basin and a new invest, so let's take a quick morning look at each because any of them could have a chance in the short or long term. I attach my own personal odds of development to each. 

1. Invest 99L--40% odds of subtropical development

The area off the east coast has continued to be interesting on satellite and the models despite being blasted by exceptionally high shear and as a result, we have our first invest in an eternity.

What's most of interest to me this morning is that despite the shear, you can clearly see the low level center try to tuck itself under deeper convection, a key element for TC genesis. The model signals continue to suggest that in the next 48 hours or so this has its best chance to further organize and deepen some. I'd prefer to see a tighter low rather than some of the current model depictions to feel that genesis is more likely, but for now this has held its own in a high shear environment. 

I think the shear ultimately keeps this from becoming fully tropical, but we'll see. WPC analysis still has this attached to a boundary for now. 

What to watch for: evidence of convection building over the LLC on IR

2. Area of Interest in northern Gulf of Mexico--30% odds

Sometimes the door is open, and something just needs to walk through. I'm not sure if the area of interest that folks have been tracking for days now will step forward, but this morning it looks like it's trying. Shout out to @salbers for sticking with this one. 

On satellite, we see the sun rise over deep convection just off the Texas coast. Radar suggests that there is some level of a low level rotation, though imo the signal is just modest. 

This is the strongest iteration of what we've been tracking however, and given the SSTs in the area, present area of deep convection, and apparent pocket of low wind shear, it has a chance to develop. However, the big caveat is that there's not a lot of time to do so. 

The models bring a boundary through the region as early as tomorrow afternoon, meaning that the upper winds become hostile for any organization. If this one is going to steal a name, it needs to do it fast. With more time, I'd say this one has a fairly good chance of development, but with little time it seems much less likely. This is one that'll be interesting to watch through the day though, especially if deep convection can continue to fire over the apparent center. 

What to watch for: persistent deep convection over the center on IR, and evidence of a tightening LLC, increase in velocities, and banding on radar.

3. Western Caribbean Wave--30% odds

We've been tracking this one seemingly forever, and it's entering the put up or shut up stage. Our wave has a little more spin and convection this morning, but probably not enough time to do anything meaningful before hitting land. Its best shot will be in the Bay of Campeche, where there's still a model signal for development, though it's not as robust as it once was. 

I'm far less bullish than I was the other day, but anytime a wave gets into the BoC it bears watching. 

4. Eastern Atlantic Wave & Monsoon Trough--20%

This is meh for now, but guidance has shown that something could pop out of the monsoon trough in the central Atlantic at any point in the next 7-10 days, and there is a longer range signal for an African wave to develop. Wake me up when it actually happens given the massive stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. This area gets a 1/5 shot right now out of respect for climo.  

5. Central Atlantic Wave--10%

This one may be more interesting 5 days from now, but as it travels WNW into the western Atlantic, there is some signal, most notably on the Euro that it'll try to organize some before getting either obliterated or turned OTS by an east coast trough. Nothing interesting at this time. 

 Other than the Gulf/Caribbean in the immediate future, I think that the most interesting AEW isn’t even in your list: one not coming off Africa til ~9/10. Looking at ensembles/ops, that’s the one leading to these operational (GFS/Euro/ICON/CMC) E MDR TCs. I don’t recall seeing one that active right off Africa on ensembles/operationals in at least quite awhile. And note that this is coming off Africa at about the same latitude as recent ones. Not further south. And yet it still may turn into something.

 Looking back at history for AEWs that developed in the E Atlantic near or just after Sept 10th, these were 3 of the worst.
-Hugo (1989)
-Gloria (1985)
-Long Island Express (1938)

 I’m by no means saying a track anything like that would likely occur as many that develop early also recurve early. Rather I am saying that 9/10 still isn’t at all too late for a long-tracked CV storm, especially with cold neutral/weak Niña. Hope not but that’s a fact.

[cptcatz]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Other than the Gulf/Caribbean in the immediate future, I think that the most interesting AEW isn’t even in your list: one not coming off Africa til ~9/10. Looking at ensembles/ops, that’s the one leading to these operational (GFS/Euro/ICON/CMC) E MDR TCs. I don’t recall seeing one that active right off Africa on ensembles/operationals in at least quite awhile. And note that this is coming off Africa at about the same latitude as recent ones. Not further south. And yet it still may turn into something.

 Looking back at history for AEWs that developed in the E Atlantic near or just after Sept 10th, these were 3 of the worst.
-Hugo (1989)
-Gloria (1985)
-Long Island Express (1938)

 I’m by no means saying a track anything like that would likely occur as many that develop early also recurve early. Rather I am saying that 9/10 still isn’t at all too late for a long-tracked CV storm, especially with cold neutral/weak Niña. Hope not but that’s a fact.

Yeah this one is looking interesting to me, especially after that 18z GFS run.  I wasn't around for either of those three above storms but I am getting Irma vibes from this.