2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NorthHillsWx]

I said September 2 was when I was pressing the bust button for the hyperactive season, and here we are. 

[cptcatz]

The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms? 

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms? 

 

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms? 

Very little in the way of other model support for that run even from its own ensembles. The EPS  also has very little support  that I can see.

[cptcatz]

Might be grasping at straws here but it looks like the wave entering the caribbean has split with a solid area of convection heading WNW north of the islands towards the bahamas. Maybe something to watch?

[ldub23]

I will watch

[Floydbuster]

10 hours ago, yoda said:

 

 

 

There is still time to have more activity, but I am stunned at how silent August was given the odds of such high hyperactivity, especially after a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean the first week of July. The 2013 comparisons are not well advised, given that we have already had a Category 5 storm, and two United States hurricane landfalls. Even if nothing else occurred, this season well outpaces that one. 

[salbers]

Convection flaring up off the TX coast, though the circulation is more off to the SW.

https://col.st/sge0Q

[CheeselandSkies]

38 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

There is still time to have more activity, but I am stunned at how silent August was given the odds of such high hyperactivity, especially after a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean the first week of July. The 2013 comparisons are not well advised, given that we have already had a Category 5 storm, and two United States hurricane landfalls. Even if nothing else occurred, this season well outpaces that one. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the 2013 comparison is apt because the alarm bells for this year were hit quite a bit harder than in 2013. 2013 was expected to be active, yes, but not "1933 in the satellite era" levels of insanity from ALL the seasonal forecasting sources of note. So the activity for 2024 has been somewhat greater, yes, but the bar was also set higher.

Again, I could be wrong, since in the July-September period of 2013 I was moving and starting a new job, therefore I probably paid the least amount of attention to tropical weather of my life since I was old enough to watch John Hope on The Weather Channel. It was probably about midway through September when I was like "Huh, shouldn't there be some hurricane threats right about now? Guess it's a quiet season."

[Floydbuster]

6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the 2013 comparison is apt because the alarm bells for this year were hit quite a bit harder than in 2013. 2013 was expected to be active, yes, but not "1933 in the satellite era" levels of insanity from ALL the seasonal forecasting sources of note. So the activity for 2024 has been somewhat greater, yes, but the bar was also set higher.

Again, I could be wrong, since in the July-September period of 2013 I was moving and starting a new job, therefore I probably paid the least amount of attention to tropical weather of my life since I was old enough to watch John Hope on The Weather Channel. It was probably about midway through September when I was like "Huh, shouldn't there be some hurricane threats right about now? Guess it's a quiet season."

Agree on the numbers, but 2013 didn't even produce a U.S. hurricane landfall or a single storm above Category 1 intensity. 

I never thought this year would exhaust the name list. Those years are exceptionally rare. 

[MANDA]

Biggest question in the tropics today is do we get to "peak day" September 10 without another named system.  Certainly looks like we make it to 9/7 with nothing.  Big numbers forecast (20+) now all but a sure fail.  Still lots of time left for some notable storms and hits but we're not getting to 20+.  All about quality over quantity at this point.  Normal ACE to date is 41.1 and we are at 51.1 currently.  Normal ACE by 9/10 is 58.2 so we are likely to fall to below normal by then.  Normal ACE by 9/7 is where we are now at 51.1.

Not calling the season over just being realistic on the big number totals that have been out there for months.  One forecast (will not mention names) had a named storm total of 33.

I'm sure I'll get a or two but so be it.

 

 

[salbers]

By September 10 we get this chance in the ECMWF judging from the model trend loop in the East Atlantic.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024090212&fh=198&r=eatl&dpdt=loop&mc=

[Floydbuster]

10 minutes ago, salbers said:

By September 10 we get this chance in the ECMWF judging from the model trend loop in the East Atlantic.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024090212&fh=198&r=eatl&dpdt=loop&mc=

We shall see. Still a bit north though. I really think the ITCZ being so far north is a big factor in why August was quiet.

[salbers]

In the Gulf the ICON model has the low in the western Gulf eventually merging with a wave coming in from the east. Perhaps the western Gulf low is being supported by a short wave visible in water vapor satellite to the west near the Big Bend?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024090218&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=icon (ICON loop)

https://col.st/OeOjg (Water vapor satellite)

[dbullsfan]

I don't think it's a matter of if this season will come under the lofty totals many had but by how many. To be honest I'm okay with that we could use a quiet summer for once as boring as that may make it in here. This season so far has reminded me of a running back who runs the first carry of the game for a 80 yard TD and than finishes the first half at 4 carries for 83 yards. Now lets just see what the 2nd half has in store. 

[Windspeed]

The MDR wave from last week's big AEW is gaining a robust convective envelope tonight. It's worth watching just to see if it pulls off some quick development through late week. There is an upper trough that is modeled to amplify north of the Lesser Antilles in 3-4 days that will likely impede the system with strong shear regardless. But in the meantime, perhaps it can grab a name and end the drought.

[Floydbuster]

We already have had one destructive memorable hurricane, for sure. Some years don't produce any. I'm quite confident the name Beryl will be retired.

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

7 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

We shall see. Still a bit north though. I really think the ITCZ being so far north is a big factor in why August was quiet.

Saw this pop up on Youtube a few hours ago when looking at the news. They agree with you about the ITCZ.

 

[Windspeed]

Welp...

[Normandy]

Yea this season is going to humble many many a meterologist.  Something’s wrong (or the climate models busted substantially)

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

Yea this season is going to humble many many a meterologist.  Something’s wrong (or the climate models busted substantially)

Were there any forecasts for a quiet year?  I saw at least half a dozen that called for an epic year

[Seminole]

13 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Yea this season is going to humble many many a meterologist.  Something’s wrong (or the climate models busted substantially)

No one seems to know what is wrong. I do find it interesting that the Sahara is experiencing years worth of rain during this quiet period of no named storms.  

[Seminole]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Were there any forecasts for a quiet year?  I saw at least half a dozen that called for an epic year

None that I can recall. Everyone was on board the hyper active year bandwagon. 

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Seminole said:

No one seems to know what is wrong. I do find it interesting that the Sahara is experiencing years worth of rain during this quiet period of no named storms.  

it would seem that the disturbances are too far north-once they come off the African coast, it's over cooler waters.     Also, the Nina is much weaker that forecast...

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it would seem that the disturbances are too far north-once they come off the African coast, it's over cooler waters.     Also, the Nina is much weaker that forecast...

1. There are three AOIs on the TWO that are between 12N and 15N, which are not north at all. Furthermore, they’ve been at 15N or further S since leaving Africa:

2. Nino 3.4 has been warmer than expected. But cold neutral isn’t typically hostile for activity. In addition, on a RONI basis we’re already near -0.7 (weak Niña).

3. Joe D’Aleo *fwiw* has recently been suspecting the current very active sun causing reduced instability in the atmosphere via a warming of the upper atmosphere. The August sunspot mean of 215 was the highest for August since 1991. There MAY be a partial correlation that puts a ceiling on ACE (i.e., perhaps making it very difficult to have a hyperactive season when sunspots are very high). The highest season’s ACE that has occurred with ASO sunspots of 175+ is the 149 of 1980 fwiw. With Aug at 215, there’s a high chance that ASO of 2024’s sunspots will be 175+:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical Update--September 3, 2024

Yikes

Now that we're actually moving through the upswing of the climatological peak of the season, we're entering epic bust territory. 

 

Since Hurricane Ernesto early in August, there has been an intractable lid on the Atlantic. Not just the MDR, but the entire basin. We have held at 5/3/1, and while our ACE number is still above normal for this time of year due to the fast start and high end systems relative to the early part of the season, we've gone from historically active to historically...inactive. 

According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, this is the first time since 1968 that we haven't had a named storm between August 13 and September 3. That's extraordinary. 

There is a lot of conversation happening in the tropical wx space about reasons for this. I'd argue that despite historically warm SST/OHC and anomalously low wind shear across the MDR most of the season, that a combination of stability, SAL, and in the last month or so, a much further north ITCZ leading to waves leaving Africa too far north to survive getting to even the central Atlantic has been the main culprit. It's possible that too wet a West African Monsoon is bad for TC genesis. 

Stability issues further west into the tropical Atlantic (the area between Africa and the Antilles) has stifled everything that has tried to develop there in essentially the last month. Even now, it's not a good look in the tropical Atlantic. 

 

For my peak season forecast of 15/10/5, we need to get on the board soon. The reason to not completely pull the plug on higher end activity in terms of H and MH is two fold.

1) Despite the iron lid being over the basin, the underlying factors for a quality over quantity season still remain 

Simply put, the lack of instability in the eastern MDR to this extreme once again makes me believe that truly significant activity here is a lost cause.

However, just west, with a combination of lower shear (especially as the trade wind impact diminishes with climo) and historically high OHC and much more normal instability, I do think that a lot can happen through later September and October. 

2) Even though it's September 3, approximately 65-70% of historical activity in a given season still remains. 

The favorable conditions above should be able to take center stage as climatology abandons the tropical Atlantic and the focus for TC genesis becomes the western Atlantic and Caribbean. We'll see if they do. 

Areas of Interest

The basin is still hostile, but the chance of development is there for any one of these. The NHC notes three areas and I add a fourth. 

1. Caribbean Disturbance--60% 

This is the one we've been following for a while, and the signal has continued to waffle on the models. Unlike in the tropical Atlantic, this one has been firing more convection in the Caribbean (speaking to greater instability) but ran into the problem of shear and becoming more strung out as it quickly moved west.

It's just south of the island of Hispaniola right now, and while it barely has visible signs of life I would not count this one out yet. The ensemble signal is still modest, and with a more favorable environment likely as it gets into the western Caribbean or potentially Bay of Campeche, it's worth watching.  

 

2. Eastern Atlantic Wave--40%

All the way near the Cabo Verde Islands we have a strong wave that's a bit tied up in the currently further south ITCZ/monsoon trough. The model signal is modest but I need to see that something can develop this far east to believe it given the profound stability issues. 

3. Central Atlantic Wave--30%

The third area on my list has only really started grabbing attention in the last 24 hours, in large part because it has for now been able to maintain persistent convection. 

If you refer back to the SAL/water vapor image at the beginning of this post, you'll see that there's a lot of dry air lurking. I'm less bullish on this one as well because there's no evidence yet of robust low level vorticity. Yet at least. 

This wave only has a few days before conditions become even more hostile, but if it can keep convection firing that may be enough time for a quick spin up before getting ripped apart. Low odds at this time. 

4. East Coast Hybrid--10%

Finally, the lowest odds of development come from something not even tagged by the NHC. The signal for some type of low pressure to form off of an offshore boundary has been persistent for a week now, and the guidance continues to try to spin something up along the boundary in the coming days. If you look at the vorticity image above, it's easy to see why. 

The question however, is how far south does something develop, and can it attain tropical characteristics. Most indications are that it's more baroclinic than tropical or subtropical, which makes sense given the trough and fact that anything tropical trying to develop would get blasted by shear, but something hybrid may be worth keeping a casual eye on. 

 

 

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. There are three AOIs on the TWO that are between 12N and 15N, which are not north at all. Furthermore, they’ve been at 15N or further S since leaving Africa:

2. Nino 3.4 has been warmer than expected. But cold neutral isn’t typically hostile for activity. In addition, on a RONI basis we’re already near -0.7 (weak Niña).

3. Joe D’Aleo *fwiw* has recently been suspecting the current very active sun causing reduced instability in the atmosphere via a warming of the upper atmosphere. The August sunspot mean of 215 was the highest for August since 1991. There MAY be a partial correlation that puts a ceiling on ACE (i.e., perhaps making it very difficult to have a hyperactive season when sunspots are very high). The highest season’s ACE that has occurred with ASO sunspots of 175+ is the 149 of 1980 fwiw. With Aug at 215, there’s a high chance that ASO of 2024’s sunspots will be 175+:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

May be a combination of all those factors.  Up until recently the ITCZ / Monsoon trough has been displaced north.  Only in the last week or so has is drifted more southward.  Regardless, there are other factors at play because the western part of the basin has been quiet.  I think that issue is more related to the La Nina not being near as robust as was forecast = more unfavorable shear.

Better than half the season lies ahead so we'll see what happens going forward.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

May be a combination of all those factors.  Up until recently the ITCZ / Monsoon trough has been displaced north.  Only in the last week of so has is drifted more southward.  Regardless, there are other factors at play because the western part of the basin has been quiet.  I think that that issue does have to to due with the La Nina not being near as robust as was forecast.

Better than half the season lies ahead so we'll see what happens going forward.

1. The last week has been during peak and has had these three AOIs all at or S of 15N.

2. La Niña not being near as robust as forecasted isn’t normally hostile to development like El Niño typically is. Even if we call it neutral ENSO, that in itself isn’t typically hostile.

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. The last week has been during peak and has had these three AOIs all at or S of 15N.

2. La Niña not being near as robust as forecasted isn’t normally hostile to development like El Niño typically is. Even if we call it neutral ENSO, that in itself isn’t typically hostile.

Agree—we’ve seen anomalously low shear in the basin all season. Cool neutral hasn’t hurt. It’s far more complicated than anyone can fully grasp I think. Quietest since 1968 when a few months ago a top 5 season looked like a lock? That doesn’t happen easily. 

[GaWx]

The ICON (12Z) still has not backed down and thus is once again slowly developing a LLC in the NW Gulf off TX late this week.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET has a strong TS form well off the US E coast Wed night that then moves NE and hits Nova Scotia this weekend:

@WxWatcher007

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 34.8N  70.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2024   72  36.8N  68.9W     1010            34
    0000UTC 07.09.2024   84  39.2N  66.8W     1005            45
    1200UTC 07.09.2024   96  41.4N  64.9W      997            43
    0000UTC 08.09.2024  108  44.0N  63.3W      998            39
    1200UTC 08.09.2024  120  47.1N  62.3W     1003            32
    0000UTC 09.09.2024  132  49.4N  60.9W     1007            25
    1200UTC 09.09.2024  144              CEASED TRACKING