cptcatz Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 7 hours ago, GaWx said: It is important for folks to not hang onto longer range operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* the 12Z Euro has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240. Lol. "Don't look at long range operational runs!" "But check out this euro operational run 10 days out!" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 So CMC is Yucatán, GFS into Texas, Euro probably Louisiana, maybe Alabama coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Lol. "Don't look at long range operational runs!" "But check out this euro operational run 10 days out!" I didn’t say don’t look at them. You’re changing my words and posting a fake quote. I’m prefacing my Euro post by saying don’t hang onto it as in don’t bet on it. I, just like others, post what long range ops show for the record. And I said fwiw. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Good little spin off the coast of Miami. Visible on satellite, appears to be drifting north into a lower shear area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 11 hours ago, GaWx said: I didn’t say don’t look at them. You’re changing my words and posting a fake quote. I’m prefacing my Euro post by saying don’t hang onto it as in don’t bet on it. I, just like others, post what long range ops show for the record. And I said fwiw. Good morning GaWx. The key to understanding in your post is to look but not hang on the long range and the other key is *fwiw*. You can always look at a respected model showing a serious situation 10 days out. My understanding of the two keys puts the modeled result in perspective. Well done! Stay well, as always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 This wave is fading on models, at least until it reaches the western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: This wave is fading on models, at least until it reaches the western Caribbean. It’s not terribly surprising to me to see the signal pulse up and down as this tries to consolidate. Can it be convectively active enough to organize some before the Antilles? That’s an open question to me and has big track and potential intensity implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Radar looks like there’s a tighter low there, but proximity to land is an issue to say the least. Still, flooding rain potential along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Visible satellite animation suggests a circulation center just south of Galveston, though the trough is also sheared to the SE. https://col.st/eOQUB Buoy station 42002 has a pressure of 1012mb at 1740 UTC. Winds: WNW (290°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt Link to data: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml Update: at 2110 UTC this station has a pressure of 29.81" or 1009mb. A close 2nd for lowest pressure is Alice TX on land with 29.83". Part of the drop is from the semi-diurnal atmospheric tide, though the trend is clearly down in the graph shown below. Link to the 42002 station (including live data and panoramic camera image): https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies…. Kidding aside, this member is a slightly less intense version of the scenario that takes out parts of the TB region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 I know I keep repeating it but you can see how small changes in the next 48 hours leads to this waffling signal across guidance. The 12z GFS had very little consolidation and as a result the disturbed area can’t coalesce until the western Caribbean. 06z Monday 06z Sunday 18z has marginal consolidation with stronger vorticity—not an unreasonable possibility—and the result is much faster development in the Caribbean with obvious impacts on intensity and track. 06z Monday 06z Sunday This is why I think it’s incredibly hard to latch onto any particular evolution yet. A lot is still on the table. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Our AOI 5 hours ago vs our AOI now Convection is still popcorning and somewhat sparse, but the convective pattern is much more consolidated. Remains to see if that will improve short-term development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 9 hours ago, salbers said: Visible satellite animation suggests a circulation center just south of Galveston, though the trough is also sheared to the SE. https://col.st/eOQUB Buoy station 42002 has a pressure of 1012mb at 1740 UTC. Winds: WNW (290°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt Link to data: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml Update: at 2110 UTC this station has a pressure of 29.81" or 1009mb. A close 2nd for lowest pressure is Alice TX on land with 29.83". Part of the drop is from the semi-diurnal atmospheric tide, though the trend is clearly down in the graph shown below. Link to the 42002 station (including live data and panoramic camera image): https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002 If this disturbance in the NW GOM were to become a TC eventually, the ICON will deserve major kudos. A whole bunch of runs in a row, including the 0Z, have shown this. I don’t recall any other global having a TC from this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Despite the anemic appearance, the MDR disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles actually looks better organized this Sunday morning. The axis of the resultant wave that's developed out of the ITCZ breakdown is quickly folding around dominate 850-700 hPa vorticity. Shallow convection has aided this process. Granted, we need deep convection to take over now to allow this vorticity to ramp up at the surface to spawn TCG. But the stage has now been set. We do not have competing vorticies along the boundary of the old MT but more of a stand-alone easterly wave structure.If deeper convection begins to fire and wrap into fold, the wave will likely get labeled an official invest. Without competing centers of vorticity, it may not take long for development to initiate TCG in the ECARIB. We may even see this all go down on radar out of Barbados. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 9 hours ago, GaWx said: If this disturbance in the NW GOM were to become a TC eventually, the ICON will deserve major kudos. A whole bunch of runs in a row, including the 0Z, have shown this. I don’t recall any other global having a TC from this. True about the global models. The Spire Hi-res regional model that runs out to 6-days had such development in two consecutive runs on Friday. This is discussed in a video made on Friday: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-van-fleet-2365b556/recent-activity/all/ Meanwhile at buoy 42002 the pressure is still dropping (overall compared with yesterday) and SW winds picking up. Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.3 °F Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 13.6 kts Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 13.6 kts Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: Despite the anemic appearance, the MDR disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles actually looks better organized this Sunday morning. The axis of the resultant wave that's developed out of the ITCZ breakdown is quickly folding around dominate 850-700 hPa vorticity. Shallow convection has aided this process. Granted, we need deep convection to take over now to allow this vorticity to ramp up at the surface to spawn TCG. But the stage has now been set. We do not have competing vorticies along the boundary of the old MT but more of a stand-alone easterly wave structure. If deeper convection begins to fire and wrap into fold, the wave will likely get labeled an official invest. Without competing centers of vorticity, it may not take long for development to initiate TCG in the ECARIB. We may even see this all go down on radar out of Barbados. It’s having a hell of a time trying to generate convection so far today. Anemic may be generous. If it can’t get the engine started in the next 24h imo those less bullish model depictions through the Caribbean become much more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Circulation now more evident in the NW Gulf with visible satellite:https://col.st/2RN4G 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Perhaps if it can stay offshore for another day or so it could get the requisite convection to fire over the center. There’s deeper convection around but not where it needs to be for TC genesis. I guess we’ll see if some of the shallow stuff around the center can take off over time. Environment seems conducive especially if it drifts south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 The animation above indeed looks to show a southward drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 25 minutes ago, salbers said: Circulation now more evident in the NW Gulf with visible satellite:https://col.st/2RN4G Icon (12Z) has it again while CMC, GFS, and UKMET again don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 Yes the ICON has it drifting offshore toward the S for 8+ days:https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024090112&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=icon On satellite one storm is presently firing just W of the center. https://col.st/5slRG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 12z Euro CMC and GFS with…. not much… through 10 days. Gets us to mid Sept. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 1 hour ago, salbers said: Circulation now more evident in the NW Gulf with visible satellite:https://col.st/2RN4G There are a couple of circulations I can see another very small directly to the east somewhat hiding underneath some high clouds both are naked swirls pretty good NW shear. Actually, I am wondering if that very small circulation is the ingredient for a coastal low up along the East Coast by September 7th?? Every model has a coastal low or low coming up from the south next weekend. GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 It’s having a hell of a time trying to generate convection so far today. Anemic may be generous. If it can’t get the engine started in the next 24h imo those less bullish model depictions through the Caribbean become much more likely. Yeah, if deeper convection remains absent, dominant vorticity or an amplified wave remains nothing more than a feature of interest until environmental conditions improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 1 Share Posted September 1 6 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: There are a couple of circulations I can see another very small directly to the east somewhat hiding underneath some high clouds both are naked swirls pretty good NW shear. Actually, I am wondering if that very small circulation is the ingredient for a coastal low up along the East Coast by September 7th?? Every model has a coastal low or low coming up from the south next weekend. Indeed there could also be something of a circulation underneath all the convection south of New Orleans. Pressures are also lower there. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 I noticed that earlier too. UW-CIMSS has modest 700mb vorticity south of Louisiana. Less so at 850/925mb. The most robust low level circulation continues to be closest to the TX coast. That said, this is one of those deals where persistent convection could spin up a solid vortex. 700mb 850mb 925mb You can also see the elongated vorticity just east of the Antilles. Seems like that area has taken a step back from earlier genesis this evening but that’s still a fluid situation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 00z Euro/CMC/GFS = zzzzzzz for anything out in the Atlantic 00z GFS does try for some tropical luck into the W GOM Day 8 and on, but I find it hard to buy with the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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