2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Why?

 

Just joking around because you said you’re close to giving up. It really is way, way too early to “season cancel” imho.

[StantonParkHoya]

OP GFS can’t even cook up a fantasy storm in the LR

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Just joking around because you said you’re close to giving up. It really is way, way too early to “season cancel” imho.

You so sure?

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

You so sure?

 I’m sure that it is still too early to cancel the rest of the season due to uncertainty, but I’m not (and nobody else can possibly be) sure about how busy/quiet the rest of the season will be.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m sure that it is still too early to cancel the rest of the season due to uncertainty, but I’m not (and nobody else can possibly be) sure about how busy/quiet the rest of the season will be.

I was expecting an active ATLANTIC and not the Pacific 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

Any thoughts?

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

Any thoughts?

Tales from the computer asylum.
I’ll believe it when I see it. 

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

OP GFS can’t even cook up a fantasy storm in the LR

You know we’re going to have an active late season.

[LakeNormanStormin]

I suspect there will be a burst between now and mid-October.

Will it get me to my 21 tropical storm prediction? Unlikely.

[tiger_deF]

It’s hard to believe that during peak season, with a look like this in the Eastern Atlantic, that nothing will form from these two areas…

 

Interesting that the monsoonal look has been lessening a little, looks like two discrete disturbance areas rather than the mess of convection we’ve had recently.

[Floydbuster]

On 8/21/2024 at 12:09 AM, Floydbuster said:

 

Sticking to this. In 7 to 8 days, we will be a tracking a system that will be a major hurricane threat.

 

Time to commit hurricane seppuku. I was wrong, unless the wave leaving Africa or in the Central Atlantic becomes a significant major hurricane threat.

[Windspeed]

Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson break down the much-discussed quiet August period of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

Where are the hurricanes? The Atlantic’s late-August nap may lead into a stormy September

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson break down the much-discussed quiet August period of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

Where are the hurricanes? The Atlantic’s late-August nap may lead into a stormy September

 It sounds like they don’t know. Too many different things mentioned. They mentioned the Atlantic equatorial cooling but weren’t clear about that leading to quiet. I’m still suspicious of something not mentioned in this, the record warm middle latitudinal E and C Atlantic.

 We’ll see whether or not yesterday’s Euro weeklies are going to be right about waiting til late Sept for a more active than normal period. In the meantime I’m enjoying the reduced stress here near the coast thanks to the quiet. If it were to stay quiet for the rest of the season (highly doubtful), I won’t be complaining.

[WxWatcher007]

Honestly, I think the issues are identified and we’re all truly just in wait and see mode for if or when the lid comes off.

[jpbart]

I am of the opinion that this year the peak is in October, possibly late october.  Once the atmosphere cools a bit and a few things shift around it will kick off.  That ocean heat has to go somewhere.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, jpbart said:

I am of the opinion that this year the peak is in October, possibly late october.  Once the atmosphere cools a bit and a few things shift around it will kick off.  That ocean heat has to go somewhere.

 I’m not predicting that since it isn’t really predictable imho, but it could as the atmosphere cools as it has happened before. 1950 is a good example, with 8 NS forming then including 2 MH. 2020 had 3 MH in Oct, the most of any month that year. 2010 had 5 H that month.

[GaWx]

12Z runs for lemon:

1. ICON still has a very weak low that gets into the E Caribbean.  

2. Crazy Uncle has a H off the E coast of FL at 240 moving NNW after having nothing the prior two runs and a TS in the SE Bahamas three runs ago.

3. GFS has very little but 20% (6) GEFS have a H with 3 of those hitting or threatening the NE Caribbean.

4. UKMET: nothing classified as a TC through 180

5. Euro: following H7 vorticity one can trace a weak 240 hour W Car sfc low to this. The Control then goes from there into the NC Gulf as a strengthening TS and then recurving.

Edit: EPS has a good number of members that are similar to the Control implying there could be a threat to the US gulf coast ~9/9-11.

[CheeselandSkies]

[NorthHillsWx]

Beryl kinda feels like a couple seasons ago but a populated island took a direct hit from a 155 mph monster in July. I wonder how the recovery is going down there, those islands were leveled. Of course the news stopped caring the next day as it set its sites further west

[yoda]

 

 

[ldub23]

The American Storm on X: "Euro weeklies suggest a September to remember in the tropics https://t.co/PUnfUuDtL8" / X

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The American Storm on X: "Euro weeklies suggest a September to remember in the tropics https://t.co/PUnfUuDtL8" / X

A Sept. to remember which way though? 

[Windspeed]

A vigorous AEW should be exiting south of the Cabo Verdes by Wednesday. This disturbance is at a lower latitude and has intensified over the past 24 hours. The cyclonic spin is quite noticeable beyond a typical mesoscale feature and may already have an organized low. Based on its look and latitude, it has my attention. Note that the image was sourced from Meteosat and not GOES to get a better perspective of the wave at 5°W to avoid distortion.

This same AEW is now SSE of the Cabo Verdes and remains quite convectively active. No surprise that global ensemble suites are now picking it up. Regardless if we get development out of the western MDR from monsoonal trough breakdown, it does appear this new wave in the eastern MDR may have enough organization to develop. Future track may lead into the central Atlantic however. As of current time, the 7-day outlook from the NHC has yet to mention it. But if the wave continues to remain convectively active, it wouldn't surprise me to see it show up on the 2AM. As mentioned before, this AEW appears to have an embedded low at the surface. There is also a beefy 700 hPa easterly jet incoming from interior Africa, but the AEW may be able to stay out in front of this feature with a mid-level trough digging to the NNE. I like this system and I do think we will get TCG sometime over the weekend as environmental conditions should remain condusive.

[GaWx]

 Wow, this is bizarre! To review, 23 straight EC-AIFS runs from 6Z 8/19 through 18Z 8/24 had TCG ~9/2 near the Leewards. Then the next 15 had nothing (not even a weak sfc low) anywhere around there. Now all of the sudden, the 18Z 8/28 EC-AIFS has a weak sfc low (though not a TC) that forms on 9/2 near the central Lesser Antilles (so a little S of those 23 runs).

[Windspeed]

 Wow, this is bizarre! To review, 23 straight EC-AIFS runs from 6Z 8/19 through 18Z 8/24 had TCG ~9/2 near the Leewards. Then the next 15 had nothing (not even a weak sfc low) anywhere around there. Now all of the sudden, the 18Z 8/28 EC-AIFS has a weak sfc low (though not a TC) that forms on 9/2 near the central Lesser Antilles (so a little S of those 23 runs).

Though the western MDR looks pretty meh as far as the surface trough breakdown, both ensemble suites seem to like something to organize out of that feature. If something were to develop and move WNW, that wouldn't be ideal as both the ECMWF and GFS have a ULAC pivoting with the general upper flow to over the Bahamas by 96-120 hours. Barring land interaction with the GA, a hypothetical TC would have excellent upper support.

[MJO812]

18z gefs 

[GaWx]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is 
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it 
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles. 
The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward 
across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[GaWx]

0Z/6Z model consensus became much more aggressive with this, which jumped from 20% to 40% at 8AM per the above.

[GaWx]

Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall. If we were already in a moderate to strong La Niña (per RONI), I’d favor the Euro-AI more. But with it being only weak, I’m hesitant to bet on this far S track as weak Niña tend to have further N tracks. Of course, these are merely generalities and thus any one storm is still going to be all over the map as far as possible tracks.

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall. If we were already in a moderate to strong La Niña (per RONI), I’d favor the Euro-AI more. But with it being only weak, I’m hesitant to bet on this far S track as weak Niña tend to have further N tracks. Of course, these are merely generalities and thus any one storm is still going to be all over the map as far as possible tracks.

I don’t think ENSO will necessarily influence track here, certainly not as much as where a TC forms in the monsoon trough and how soon…if it happens at all. 

I’m kind of in “need to see more” mode before jumping on the lid is coming off train, but in the next week I think there are probably three areas to monitor.

1. Monsoon Trough in central Atlantic (40% NHC odds currently)

2. The eastern Atlantic tropical wave that @Windspeed has identified 

3. SE U.S./central Atlantic where a boundary may help spur genesis for something moving eastward and into the open Atlantic