GaWx Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Here it is--my peak season forecast. Enjoy. Very well thought out! Thanks for posting this. With my being in a vulnerable location, I hope you’re wrong with the very active peak or if not that people aren’t too badly impacted during the peak. I’d love for the peak to be like 2010. This is a minor point but I do want to point out that 2024 is 3rd highest of satellite era with 1980 also being higher as of today. The graph you show goes back only to 1991. That’s why it shows 2024 as 2nd highest. But since you mentioned 2nd highest of satellite era, I thought I should mention this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Very well thought out! Thanks for posting this. With my being in a vulnerable location, I hope you’re wrong with the very active peak or if not that people aren’t too badly impacted during the peak. I’d love for the peak to be like 2010. This is a minor point but I do want to point out that 2024 is 3rd highest of satellite era with 1980 also being higher as of today. The graph you show goes back only to 1991. That’s why it shows 2024 as 2nd highest. But since you mentioned 2nd highest of satellite era, I thought I should mention this. Will fix, thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 Weird to be a week out from the peak of the season and to not even have any Invests to discuss all the while we still have a La Nina. Odd indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: Weird to be a week out from the peak of the season and to not even have any Invests to discuss all the while we still have a La Nina. Odd indeed. Loading for the big show. Keeping those OHC nice and high. I’m not wish casting destruction, but ideally I would love to see a parade of majors come out of the MDR just north of the Caribbean and cruise between Bermuda and Obx. Lots of surf and little damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Loading for the big show. Keeping those OHC nice and high. I’m not wish casting destruction, but ideally I would love to see a parade of majors come out of the MDR just north of the Caribbean and cruise between Bermuda and Obx. Lots of surf and little damage. Same here tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 On 8/20/2024 at 9:53 PM, Kevin Reilly said: Explain Sandy then? October 22nd to November 2nd. My avatar by the way is the satellite of Hurricane Sandy. Don't forget about Ophelia as well. It's all about timing and later on tropical systems can be capture or run up along troughs. I said more likely, not that the anomaly could never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Will fix, thank you! 06 GFS agrees with your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 GFS starting to show the lid coming off now. The bears are going home soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Fwiw and for the record the 6Z Euro AIFS is the 13th run in a row (back to the 6Z 8/19 run) with a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Jova for bears, pack it up, the models are lighting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Jova for bears, pack it up, the models are lighting up I don't know about that. The GFS looks to have backed off at 12z from its aggressive 6Z look. The CMC looks about the same. The Icon has nothing. The EC at 0Z had nothing through 240h and the EPS had very little through 360 for a time period going into the peak season. This is NOT a season cancel response. As I mentioned in a previous post I am just taking it one day at a time with every day showing no major threats a day closer to the finish line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Long range GFS, whether active or not, has low statistical credibility. I prefer to look at GEFS/EPS for trends toward either more or less activity. Granted I did post about the late portion of the Euro-AIFS but that was because the last 13 runs have had a similar solution. Sort of its own 13 run ensemble in a sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 12Z Euro has no TC. But per last 13 Euro AIFS runs the crucial period for TCG may be centered around Sep 2nd, just beyond the 12Z Euro 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 The 12Z AI-Euro is the 14th run in a row with TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. It then recurves near 70W fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 I’d say the 18Z is about the most active GEFS for early Sep yet though not really that active for late Aug as there were a number of runs more active for then awhile back. **Corrected from 12Z to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 3 hours ago, GaWx said: I’d say the 18Z is about the most active GEFS for early Sep yet though not really that active for late Aug as there were a number of runs more active for then awhile back. **Corrected from 12Z to 18Z Barely anything. If anything laughable gefs looking run the last few slides. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 East and Central Pac on fire. We know what that usually means for our side… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 While we wait for the season to do something, I figure I'll share my newest video highlighting the top 10 hurricanes to hit Florida: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 17th run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 17th run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits Has the Euro-AIFS gotten any better? I feel like it was posted during the winter for possible storms in the NE and it kind of stunk. But maybe I am not remembering correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 8 minutes ago, FPizz said: Has the Euro-AIFS gotten any better? I feel like it was posted during the winter for possible storms in the NE and it kind of stunk. But maybe I am not remembering correctly. I don’t have much to go on though I did see this at another BB fwiw: “If I’m being honest, the only model I have much trust in right now is the AI-EURO. Mainly because it’s gotten every storm this season (was a bit slow with Debby but caught on) and caught on 10-14 days out.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 When do we press the “bust” button on the hyperactive season? My opinion is September 2. If models are completely dead then, it’s almost impossible to reach 20 storms (15 in the second week of September through the end of the season). This year, with the pre-season forecasts and recency bias, less than 20 named storms would be a bit of a bust, but 15 or less would me a MAJOR bust. It only takes one, but with the most aggressive pre season forecasts EVER, this seems like a year that the term BUST has a wider goal posts than normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: When do we press the “bust” button on the hyperactive season? My opinion is September 2. If models are completely dead then, it’s almost impossible to reach 20 storms (15 in the second week of September through the end of the season). This year, with the pre-season forecasts and recency bias, less than 20 named storms would be a bit of a bust, but 15 or less would me a MAJOR bust. It only takes one, but with the most aggressive pre season forecasts EVER, this seems like a year that the term BUST has a wider goal posts than normal Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion? Exactly. It’s easy to forget multiple naked swirls in mid Atlantic that receive names. It’s not easy to forget landfalling majors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Let’s say that the quality over quantity theme of the season continues though and we end up with something 18/11/5. Is that a bust in your opinion? Agreed. But there’s a long way to go to reach the 11/5 when we’re at 3/1 on September 2 with nothing on the horizon *if* that happens (per my post). That wasn’t a call or a forecast, just simply saying that’s when I’d have doubt on the crazy pre-season forecasts we were provided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Happy 32nd birthday, Andrew! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 The 6Z Euro-AIFS has a TC that originates from a TCG in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands ~Sept 2nd. This makes it the 21st run in a row with a TCG near the Leewards ~9/2. This goes all of the way back to the 6Z 8/19 run! You can still see all of these runs on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 On 7/19/2024 at 3:54 PM, Torch Tiger said: questioning my 20/11/6 call at this point. Thought better than 50/50 odds to be over 20 back in May, but may in fact be too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Agreed. But there’s a long way to go to reach the 11/5 when we’re at 3/1 on September 2 with nothing on the horizon *if* that happens (per my post). That wasn’t a call or a forecast, just simply saying that’s when I’d have doubt on the crazy pre-season forecasts we were provided Yeah I wasn’t trying to ask a leading question there. I do think the mid to high 20s NS forecasts will be too high at this point, but I do still believe low 20s is achievable given that I expect activity into November. It’s pretty weird to see so little out there right now, but we’ll just have to see what happens when the lid comes off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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