Floydbuster Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 I cannot believe it has been 20 years since Hurricane Charley struck Florida as a Cat 4 hurricane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: I cannot believe it has been 20 years since Hurricane Charley struck Florida as a Cat 4 hurricane. I’ll never forget being glued to my TV as it seemed that every advisory showed more intensification. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 17 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. Maybe the season will be more about quality and not quantity. The 5 named so far have all been "quality" systems. ACE supports that as well. Agree, not thinking we're going to see named storms get into the m/u 20's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I think it’s safe to say we won’t be reaching the Greeks this year. Need to be on the I or J storm by now and with nothing imminent on long range to indicate that happening in the next few weeks, I think we can say that ship has sailed unless the NHC starts naming pop up thunderstorms in the gulf 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 46 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. We are in peak season during a season that was supposed to be super duper and the hurricane season from Hell and the models cant even come up with a fantasy cane. Has to be too much dry air. I doubt the season will be rip roaring in Oct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 17 minutes ago, ldub23 said: We are in peak season during a season that was supposed to be super duper and the hurricane season from Hell and the models cant even come up with a fantasy cane. Has to be too much dry air. I doubt the season will be rip roaring in Oct. Tales from mumbai it will explode soon just you wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Tales from mumbai it will explode soon just you wait Perhaps. Euro shows very little out to 4 weeks but it does show the shift to a winterlike pattern. CSU and others forecasts of a big US landfall season seem unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. The ship sailed a few weeks ago on upper 20s+ NS predictions. But I feel that my 21 NS still has a shot though that’s likely near the high end of reasonable possibilities. I also think my 10H/5MH is very much still alive. Also, Aug 8th analogs suggested near 200 ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 hours ago, cptcatz said: I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. SAL has not abated to the degree it normally does by this time of year. Dry dusty air is entrenched in the MDR and across the Caribbean basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 25 minutes ago, Seminole said: SAL has not abated to the degree it normally does by this time of year. Dry dusty air is entrenched in the MDR and across the Caribbean basin. Probably seeing the last major burst of that now. There is good model support for the deserts moistening up, thanks to the MJO and other shenanigans. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 3 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Probably seeing the last major burst of that now. There is good model support for the deserts moistening up, thanks to the MJO and other shenanigans. There are beasts on the horizon. Even if we do not make the forecast number of storms (who cares about naked swirls in the mid Atlantic anyway) all it takes is a couple landfalling majors to make for a high impact memorable season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 18Z GEFS has a moderate signal for potential increased activity 15-25N, 50-70W on 8/29 from an AEW that leaves Africa ~8/24. PWAT is above avg and mean SLP is below avg. Shear is ~avg. SSTs are ~85F, which are ~2-3F warmer than longterm normal. 12Z EPS has something fairly similar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 15 Author Share Posted August 15 On 8/13/2024 at 3:43 PM, Seminole said: Some of the other models are picking up on this. Yucatan and Western GOM would be likely targets with that setup. +AO looks to continue at least through the end of August There is a window for recurve in there, but the GOM seems most at risk by potential systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 The 12Z GEFS and EPS continue to have moderate signals for renewed activity that originates from AEWs that emerge from Africa starting 8/23-4. This isn’t surprising considering the overall conditions, the very active early season, and that being during the early part of peak season. So, the break after Ernesto is liable to end up very short (too short if you ask me). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 The 12Z GEFS and EPS continue to have moderate signals for renewed activity that originates from AEWs that emerge from Africa starting 8/23-4. This isn’t surprising considering the overall conditions, the very active early season, and that being during the early part of peak season. So, the break after Ernesto is liable to end up very short (too short if you ask me).Agreed. Need I remind everyone that it is August 15th. Conditons are not yet prime. The proverbial switch generally flips by the last week of August (as per the climatological norm) for a more favorable MDR, regardless of whether the season is to finish as hyperactive or not. Yet, even though we've had easterly SAL plumes and periods of shear, we've had three hurricanes, two of those as landfalls (potentially three), with two reaching Cat 2. Beryl's early season rampage through the Caribbean may be an anomaly, but I'm fairly confident we'll be dealing with several big ACE producing CV long-trackers that will likely drive through the islands again unfortunately. One or two may become GOM threats. The ECONUS trough most likely will give way to re-extension of the SPH by September. To add, with near-record SSTs in place across the basin and the evolving La Niña, we may see a burst of late season activity as well. Certainly, October may be similar to September in pattern and continued late season MDR development we have seen in previous years. Obviously, the more typical WCARIB / CAG developments by November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 To continue the above discussion, here's an excellent thread by Kaylan Patel on upcoming developments with regards to the WAM, the MDR, and pattern placement by September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 The lack of numbers still doesn’t ease my concern. The ones that have formed have all found land. And one (beryl) was quite punishing. The models are showing a transition to more ridging as we get into peak season. The writing is still on the wall for a very damaging season. Season cancel at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 The lack of numbers still doesn’t ease my concern. The ones that have formed have all found land. And one (beryl) was quite punishing. The models are showing a transition to more ridging as we get into peak season. The writing is still on the wall for a very damaging season. Season cancel at your own risk This year has been more quality versus quantity so far. We're on the 'E' storm. Some of the more recent high number of named storm seasons also saw a lot of weaker TCs and ST systems that formed in the early months. This year we've only had two weak systems develop that did not become hurricanes. Even Chris probably would have become a BOC 'cane given more time over water. I suppose we may still see a plethora of central Atlantic systems form at higher latitudes during September and October besides the more potent southerly systems. But overall, I don't think this year would be remembered by busting on total number of named storms if indeed we do witness a significant number of intense hurricanes. Again, quality over quantity. 2017 was a horrible record season that did not hit 20 named storms. Only 17 formed that year, in fact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 22 minutes ago, Normandy said: The lack of numbers still doesn’t ease my concern. The ones that have formed have all found land. And one (beryl) was quite punishing. The models are showing a transition to more ridging as we get into peak season. The writing is still on the wall for a very damaging season. Season cancel at your own risk This year has been more quality versus quantity so far. We're on the 'E' storm. Some of the more recent high number of named storm seasons also saw a lot of weaker TCs and ST systems that formed in the early months. This year we've only had two weak systems develop that did not become hurricanes. Even Chris probably would have become a BOC 'cane given more time over water. I suppose we may still see a plethora of central Atlantic systems form at higher latitudes during September and October besides the more potent southerly systems. But overall, I don't think this year would be remembered by busting on total number of named storms if indeed we do witness a significant number of intense hurricanes. Again, quality over quantity. 2017 was a horrible record season that did not hit 20 named storms. Only 17 formed that year, in fact. 2017 is a great example. If everything aligns properly durning peak we could easily see several majors back to back. Very high impact high end majors given the OHC being in uncharted territory. I always think back to 92, a lack luster season, that produced a storm that if 20 miles further north would have changed this country forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 I discuss this in tonight's video update. I show the analog seasons and how most of the activity is at the tail end of August or later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 That's one hell of a hypothesis by Webb. Alarming, even: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 The 2024 season has been incredibly efficient. The first five named storms have made landfall. I'm not sure I can ever recall that occurring in previous seasons since tracking as a kid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 36 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The 2024 season has been incredibly efficient. The first five named storms have made landfall. I'm not sure I can ever recall that occurring in previous seasons since tracking as a kid. It has also more than doubled estimated damage losses from last season. 20 storms vs 5. Now that’s an efficiently damaging season thus far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 On 8/13/2024 at 5:52 PM, Floydbuster said: I cannot believe it has been 20 years since Hurricane Charley struck Florida as a Cat 4 hurricane. Charley Part II My first full year in North Carolina, Wilmington was my new home after leaving Maryland. Then a Cat 1, Charley was a direct hit with the eye passing overhead. The front half eye wall was solid and easily visible from my apartment while the right rear, fully open with lots of blue sky, was oddly enough the strongest part of the storm. I saved a radar image from the time: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 Precursor to possible Fran? (Fran is a nickname for Francine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 52 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Precursor to possible Fran? (Fran is a nickname for Francine) How is Fran not retired after ‘96? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: How is Fran not retired after ‘96? It's francine bhai AKA fran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 31 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: How is Fran not retired after ‘96? It is. And it was the wildest weather event of my life in Raleigh. Not sure we’ll ever see that again in our lifetime here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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