GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda 12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37 1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 10 minutes ago, Normandy said: I think it be that time fellas and ladies. This one needs a new thread Bro check out the NE thread on the tropics on this system Caging hard at the comments right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS does not inspire much confidence in a fish storm last two runs… After all the rain with a hurricane moving over Eastern NC a week later though I’m sure the eastern half of the state would be similar to an ocean! Up the chesapeake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 It appears Debby did cool waters somewhat significantly right at the coast, but should recover quickly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 GFS does not inspire much confidence in a fish storm last two runs… After all the rain with a hurricane moving over Eastern NC a week later though I’m sure the eastern half of the state would be similar to an ocean!If you're looking for pattern scenarios to favor higher ECONUS threats of a major hurricane landfall, the upcoming short-term cutoff trough is one of the patterns you would entertain in the coming week. Of course, such a pattern may still lead to a recurve of a hypothetical TC and no land interaction for the continental US. However, as opposed to a strong mid-level trough with jetstream, a cutoff opens the door for mischief in the steering layer. If a TC is positioned north of the GA and has gained enough longitude, reaching nearto the Bahamas, rebound of the SPH and a Canadian block NE of an ECONUS cuttoff could allow hypothetical TC to turn back NW into the Eastern Seaboard, or recurve from a position where the Carolinas and New England are under threat. We aren't looking at sure fire OTS jetstream-induced recurve here. Even if the hypothetical TC turns N, it may get caught under rebounding heights. Just be very skeptical with this setup on the ECENS of early suggestive OTS tracks until 1) we actually know how low in latitude the TC is going to track with respect to the ECARIB, and 2) timing of ECONUS cutoff trough. There will be a wide degree of any possible positions and tracking scenarios seven days out that may change drastically without a true longwave trough. Increased uncertainty around the fact there will be strong 500 hPa heights postion north of the cutoff that may expand east just in time for the hypothetical TC to have lifted near or just east of the Bahamas. The midrange models may not begin to handle that feature better until we are a few more days advanced. We have seen this occur in previous years. Dorian comes to mind. Nearly all modeling swung back drastically from an OTS to a sharp bend back west when the ensembles had a better grip on the ECAN dome.First and foremost, this system has a high chance of land interaction. So regardless of any potential ECONUS threat or non-threat, if a TC develops, it's likely to be at a low enough latitude to impact the Lesser Antilles and eventually one of the GA. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 JBF (Just Be Fiona) theory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 On 8/7/2024 at 9:03 AM, TheDreamTraveler said: It wouldn't be hurricane season without him cancelling the season before it even really starts. GFS shows 1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats 2 in AUG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada. Can't even post model runs jfl but the 12Z GFS makes a landfall in the Carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Here's what I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 10 minutes ago, ldub23 said: GFS shows 1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats 2 in AUG. Don't bother with ultra long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada. Close enough at 7-10 days out. Debby made a marked shift left compared to original tracks in less than 5 days. Worth watching. Nothing has even formed yet....when it does and where it does will have implications one way or the other. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out. Buddy boyo we've got a special thread for it now jfl 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 19 hours ago, ldub23 said: GFS shows 1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats 2 in AUG. What's your point? GFS didn't show 98L developing until three days ago (Aug 7, 12z) and it looks like that will likely be a mjor hurricane. GFS long range doesn't know how to forecast cyclogensis and means nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 These are the seasons with 25+ ACE through 8/8 along with their ACE through 8/8 and their 8/9+ ACE: 2024 41 ? 2008 40 106 2005 74 171 1980 40 109 1966 34 111 1934 28 51 1933 54 205 1926 47 183 1916 42 102 1899 25 126 1887 34 147 1886 36 130 -Avg ACE 8/9+ is ~~105 since 1950 but only ~70 1900-50. Longtime avg likely ~85 -These 11 seasons averaged 140, 55 above longtime 8/9+ avg -Of these only 1934’s 8/9+ was BN -3 were NN. 7 were AN (including 1916 since NN 8/9+ was only ~70 then). 6 were MAN (50+ AN for their time) -So, a fast start like 2024 favors a strong rest of season. These years suggest range of total ACE centered near 200 for the complete 2024! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ mb peak there though others are ~1018. There’s some lagging correlation between SOI and Atlantic activity/US landfalls. I fear that this in combo with the near record warm MDR and the very active early season leading indicator could mean a very active and dangerous late Aug and Sept. are on the way. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 11 Author Share Posted August 11 I posted this in the La Nina thread, but long range GFS ensembles are showing a very favorable pattern for westward moving tropical systems starting the last week of August. The N. American pattern evolution would favor more GOM or FL hurricane hits, as that central Canada ridge moves east with a -PNA. The central-N. Atlantic ridge of 594dm is strong on the mean. If we see African waves progress, they would likely move more westward under that ridge at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 11 Author Share Posted August 11 00z GFS long range has a ridge stretched from the US across the central-N. Atlantic. That's a big area of >594dm on the ensemble mean. I am watching this period, as enhanced La Nina conditions are projected to pick up, possibly strengthening the N. Pacific ridge, sustaining that strong ridge across North American to the Atlantic downstream. Waves off of Africa could have a favorable setup for long track, and westward moving storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 Though the official forecast calls for PTC5 to eventually reach Category 2 status in the WATL, I do feel confident now that this system will reach major hurricane intensity north of the Antilles on its trek north. That would give us three hurricanes prior to August 26th (climo. norm is two), including two majors by September 1st (climo. norm for one). I would be surprised if there isn't a third major prior to September 1st. Additionally, we should remain on pace to reach hyperactive numbers by season's end following PTC5/Ernesto's completion, which should put us over 50 by August 20th (climo. norm is September 6th). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6). Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep. I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th: As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42). If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67). One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th: As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42). If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 5th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67). One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations. Where do you get the ACE to date data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where do you get the ACE to date data? Aug 8th ACE back to 1851 was from this: Aug 20th ACE back to 1851 came from me by projecting ahead from the Aug 8th ACE table. I was so curious that it was well worth the several hours of time to do it. I estimated ACE for Aug 9-20 for all years by looking at TS+ activity during that period. Though time consuming, it wasn’t all that hard to do once you know the ACE formula. It was actually fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where do you get the ACE to date data? Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65 1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%) 2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%) 3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%) 4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%) 5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%) 1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where do you get the ACE to date data? One more thing: having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9. If we get 24 ACE during just 8/13-20, that would be a whopping 4 times the very active era’s 1991-2020 normal of only a mere 6 during that period! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 looks like a good spin at 10N, 43W. Surprised none of the models are picking up on development of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 2 hours ago, madwx said: looks like a good spin at 10N, 43W. Surprised none of the models are picking up on development of this Lot's of SAL in that region hindering development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 On 8/11/2024 at 3:59 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 00z GFS long range has a ridge stretched from the US across the central-N. Atlantic. That's a big area of >594dm on the ensemble mean. I am watching this period, as enhanced La Nina conditions are projected to pick up, possibly strengthening the N. Pacific ridge, sustaining that strong ridge across North American to the Atlantic downstream. Waves off of Africa could have a favorable setup for long track, and westward moving storms. Some of the other models are picking up on this. Yucatan and Western GOM would be likely targets with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 How tf did this come out so early https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL032024_Chris.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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