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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda

12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37
1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS does not inspire much confidence in a fish storm last two runs… After all the rain with a hurricane moving over Eastern NC a week later though I’m sure the eastern half of the state would be similar to an ocean!

 

Up the chesapeake?

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GFS does not inspire much confidence in a fish storm last two runs… After all the rain with a hurricane moving over Eastern NC a week later though I’m sure the eastern half of the state would be similar to an ocean!
If you're looking for pattern scenarios to favor higher ECONUS threats of a major hurricane landfall, the upcoming short-term cutoff trough is one of the patterns you would entertain in the coming week. Of course, such a pattern may still lead to a recurve of a hypothetical TC and no land interaction for the continental US. However, as opposed to a strong mid-level trough with jetstream, a cutoff opens the door for mischief in the steering layer. If a TC is positioned north of the GA and has gained enough longitude, reaching nearto the Bahamas, rebound of the SPH and a Canadian block NE of an ECONUS cuttoff could allow hypothetical TC to turn back NW into the Eastern Seaboard, or recurve from a position where the Carolinas and New England are under threat. We aren't looking at sure fire OTS jetstream-induced recurve here. Even if the hypothetical TC turns N, it may get caught under rebounding heights. Just be very skeptical with this setup on the ECENS of early suggestive OTS tracks until 1) we actually know how low in latitude the TC is going to track with respect to the ECARIB, and 2) timing of ECONUS cutoff trough. There will be a wide degree of any possible positions and tracking scenarios seven days out that may change drastically without a true longwave trough. Increased uncertainty around the fact there will be strong 500 hPa heights postion north of the cutoff that may expand east just in time for the hypothetical TC to have lifted near or just east of the Bahamas. The midrange models may not begin to handle that feature better until we are a few more days advanced. We have seen this occur in previous years. Dorian comes to mind. Nearly all modeling swung back drastically from an OTS to a sharp bend back west when the ensembles had a better grip on the ECAN dome.

First and foremost, this system has a high chance of land interaction. So regardless of any potential ECONUS threat or non-threat, if a TC develops, it's likely to be at a low enough latitude to impact the Lesser Antilles and eventually one of the GA.
724eb67734a83ae90a25e165c13115f6.jpg
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On 8/7/2024 at 9:03 AM, TheDreamTraveler said:

It wouldn't be hurricane season without him cancelling the season before it even really starts.

GFS shows  1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats  2 in AUG.

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6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

Close enough at 7-10 days out.  Debby made a marked shift left compared to original tracks in less than 5 days.  Worth watching.  Nothing has even formed yet....when it does and where it does will have implications one way or the other. 

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12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.

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10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.

 

Buddy boyo we've got a special thread for it now jfl

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19 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS shows  1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats  2 in AUG.

What's your point?  GFS didn't show 98L developing until three days ago (Aug 7, 12z) and it looks like that will likely be a mjor hurricane.  GFS long range doesn't know how to forecast cyclogensis and means nothing.

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 These are the seasons with 25+ ACE through 8/8 along with their ACE through 8/8 and their 8/9+ ACE:

2024 41 ?
2008 40 106
2005 74 171
1980 40 109
1966 34 111
1934 28 51
1933 54 205
1926 47 183
1916 42 102
1899 25 126
1887 34 147
1886 36 130

-Avg ACE 8/9+ is ~~105 since 1950 but only ~70 1900-50. Longtime avg likely ~85
-These 11 seasons averaged 140, 55 above longtime 8/9+ avg
-Of these only 1934’s 8/9+ was BN
-3 were NN. 7 were AN (including 1916 since NN 8/9+ was only ~70 then). 6 were MAN (50+ AN for their time)
-So, a fast start like 2024 favors a strong rest of season. These years suggest range of total ACE centered near 200 for the complete 2024!

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 The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ mb peak there though others are ~1018.

 There’s some lagging correlation between SOI and Atlantic activity/US landfalls. I fear that this in combo with the near record warm MDR and the very active early season leading indicator could mean a very active and dangerous  late Aug and Sept. are on the way.

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I posted this in the La Nina thread, but long range GFS ensembles are showing a very favorable pattern for westward moving tropical systems starting the last week of August. 

1f.gif

The N. American pattern evolution would favor more GOM or FL hurricane hits, as that central Canada ridge moves east with a -PNA. The central-N. Atlantic ridge of 594dm is strong on the mean. If we see African waves progress, they would likely move more westward under that ridge at this time.

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00z GFS long range has a ridge stretched from the US across the central-N. Atlantic. That's a big area of >594dm on the ensemble mean. 

1-31.gif

I am watching this period, as enhanced La Nina conditions are projected to pick up, possibly strengthening the N. Pacific ridge, sustaining that strong ridge across North American to the Atlantic downstream. Waves off of Africa could have a favorable setup for long track, and westward moving storms.

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Though the official forecast calls for PTC5 to eventually reach Category 2 status in the WATL, I do feel confident now that this system will reach major hurricane intensity north of the Antilles on its trek north. That would give us three hurricanes prior to August 26th (climo. norm is two), including two majors by September 1st (climo. norm for one). I would be surprised if there isn't a third major prior to September 1st. Additionally, we should remain on pace to reach hyperactive numbers by season's end following PTC5/Ernesto's completion, which should put us over 50 by August 20th (climo. norm is September 6th).

380281478967c7976c38ebcecd43d503.jpg

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 I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6).

 Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep.

 I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.

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 Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:

 As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).

 If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).

 One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

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1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:

 As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).

 If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 5th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).

 One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

Where do you get the ACE to date data? 

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where do you get the ACE to date data? 

Aug 8th ACE back to 1851 was from this:

IMG_0080.png.66da2c88d6114c168b0d4a77bf6236f9.png

 

 Aug 20th ACE back to 1851 came from me by projecting ahead from the Aug 8th ACE table. I was so curious that it was well worth the several hours of time to do it. I estimated ACE for Aug 9-20 for all years by looking at TS+ activity during that period. Though time consuming, it wasn’t all that hard to do once you know the ACE formula. It was actually fun!

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9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where do you get the ACE to date data? 

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65

1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%)
2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%)
3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%)
4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%)
5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%)

1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

 

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10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where do you get the ACE to date data? 

One more thing: having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9. If we get 24 ACE during just 8/13-20, that would be a whopping 4 times the very active era’s 1991-2020 normal of only a mere 6 during that period!

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On 8/11/2024 at 3:59 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

00z GFS long range has a ridge stretched from the US across the central-N. Atlantic. That's a big area of >594dm on the ensemble mean. 

1-31.gif

I am watching this period, as enhanced La Nina conditions are projected to pick up, possibly strengthening the N. Pacific ridge, sustaining that strong ridge across North American to the Atlantic downstream. Waves off of Africa could have a favorable setup for long track, and westward moving storms.

Some of the other models are picking up on this. Yucatan and Western GOM would be likely targets with that setup. 

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