WxWatcher007 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 I think it’s way too early to look at track specifics. The steering pattern broadly? Sure. We just saw how quickly things could change with Debby…and Beryl… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 maybe 3 tropical systems showing up on more then 1 model in the next week or 2.. interesting times ahead, I was starting to doubt we could have such an active season with all the insane dust levels, but still time will only tell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Icon at 180 has the storm . Looks like a recurve this run but way far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. The next couple of days of ensemble runs will be telling as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gfs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Simulated_Satellite&initcycle=determine&initfhour=192&initimdimx=676&initimdimy=750&initrange=34.452554744550:276.487619047584:13.722627737250:298.918095238012&initcx1=216&initcy1=218&initcx2=463&initcy2=492&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=211&initsoundy=213&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=Simulated_Satellite&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On&initunits=On&initlatlon=Off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 18z gfs is a fish but trough orientation is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 That would be one heck of a beast for the Turks and Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 18 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: That would be one heck of a beast for the Turks and Caicos. Severe impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 JFL up to 0/50 aready: Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while it approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31 ———————— Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31 ———————— Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 The mean of the 0Z GEFS is a bit further west than most of the recent runs implying a higher chance for a CONUS hit than those runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 0Z Euro: heading N at 240 at 40N, 67W aiming toward E ME, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 0Z EPS mean is E of the more threatening GEFS with very few in the Gulf and most members recurving E of the US. A nontrivial number still hit the E coast, however. So, a long way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 5 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: As suggested this morning on the 6z gfs. It’s way too early to say out to sea this early. I mean let’s face it the troughs coming into the east coast if they have made it this whole summer haven’t exactly been strong ask Debby who after a week!!! Has finally got the boot. This is however a typical dance every year along the East Coast so let’s see what happens at this point it’s all about timing and we are far from knowing that at this point and anyone who says they know is just guessing and or using climatology. I mean that below is pretty close. I know one model run but still worth a look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 21 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: As suggested this morning on the 6z gfs. It’s way too early to say out to sea this early. I mean let’s face it the troughs coming into the east coast if they have made it this whole summer haven’t exactly been strong ask Debby who after a week!!! Has finally got the boot. This is however a typical dance every year along the East Coast so let’s see what happens at this point it’s all about timing and we are far from knowing that at this point and anyone who says they know is just guessing and or using climatology. I mean that below is pretty close. I know one model run but still worth a look. Up da Chesapeake? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 7 hours ago, GaWx said: Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31 ———————— Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W) Buddy boyo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Up da Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 12Z ICON: recurve from SE Bahamas at 71-2W. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 I’m always rooting for a nearshore recurve, or a close shave a la Earl 2010. This way we get some excitement but don’t have to get FEMA involved lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 won't let me post the full image REEE This is the dry air right now https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 I think it be that time fellas and ladies. This one needs a new thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 GFS does not inspire much confidence in a fish storm last two runs… After all the rain with a hurricane moving over Eastern NC a week later though I’m sure the eastern half of the state would be similar to an ocean! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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