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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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2 maybe 3 tropical systems showing up on more then 1 model in the next week or 2.. interesting times ahead, I was starting to doubt we could have such an active season with all the insane dust levels, but still time will only tell. 

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The 12Z EPS mean is E of the 0Z though still with a few members in the Gulf and a few others at SE FL. Most of the rest recurve offshore the E US though a notable number still either hit or barely miss the NE US. The NE US may very well be the portion of the CONUS, if any, to watch the most for potential impact from this. The next couple of days of ensemble runs will be telling as it is still too early to have a good feel for this, especially with no LLC yet.

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JFL up to 0/50 aready:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:

A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while it approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31

————————

Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W)

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31

————————

Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W)


 

 

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 0Z EPS mean is E of the more threatening GEFS with very few in the Gulf and most members recurving E of the US. A nontrivial number still hit the E coast, however. So, a long way to go!

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5 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

As suggested this morning on the 6z gfs.  It’s way too early to say out to sea this early.  I mean let’s face it the troughs coming into the east coast if they have made it this whole summer haven’t exactly been strong ask Debby who after a week!!! Has finally got the boot. This is however a typical dance every year along the East Coast so let’s see what happens at this point it’s all about timing and we are far from knowing that at this point and anyone who says they know is just guessing and or using climatology. I mean that below is pretty close.  I know one model run but still worth a look. 
 

image.thumb.png.28ee83615ac03de3df63477b31eb8596.png

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21 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

As suggested this morning on the 6z gfs.  It’s way too early to say out to sea this early.  I mean let’s face it the troughs coming into the east coast if they have made it this whole summer haven’t exactly been strong ask Debby who after a week!!! Has finally got the boot. This is however a typical dance every year along the East Coast so let’s see what happens at this point it’s all about timing and we are far from knowing that at this point and anyone who says they know is just guessing and or using climatology. I mean that below is pretty close.  I know one model run but still worth a look. 
 

image.thumb.png.28ee83615ac03de3df63477b31eb8596.png

Up da Chesapeake?

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7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please keep this far away!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31

————————

Edit: 0Z GFS recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W)

Buddy boyo

 

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