WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: Classic ldub post of canceling the season in early August, never realizing that climatology ramps up in late August. And that nearly every factor is aligned for an extremely busy peak… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: First non GOM storm of the year? Who knows? That solution is well supported by the EPS, weakly supported by the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Who knows? That solution is well supported by the EPS, weakly supported by the GEFS. What strength are they talking right now and could this become a conus threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 5 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: What strength are they talking right now and could this become a conus threat? Way to early to know. You know I'm a math teacher, not a meteorologist. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Icon showing two MDR systems a week from now. Let's see if GFS and CMC follow suit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 12zcmc has a tropical looking system up the coast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 18 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 12zcmc has a tropical looking system up the way coast too Way offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way offshore It's a system none of them are closer to shore... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 You just want to see the TC genesis signal at this point, and it’s robust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 8 days out, the GFS has a very Debby-esque tropical wave entangled with the Greater Antilles from the wave EPS have been liking. Intensity and when it might recurve would be very much deterimed by whether it misses the islands to the N anf fishes or stays S of the G. Antilles and is more than a TD by the time it reaches the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 The 12Z Euro has an AEW that crosses Hispaniola and then leads to a TC forming in the SE Bahamas by 216 and that turns NNE aiming for W of Bermuda at 240 as it recurves due to a trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro has an AEW that crosses Hispaniola and then leads to a TC forming in the SE Bahamas by 216 and that turns NNE aiming for W of Bermuda at 240 as it recurves due to a trough. I have a question, regarding the GFS seeing TC genesis before most of its ensemble members do, as compared to the ECENS- is resolution an issue for the GEFS? Do you know if anyone has access to the control run? When the op and the ensemble are run at different resolutions, does that cause these issues. Can you see the GFS ensemble control member? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro has an AEW that crosses Hispaniola and then leads to a TC forming in the SE Bahamas by 216 and that turns NNE aiming for W of Bermuda at 240 as it recurves due to a trough. However, the much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent runs. The rest are either close or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 16 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I have a question, regarding the GFS seeing TC genesis before most of its ensemble members do, as compared to the ECENS- is resolution an issue for the GEFS? Do you know if anyone has access to the control run? When the op and the ensemble are run at different resolutions, does that cause these issues. Can you see the GFS ensemble control member? I can’t answer since I don’t know. I don’t see a particular GFS ens control run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Euro and most of the ECENS are developing the wave now near 40*. Not looking as 'fishy', many ensemble members get it into the Caribbean before a recurve. Most members that cross the G. Antilles aren't strong, but the rain and topography would cause issues. EDIT TO ADD: Hours 156 to 210. A week away, but a strong signal. Op GFS slower development gets it into the Gulf. Not as much ensemble support, but Im starting to suspect the combination to the constant refinement of the model and lower resolution may contribute to GEFS not supporting the op when they would if run at higher resolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Euro and most of the ECENS are developing the wave now near 40*. Not looking as 'fishy', many ensemble members get it into the Caribbean before a recurve. Most members that cross the G. Antilles aren't strong, but the rain and topography would cause issues. EDIT TO ADD: Hours 156 to 210. A week away, but a strong signal. Op GFS slower development gets it into the Gulf. Not as much ensemble support, but Im starting to suspect the combination to the constant refinement of the model and lower resolution may contribute to GEFS not supporting the op when they would if run at higher resolution. Anything stopping or inhibiting development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 42 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Euro and most of the ECENS are developing the wave now near 40*. Not looking as 'fishy', many ensemble members get it into the Caribbean before a recurve. Most members that cross the G. Antilles aren't strong, but the rain and topography would cause issues. EDIT TO ADD: Hours 156 to 210. A week away, but a strong signal. Op GFS slower development gets it into the Gulf. Not as much ensemble support, but Im starting to suspect the combination to the constant refinement of the model and lower resolution may contribute to GEFS not supporting the op when they would if run at higher resolution. Hmmm How strong do you think this might get + any analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 22 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Hmmm How strong do you think this might get + any analogs? I don't how to do an analog off a model run of a storm that hadn't developed yet. I told you I'm not a met, just a hobbyist. There are some analog guys for an actual storm in an actual position, but I'm not an expert on that, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I don't how to do an analog off a model run of a storm that hadn't developed yet. I told you I'm not a met, just a hobbyist. There are some analog guys for an actual storm in an actual position, but I'm not an expert on that, either. no problem man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 Anything stopping or inhibiting development?Land including mountan terrain, the shredder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 13 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Anything stopping or inhibiting development? Land including mountan terrain, the shredder which is subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 58 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Hmmm How strong do you think this might get + any analogs? If that High Pressure builds back in stronger than advertised, I could see a Hugo type track. Not saying it would have the intensity that Hugo did though (Cat 4). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 8 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said: If that High Pressure builds back in stronger than advertised, I could see a Hugo type track. Not saying it would have the intensity that Hugo did though (Cat 4). Sheeeit, but what intensity are you thinking? Also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted August 7 Share Posted August 7 20 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Sheeeit, but what intensity are you thinking? Also: Too early to tell really, but based on the pressure readings of that particular model run, I'd guess Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. How much land interaction it encounters in the islands could be the ultimate determinant of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 9 hours ago, LakeNormanStormin said: Too early to tell really, but based on the pressure readings of that particular model run, I'd guess Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. How much land interaction it encounters in the islands could be the ultimate determinant of that. Sheeeeeit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 8 Share Posted August 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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