2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

9 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

2004/05/1933 its  not  going to be.

y not

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I interact with ldub, though I have been warned he may be a troll.  He disappears from the board when there are systems in the Atlantic.  At least he no longer posts GFS Hour 384 (day 16)  surface maps showing either the surface ridge means no way a storm doesn't curve out to sea.  Haven't seen 384 hour maps from him in years.

 

Is he a downcaster?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Yes.  I think maybe he hopes always calling the Atlantic a graveyard will trigger the hurricane gods to send another Isabel his way.

[MattPetrulli]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Debby struggled all the way across just to have  convection. Still looks  very  dry and  loaded with sinking air.

 

 

2k posts of nothing but trolling and stupidity for years, I hope you get the help you need my brother.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Yes.  I think maybe he hopes always calling the Atlantic a graveyard will trigger the hurricane gods to send another Isabel his way.

Maybe he just doesn't want hurricanes to exist 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

No, he is a weenie.

 

I count 5 GEFS perturbations that could affect Texas or Louisiana from the Caribbean wave, and 1 Debby reenters the Gulf member.  Dismissing that as an oulier.  Not terrible odds, but under 20% isn't good odds, either.  EDIT TO ADD: I count 4 Canadian Global model ensemble members that put TCs into the Gulf.  4 of 20.  20%

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

16 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

No, he is a weenie.

 

I count 5 GEFS perturbations that could affect Texas or Louisiana from the Caribbean wave, and 1 Debby reenters the Gulf member.  Dismissing that as an oulier.  Not terrible odds, but under 20% isn't good odds, either.  EDIT TO ADD: I count 4 Canadian Global model ensemble members that put TCs into the Gulf.  4 of 20.  20%

 

I wouldn't count downtrending as a bust JFL. Conditions and steering will get better

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm not calling bust on the wave entering the Caribbean, just saying NHC 10/30 probs are about right.  More ensembles, not less, should see a system as time progresses to really have confidence on TC genesis.  Op Euro doesn't develop it either.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm not calling bust on the wave entering the Caribbean, just saying NHC 10/30 probs are about right.  More ensembles, not less, should see a system as time progresses to really have confidence on TC genesis.  Op Euro doesn't develop it either.

 

Euro has the wave as Gilma (not Ernesto) and very short-lived and weak

[Seminole]

One thing Debby has done is cool off North Florida. Much less humidity today and cooler. Feels almost like Mid September. The cooler weather and upwelling of Debby will knock the SST's in the eastern GOM down some. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

14 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Euro has the wave as Gilma (not Ernesto) and very short-lived and weak

That goes in the EPAC thread.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think the only problem with the Euro ensembles a few days ago on the current 10/30 lemon in the Caribbean is it had most of the members a smidge too far N. Now seems too close to S. America to develop, the few members that do develop run into Central America.

A fair number of ECENS like the wave just coming off Africa. Looks good on MIMIC-TPW, but not convectively active, with dry air ahead it will take a few days. Most would be OTS on day 10 ECENS, but lets see if it forms first GEFS has more than a few members seeing it also, and the MJO should be more favorable for the EATL wave than it was for the very unlikely to develop current lemon.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think the only problem with the Euro ensembles a few days ago on the current 10/30 lemon in the Caribbean is it had most of the members a smidge too far N. Now seems too close to S. America to develop, the few members that do develop run into Central America.

A fair number of ECENS like the wave just coming off Africa. Looks good on MIMIC-TPW, but not convectively active, with dry air ahead it will take a few days. Most would be OTS on day 10 ECENS, but lets see if it forms first GEFS has more than a few members seeing it also, and the MJO should be more favorable for the EATL wave than it was for the very unlikely to develop current lemon.

Do you think this may instead develop nearer to the Caribbean due to the dry air and the lifting air

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

CHB- the ensembles seem to think so.  Slower development than what the ECENS are suggesting increases the chance it doesn't go OTS.

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

CHB- the ensembles seem to think so.  Slower development than what the ECENS are suggesting increases the chance it doesn't go OTS.

 

Shit. So this could be a possible CONUS impact?

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

CHB- the ensembles seem to think so.  Slower development than what the ECENS are suggesting increases the chance it doesn't go OTS.

 

Which ensembles pls?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

ECENS or EPS means the 50 member ECMWF ensemble.  Each one with a minor computer generated adjustment to the initial conditions the Op Euro is run from.  A wide variety of outcomes suggests that the initial conditions (which are never perfect, measurement area and data the initialization program produces has interpolated conditions between data points.  The ECENS liked, than lost 9as did the US GFS operational and the Canadian Global operational model did.  Something changed to make the majority of the ECENS forecast a more S'ly track with more hostile conditions.

The wave in the EATL may do as the E. Caribbean lemon do, show more and more support then lose it as newer data comes in every 6 hours, or show more and more ensemble members show development and other modelling also sees a system ala Beryl.

 

New op GFS shows no development in the E Caribbean, few models or their ensembles show anything, it has become extremely unlikely anything forms.  GFS has the surrounding dry air keeping the E Atlantic wave from developing in the Caribbean.  If the GFS is correct that dry air will hinder development but not prevent it, it has a better chance to not recurve before land impacts.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

ECENS or EPS means the 50 member ECMWF ensemble.  Each one with a minor computer generated adjustment to the initial conditions the Op Euro is run from.  A wide variety of outcomes suggests that the initial conditions (which are never perfect, measurement area and data the initialization program produces has interpolated conditions between data points.  The ECENS liked, than lost 9as did the US GFS operational and the Canadian Global operational model did.  Something changed to make the majority of the ECENS forecast a more S'ly track with more hostile conditions.

The wave in the EATL may do as the E. Caribbean lemon do, show more and more support then lose it as newer data comes in every 6 hours, or show more and more ensemble members show development and other modelling also sees a system ala Beryl.

 

New op GFS shows no development in the E Caribbean, few models or their ensembles show anything, it has become extremely unlikely anything forms.  GFS has the surrounding dry air keeping the E Atlantic wave from developing in the Caribbean.  If the GFS is correct that dry air will hinder development but not prevent it, it has a better chance to not recurve before land impacts.

ngl I'm hella confused what you mean here. I guess:

Here's a more straightforward explanation:

1. ECENS/EPS: These are terms for a weather prediction system from Europe that uses 50 slightly different models to forecast weather. Each model starts with a slightly different version of the initial weather conditions.

2. Initial Conditions: The starting data for these models is never perfect because of gaps in measurements and estimations between data points.

3. Recent Changes: Initially, these models, along with U.S. and Canadian models, agreed on one forecast. However, something changed, and now most models predict a more southern path for the weather system with less favorable conditions for development.

4. Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (EATL): There's a weather disturbance in the eastern Atlantic that might behave like a recent system in the Caribbean. It might initially show signs of developing into a storm but then lose support as new data comes in. Alternatively, it might continue to develop, similar to how a previous storm, Beryl, formed.

5. GFS Model: The latest U.S. weather model (GFS) shows no development in the eastern Caribbean. Few other models predict any development either, making it very unlikely that a storm will form there.

6. Dry Air: The GFS model suggests that dry air around the eastern Atlantic wave is preventing it from developing into a storm in the Caribbean. If the GFS is correct, this dry air will keep hindering development but might not completely stop it. This gives the system a chance to continue moving without changing direction before possibly impacting land.

In summary, the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic currently has low chances of developing into a storm due to dry air and changing model predictions.

[ldub23]

If the  GFS is right and there  is  nothing to AUG22, which means  it will be at  least another week for a storm to develop CSU must really really think sept*Oct will be super  charged. Coming  down to 14/7/3 would  make  more sense. 10/5/2 the rest  of the way

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I generally trust the ECENS most for spotting future TS without to many false alarms.  The 10/30 lemon was a bust, but the ECENS were days ahead of the other models spotting Beryl.

 

Euro ensembles look to have a few more perturbations at 6Z than 0Z.  

 

*Almost* mp ,ode; support for the E Caribbean lemon, although one GEFS member does bring a storm from the far S Caribbean at a time consistent with the lemon and brings a strong TS/low end TS to Houston.  The GEFS and the GFS false alarm all the time systems that develop in the SW Caribbean from almost undistinguishable vorts travelling W through N South America.  It also false alarms TCs when the monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean. But I'd bet money on a TC around mid-month.  If it isn't OTS, it could be impactful.  Betting on no or only 1 storm(s) in the second half of August with a near record warm MDR iand a near neutral ENSO seems like a losing bet.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

43 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I generally trust the ECENS most for spotting future TS without to many false alarms.  The 10/30 lemon was a bust, but the ECENS were days ahead of the other models spotting Beryl.

 

Euro ensembles look to have a few more perturbations at 6Z than 0Z.  

 

*Almost* mp ,ode; support for the E Caribbean lemon, although one GEFS member does bring a storm from the far S Caribbean at a time consistent with the lemon and brings a strong TS/low end TS to Houston.  The GEFS and the GFS false alarm all the time systems that develop in the SW Caribbean from almost undistinguishable vorts travelling W through N South America.  It also false alarms TCs when the monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean. But I'd bet money on a TC around mid-month.  If it isn't OTS, it could be impactful.  Betting on no or only 1 storm(s) in the second half of August with a near record warm MDR iand a near neutral ENSO seems like a losing bet.

Is this it?

 

Sure, let's break this down into simpler terms:

1. Trust in Models: Ed, who likes snow and hurricanes and lives in Texas, usually trusts the European ensemble models (ECENS) for predicting tropical storms because they don't give too many false alarms.

2. Past Performance: Recently, a potential storm referred to as the "10/30 lemon" didn't develop as expected, but the ECENS were better at predicting the formation of Hurricane Beryl compared to other models.

3. Current Observations:

   • The European ensemble models (Euro ensembles) showed more variations (perturbations) in the latest forecast (6Z) compared to an earlier one (0Z).
   • There's almost no model support for the "E Caribbean lemon" (another potential storm), except one model (GEFS) predicts a storm forming in the southern Caribbean that might affect Houston as a tropical storm.

4. False Alarms: The GEFS and GFS models often incorrectly predict storms (false alarms) developing in the southwest Caribbean from weak weather systems moving west through northern South America. They also mistakenly predict tropical cyclones when the monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean.

5. Forecast for Mid-Month: Ed is betting that there will be a tropical cyclone (TC) around mid-month. He believes it won't go out to sea (OTS) and could impact land. He thinks expecting no storms or only one in the second half of August is unlikely because the main development region (MDR) is very warm, and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is nearly neutral, which usually supports storm formation.

In simple terms, Ed trusts the European models for hurricane predictions, believes a storm will form around mid-month, and thinks the conditions are right for more storms in the latter half of August

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Sheeeeit, look what CPC brought out

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Sheeeeit, look what CPC brought out

 

GTH Outlook Discussion (Atlantic Focus)

Last Updated: 08/06/24
Valid: 08/14/24 - 08/27/24

Key Points:

1. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Influence:

   • The MJO has become more organized, moving from the Maritime Continent to the East Pacific, aided by a strong Kelvin wave.
   • This wave has temporarily increased the chances for tropical storm formation in the East Pacific.

2. Current Atlantic Conditions:

   • Hurricane Debby: Formed in the Gulf of Mexico and hit Florida as a Category-1 hurricane. Now, it's moving along the eastern US, causing heavy rainfall.
   • Tropical Waves and Warm Waters: High sea surface temperatures and active tropical waves are setting the stage for potential storm formation.

3. Weeks 2-3 Forecast (08/14/24 - 08/27/24):

   • High Favorability for Storm Formation: Conditions are very favorable for tropical cyclones (hurricanes) in the Atlantic basin.
   • MJO Impact: The MJO will enhance storm development due to increased upper-level divergence over Africa and the Atlantic.
   • Warm Sea Temperatures: Above-normal sea temperatures will further support storm development.

4. Potential Storm Areas:

   • Caribbean to Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave might develop into a storm as it moves into the Gulf.
   • Main Development Region (MDR): Increased activity expected with potential formations near the northeast Lesser Antilles or closer to the Bahamas.
   • Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic.

5. Forecast Uncertainty:

   • Model Differences: ECMWF and GEFS models differ on where storms might form, leading to some uncertainty.
   • Track Predictions: Exact storm paths are unpredictable at this stage, depending on where they form and other weather influences.

6. Advisory:

   • Stay Updated: People in the eastern US, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean should monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts and track information once systems develop.

In summary, the next few weeks are likely to see increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. High sea temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions, influenced by the MJO, will contribute to potential storm formations, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf regions. Stay informed for the latest updates from official sources.

 

[ldub23]

• Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic.

Maintain high activity? I would  be  happy if the ATL  could  maintain any activity. 2 things stand  out  here for  me. Its a  perfect set  up for a  continued  conveyor  belt  of  dust  into the ATL. Also, we  have  now  shifted  back to the  pattern of the  last  3 years with a trof  in the  central ATL and low  pressure anchored  in the NW Atlantic. While CSU says we  have  above  normal odds  of  canes and  majors  hitting the  US the rest  of the season this  pattern says the NW Carib isnt  going to be favorable, the  coast  is  protected, and  landfalls  will be  sparse unless  the  pattern reverses.

 

 

 

For  some reason you  have to click twice  on the  itty  bitty picture

 

 

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

• Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic.

Maintain high activity? I would  be  happy if the ATL  could  maintain any activity. 2 things stand  out  here for  me. Its a  perfect set  up for a  continued  conveyor  belt  of  dust  into the ATL. Also, we  have  now  shifted  back to the  pattern of the  last  3 years with a trof  in the  central ATL and low  pressure anchored  in the NW Atlantic. While CSU says we  have  above  normal odds  of  canes and  majors  hitting the  US the rest  of the season this  pattern says the NW Carib isnt  going to be favorable, the  coast  is  protected, and  landfalls  will be  sparse unless  the  pattern reverses.

 

 

 

For  some reason you  have to click twice  on the  itty  bitty picture

 

 

 

Cope more.

[GaWx]

2024 has had 2 CONUS H landfalls by Aug 5th. Since 1851, there have been only 8 other seasons with 2+ by then with 7 of those 8 having exactly 2:

Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI

-2024: 2; ?; ?
-2020: 2; 4; -1.2
-2005: 2; 3; -0.0
-1959: 2; 1; -0.3
-1936: 2; 1; -0.3
-1934: 2; 1; -0.1
-1916: 2; 2; -1.4
-1909: 2; 3; -1.0
-1886: 4; 2; -0.8

-So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024
-All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1
-The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO
-The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO
-Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6)

*ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950

[cptcatz]

11 hours ago, ldub23 said:

• Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic.

Maintain high activity? I would  be  happy if the ATL  could  maintain any activity. 2 things stand  out  here for  me. Its a  perfect set  up for a  continued  conveyor  belt  of  dust  into the ATL. Also, we  have  now  shifted  back to the  pattern of the  last  3 years with a trof  in the  central ATL and low  pressure anchored  in the NW Atlantic. While CSU says we  have  above  normal odds  of  canes and  majors  hitting the  US the rest  of the season this  pattern says the NW Carib isnt  going to be favorable, the  coast  is  protected, and  landfalls  will be  sparse unless  the  pattern reverses.

 

 

 

For  some reason you  have to click twice  on the  itty  bitty picture

 

 

 

Classic ldub post of canceling the season in early August, never realizing that climatology ramps up in late August. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

18 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

ECENS or EPS means the 50 member ECMWF ensemble.  Each one with a minor computer generated adjustment to the initial conditions the Op Euro is run from.  A wide variety of outcomes suggests that the initial conditions (which are never perfect, measurement area and data the initialization program produces has interpolated conditions between data points.  The ECENS liked, than lost 9as did the US GFS operational and the Canadian Global operational model did.  Something changed to make the majority of the ECENS forecast a more S'ly track with more hostile conditions.

The wave in the EATL may do as the E. Caribbean lemon do, show more and more support then lose it as newer data comes in every 6 hours, or show more and more ensemble members show development and other modelling also sees a system ala Beryl.

 

New op GFS shows no development in the E Caribbean, few models or their ensembles show anything, it has become extremely unlikely anything forms.  GFS has the surrounding dry air keeping the E Atlantic wave from developing in the Caribbean.  If the GFS is correct that dry air will hinder development but not prevent it, it has a better chance to not recurve before land impacts.

First non GOM storm of the year?

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Classic ldub post of canceling the season in early August, never realizing that climatology ramps up in late August. 

It wouldn't be hurricane season without him cancelling the season before it even really starts.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

9 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

It wouldn't be hurricane season without him cancelling the season before it even really starts.

Utter cagefuel but entertaining nonetheless