CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 49 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: There are so many weenies in here it looks like an Oscar Meyer factory where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 GEFS finally picking up on the NHC lemon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 15 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GEFS finally picking up on the NHC lemon. Idek what’s gonna happen but I asked ChatGPT what they think will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 My wife hates buying on credit and I don't get paid until the 10th. By next weekend, if the 10/30 lemon is developing and heading anywhere between Veracruz and New Orleans, I suspect the generators will evaporate. In good news, new GFS says Debbie will literally save the Western Gulf from possible Ernesto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 37 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: My wife hates buying on credit and I don't get paid until the 10th. By next weekend, if the 10/30 lemon is developing and heading anywhere between Veracruz and New Orleans, I suspect the generators will evaporate. In good news, new GFS says Debbie will literally save the Western Gulf from possible Ernesto. Didn’t people say Debby would cause a weakness in the ridge forcing the possible new storm upwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Euro and Ukie What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro and Ukie What a disaster. good thing to deal with drought conditions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: My wife hates buying on credit and I don't get paid until the 10th. By next weekend, if the 10/30 lemon is developing and heading anywhere between Veracruz and New Orleans, I suspect the generators will evaporate. In good news, new GFS says Debbie will literally save the Western Gulf from possible Ernesto. Or ironically it might be named francine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 32 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Or ironically it might be named francine The wave entering the Caribbean, Euro ensembles backing off, the wave is too close to South America. The wave behind over the EATL, if ensembles are to believed now (they can change) thatt has fisg written all over it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The wave entering the Caribbean, Euro ensembles backing off, the wave is too close to South America. The wave behind over the EATL, if ensembles are to believed now (they can change) thatt has fisg written all over it. Jfl not all are backing off + steering is changing thanks to debby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 The wave entering the Caribbean, the models are backing off, development is becoming less likley, and the Euro wave after that is recurving before the islands with most of the ensemble members. Its all good, the Gulf can handle a week off from the hurricanes. I'm sure something will get into the Gulf this season, odds are low it is during the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The wave entering the Caribbean, the models are backing off, development is becoming less likley, and the Euro wave after that is recurving before the islands with most of the ensemble members. Its all good, the Gulf can handle a week off from the hurricanes. I'm sure something will get into the Gulf this season, odds are low it is during the next 2 weeks. Why the hell is it so unfavorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Still seeing gusts of 50-60 mph well inland. Likely just dropped back to TS strength. Wrong thread jfl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 17 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Why the hell is it so unfavorable It is further S, closer to South America. There is a heat low over Venezuela that slowly sinks back towards the Equator, In early August, it is still close enough to the Caribbean that it robs inflow, and helps produce the pressure gradient that means higher shear, regardless of the upper level flow. So all the models are backing off on development, and the few that do still develop it are mostly running it into Central America far enough S it never gets back over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It is further S, closer to South America. There is a heat low over Venezuela that slowly sinks back towards the Equator, In early August, it is still close enough to the Caribbean that it robs inflow, and helps produce the pressure gradient that means higher shear, regardless of the upper level flow. So all the models are backing off on development, and the few that do still develop it are mostly running it into Central America far enough S it never gets back over water. I just want to see rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Debby struggled all the way across just to have convection. Still looks very dry and loaded with sinking air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 55 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Debby struggled all the way across just to have convection. Still looks very dry and loaded with sinking air. SAL is still a real problem: https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 7 minutes ago, Seminole said: SAL is still a real problem: https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html Do you know roughly when it can bug off, it's giving me itchy ahh eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 37 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Do you know roughly when it can bug off, it's giving me itchy ahh eyes Normally it abates by mid August. This year the SAL has been ridiculously high and there is another good size plume of it entering the MDR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Debby struggled all the way across just to have convection. Still looks very dry and loaded with sinking air. I think the 12Z GFS is wrong, but check out about hour 180 or 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think the 12Z GFS is wrong, but check out about hour 180 or 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 42 minutes ago, Seminole said: Normally it abates by mid August. This year the SAL has been ridiculously high and there is another good size plume of it entering the MDR. I am prone to itchy ahh eyes every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 26 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I think the 12Z GFS is wrong, but check out about hour 180 or 204. I saw but it seems unlikely. 25 named storms? Lets say Aug has 2. We need 10 in sept and 10 in OCT. Aug has to be busy to get to 25 and nothing now says busy. Eric Webb says the MJO is Favorable now and wont be in Sept. The season so far is 2 tropical storms hitting the US with the only reason they got to a cat1 was interaction with land. We all saw how all the forecasters were saying how super favorable the tropics were this season. Im not seeing it. Once again the Mdr is choked with dust, dry as a desert, with sinking air added in. Beryl was a butterfly effect thing where somehow it managed to do the impossible but that isnt going to keep on happening. We arent even getting a sniff of anything developing in the subtropics this season. I have no idea what has to happen to get moisture into the Atlantic again but el nino, la nina, anything inbetween and we end up with a dead MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 25 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I saw but it seems unlikely. 25 named storms? Lets say Aug has 2. We need 10 in sept and 10 in OCT. Aug has to be busy to get to 25 and nothing now says busy. Eric Webb says the MJO is Favorable now and wont be in Sept. The season so far is 2 tropical storms hitting the US with the only reason they got to a cat1 was interaction with land. We all saw how all the forecasters were saying how super favorable the tropics were this season. Im not seeing it. Once again the Mdr is choked with dust, dry as a desert, with sinking air added in. Beryl was a butterfly effect thing where somehow it managed to do the impossible but that isnt going to keep on happening. We arent even getting a sniff of anything developing in the subtropics this season. I have no idea what has to happen to get moisture into the Atlantic again but el nino, la nina, anything inbetween and we end up with a dead MDR. Do you really think this season would be like 2022/2013 jfl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 23 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I saw but it seems unlikely. 25 named storms? Lets say Aug has 2. We need 10 in sept and 10 in OCT. Aug has to be busy to get to 25 and nothing now says busy. Eric Webb says the MJO is Favorable now and wont be in Sept. The season so far is 2 tropical storms hitting the US with the only reason they got to a cat1 was interaction with land. We all saw how all the forecasters were saying how super favorable the tropics were this season. Im not seeing it. Once again the Mdr is choked with dust, dry as a desert, with sinking air added in. Beryl was a butterfly effect thing where somehow it managed to do the impossible but that isnt going to keep on happening. We arent even getting a sniff of anything developing in the subtropics this season. I have no idea what has to happen to get moisture into the Atlantic again but el nino, la nina, anything inbetween and we end up with a dead MDR. A lot of posters don't think there'll be 2005/1935 number of storms. It is the rare storm that develops in the subtropics or even in the tropics that affects the US. 18 storms and an ACE of 200 would be quite active in my book. Two landfalling US hurricanes by August 5 feels active to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Do you really think this season would be like 2022/2013 jfl I interact with ldub, though I have been warned he may be a troll. He disappears from the board when there are systems in the Atlantic. At least he no longer posts GFS Hour 384 (day 16) surface maps showing either the surface ridge means no way a storm doesn't curve out to sea. Haven't seen 384 hour maps from him in years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Do you really think this season would be like 2022/2013 jfl 2004/05/1933 its not going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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