2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Normandy]

Still some uncertainty as there is disagreement between the big dogs.  GFS seems to be somewhat caving to the euro as it’s abandoned the idea of sending this west after the stall.  Euro still thinks this is an east coast brusher.  

[Seminole]

6Z GFS just got interesting. High end CAT 1 to low end CAT 2 hugging the panhandle shoreline for days and finally makes landfall in Mobile Bay. 

[cptcatz]

Convection is finally starting to bubble. I think the thing to watch here is where does it start to condense? Euro has consistently been showing the center to stay well north of the islands while GFS has consistently been showing the center going straight through the islands. Looking at this picture, I think the GFS may be correct...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Enough 'popcorn' storms, that don't last long but add water vapor to a dry environment, I think this thing will go.

 

I think Euro and ensembles will start shifting W toward other guidance, but I would not rule out an ECUSA threat.

 

Invest tag today?

[Windspeed]

Convection is finally starting to bubble. I think the thing to watch here is where does it start to condense? Euro has consistently been showing the center to stay well north of the islands while GFS has consistently been showing the center going straight through the islands. Looking at this picture, I think the GFS may be correct...

I know you didn't intend in your post that we already have a center, so I am just going to clarify here in my words for everyone else to understand. Keep in mind that we do not have a center yet. Based on satellite observation and TAFB surface analysis, the yet to be labeled invest is merely a broad tropical wave (the axis of which is cutting through the NE Leewards). Bubbling of convection has been occurring along the boundary where the moist fetch is established out of the ITCZ. However, strong convection is now beginning to consolidate within the northern wave axis. You may see this now in the IR animation I am including in this reply. Now that we have an envelope of convection, we'll have to closely watch where the most intense CBs get going. If that gains consistency in the northern axis, our disturbance may begin to fold north of the GA. Also, just because strong convection takes off this evening, the process may still take a few days to consolidate into a tighter surface low and vorticity maximum. But it is important to note that we have convection in the northern periphery of the tropical wave. So, the potential remains for either model suite to win out here on when and where TCG occurs. It might still be over the Antilles or it could be in more of a heading towards the Bahamas as the ECMWF OPs and EPS ensembles have repeatedly suggested.

Again, this wave is still broad. It's going to take some time for convection to concentrate and tighten this disturbance into a potential TC. I am still leaning towards the EPS, especially now that CBs are blossoming in the northern axis, and that looks more intense than the spotty stuff down in the NE Leewards.

Regardless of TCG, when and where, it really is something how modeling has flirted with the development of this behometh of a tropical wave that's spent the better part of a week devoid of convection. Precipitable water anomalies (PWATa) were always there near the 950-700 hPa level, the system just needed enough time for SAL-induced dry mid-levels to moderate with the attached southerly backside connection to the ITCZ and increasing lapse rate potential due to bathwater SSTs in the western MDR.

I do think this disturbance becomes a TC in 2-3 days. I still think it's too early to know if we'll see an ECONUS hit. We need to see how fast genesis occurs and how much initial latitude is gained versus the weakness that will open a door for poleward recurve. Everything is still on the table from EGOM to Carolinas to OTS.

[WxWatcher007]

100%

I still lean heavily with the EPS and more EC potential. Even before convection started it looked like the wave axis was a little north to allow for the well west GFS solutions, though E GOM should definitely follow this. Still very early to make definitive track or intensity statements but the environment in the western Atlantic looks quite favorable for intensification—which is why I think we’re seeing an uptick in intensity from the GFS op and EPS. Nothing crazy, but notable given the environmental factors ahead. 

[Seminole]

12Z GFS weaker and into the Apalachee Bay/Florida Nature Coast. Trending toward the Euro solution with this run. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: way west (TCG 150 miles S of LA tip and moves NNW into LA) and pretty weak:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 27.0N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2024 120 27.0N 89.3W 1011 31
0000UTC 06.08.2024 132 28.6N 90.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 06.08.2024 144 30.0N 90.5W 1011 30
0000UTC 07.08.2024 156 30.8N 91.0W 1009 27
1200UTC 07.08.2024 168 31.5N 90.7W 1010 28

[olafminesaw]

Lots of models have this meandering aimlessly near land. Could lead to some significant flooding somewhere 

[cptcatz]

Euro now caved to GFS, has it lingering over florida for a few days as a weak tropical storm. Looking forward to some good rain here in Boca Raton.

[WxWatcher007]

Very interesting model runs. It looks like the steering pattern more or less collapses if this gets into the Gulf. Just meanders as it waits to be picked up by a dominant steering feature. A lot to be resolved with this one. 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Euro now caved to GFS, has it lingering over florida for a few days as a weak tropical storm. Looking forward to some good rain here in Boca Raton.

I'm not so sure it caved,  play that whole run it then comes up the coast and gets stronger with it heading for long Island or nyc it would seem.  Believeable or likely happening?  1% chance 

 

But it's something to deft keep eyes on... cmc has had an up the coast setup as well jma too am extent to... but there's a lot of wacky variables at play. 

[wthrmn654]

18z icon shows it going into gulf, crosses florida, then comes out eastern ish side. Weak mess but juicy..

[wthrmn654]

Navgem, icon, euro and jma all show a fairly similar idea,  the cmc has also looked like the euro idea but has been wildly all over the place. 

Gfs has been a very stubborn child with the left turn... .

 

However, Going into the Florida area they all look to start the same roughly speaking... 

 

That's my opinion of what I see/ have seen with all various runs etc.. little to no predictably as of yet. 

[wthrmn654]

One thing to note, The euro AI model latest run gets it very close to the long Island area about 985mb, but it's run to run changes are 1000% dramatic. Highly unlikely

[Windspeed]

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned Elena. Interestingly, these patterned loops are popping up on several repeated runs of the global OPs. If this disturbance does wind up in the EGOM and does a loop over water instead of the Peninsula, it could open the door for some rather dramatic intensification and forecasting chaos for the coastline. It's a mitigating nightmare for evacuations. I've always wondered what another Elena would be like in recent years. At any rate, it's only worth mentioning due to that potential loop. I am certainly not suggesting that will occur. The loop or stall might occur over land. Or it might just be incorrectly modeled within the pattern this far out, and no stall or loop even resolves if a hypothetical TC even reaches that far west.

[Normandy]

Very interesting scenario being pointed by the models.  Lots of rain coming for someone as the storm gets stuck and trapped.  The euro even has it moving SSE across Florida and then up the east coast.  Might be time for a separate thread?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned Elena. Interestingly, these patterned loops are popping up on several repeated runs of the global OPs. If this disturbance does wind up in the EGOM and does a loop over water instead of the Peninsula, it could open the door for some rather dramatic intensification and forecasting chaos for the coastline. It's a mitigating nightmare for evacuations. I've always wondered what another Elena would be like in recent years. At any rate, it's only worth mentioning due to that potential loop. I am certainly not suggesting that will occur. The loop or stall might occur over land. Or it might just be incorrectly modeled within the pattern this far out, and no stall or loop even resolves if a hypothetical TC even reaches that far west.

From potential very slow movement I’d be more worried about extreme flooding from very heavy rainfall than dramatic intensification.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Very interesting scenario being pointed by the models.  Lots of rain coming for someone as the storm gets stuck and trapped.  The euro even has it moving SSE across Florida and then up the east coast.  Might be time for a separate thread?

 I’m in favor of you starting a new thread. This system has been dominating this general ATL tropics thread for several days.

 The 18Z EPS mean track shifted west a lot from the 12Z with the vast majority of tracks in the E half of the GOM with most pretty weak.

[Windspeed]

From potential very slow movement I’d be more worried about extreme flooding from very heavy rainfall than dramatic intensification.

Agreed; that's always a factor and much more likely regardless of intensity.

[Normandy]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m in favor of you starting a new thread. This system has been dominating this general ATL tropics thread for several days.

 The 18Z EPS mean track shifted west a lot from the 12Z with the vast majority of tracks in the E half of the GOM with most pretty weak.

Thanks for the opportunity brother but I’m not disciplined enough to keep the titles updated lol.  It’ll stay as a TD in the title thread throughout its life

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m in favor of you starting a new thread. This system has been dominating this general ATL tropics thread for several days.

 The 18Z EPS mean track shifted west a lot from the 12Z with the vast majority of tracks in the E half of the GOM with most pretty weak.

 

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

Thanks for the opportunity brother but I’m not disciplined enough to keep the titles updated lol.  It’ll stay as a TD in the title thread throughout its life

Yeah even though it’s not an invest it’s time for a thread as it’s an emerging “threat” to land. Do you want me to start it? 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Thanks for the opportunity brother but I’m not disciplined enough to keep the titles updated lol.  It’ll stay as a TD in the title thread throughout its life

You wouldn’t have to worry. The titles usually end up getting changed by others with the power to do so, especially when they get stronger.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yeah even though it’s not an invest it’s time for a thread as it’s an emerging “threat” to land. Do you want me to start it? 

 I’m in favor of you starting it since Normandy prefers not to. But I’m just one person. Regardless, I’m confident nobody would object.

[tiger_deF]

This wave is over 10 degrees of latitude high. Given the more potent northern and southern lobes in comparison to the weakening circulation, this is really a grab bag of scenarios. We could get formation North of the GA, south of the GA, complete disorganization until the Gulf, or absolutely nothing. Given how broad it is this reminds me of an Isias scenario of taking a while to tighten up.

[cptcatz]

In other news, GFS now has the wave currently in the central Atlantic hitting Galveston/Houston as a potential major hurricane. I feel like this hyperactive season is about to ramp up...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Remember how PTC 4 started out on modelling as just a few Euro ensemble members.  I'm not sure if the ensembles are all developing the same wave.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Remember how PTC 4 started out on modelling as just a few Euro ensemble members.  I'm not sure if the ensembles are all developing the same wave.

What do you mean?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

What do you mean?

PTC 4 appeared in the modeling with some Euro ensembles developing a storm and the number of ensembles developing a TC increased every week.  PTC 4 didn't develop as quickly as some of those ensembles suggested, but for MDR development, at least for PTC 4, some Euro ensemble members seeing it, with an increase in members, until other models caught on, is how the potential tropical development was first seen.

Cyclone 5, Invest 98L, maybe.  Maybe not.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

PTC 4 appeared in the modeling with some Euro ensembles developing a storm and the number of ensembles developing a TC increased every week.  PTC 4 didn't develop as quickly as some of those ensembles suggested, but for MDR development, at least for PTC 4, some Euro ensemble members seeing it, with an increase in members, until other models caught on, is how the potential tropical development was first seen.

Cyclone 5, Invest 98L, maybe.  Maybe not.

I mean this is worrisome ngl