Normandy Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: I disagree and feel you’re generalizing. I think it is a mix of high and low quality there just like is the case most anywhere. Also, an unknown number of members here are also members there with some actively posting at both. They must be doing something right being that they’ve been around for over 20 years. I think compared to this board the level of expertise and knowledgeable posters is just severely lacking over there. Additionally the moderators are absolutely childish and squash any and every inkling of disagreement. They treat posters like they are children which is ….. yea not for me. I was a longtime member there and when I found this place I never posted there again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 21 minutes ago, Normandy said: I think compared to this board the level of expertise and knowledgeable posters is just severely lacking over there. Additionally the moderators are absolutely childish and squash any and every inkling of disagreement. They treat posters like they are children which is ….. yea not for me. I was a longtime member there and when I found this place I never posted there again I disagree with the first part as I think both places have a good number of excellent posters. Also, keep in mind that there's overlap of membership as it isn't a pure them vs us situation. When you slam them, you're also slamming some here. But I agree with what I bolded as the moderation there is much stronger. Regardless, I think it is better to peacefully coexist than to slam each other. This isn't like Dems vs Repubs thank goodness. The tropical wx forum community is bigger than any one BB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 31 minutes ago, Normandy said: I think compared to this board the level of expertise and knowledgeable posters is just severely lacking over there. Additionally the moderators are absolutely childish and squash any and every inkling of disagreement. They treat posters like they are children which is ….. yea not for me. I was a longtime member there and when I found this place I never posted there again It seems to be that way when I just had a lurk over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 The 12Z EPS is still active and is fairly similar to the 0Z/6Z with some hitting the E coast but more staying just offshore and way less activity in the Gulf vs the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 2% chance a 978 mb hurricane hits Nantucket per Euro ensembles. We'd get a lot of New England forum posters to this thread if that verifies. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 2% chance a 978 mb hurricane hits Nantucket per Euro ensembles. We'd get a lot of New England forum posters to this thread if that verifies. Wait what the hell is this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Wait what the hell is this? These are at 360 and thus not for the same system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: These are at 360 and thus not for the same system. Oh okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 4 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Wait what the hell is this? The one in the west, if it moved to that position, would cause a huge rainband to drench south central Texas with Brobdingnagian amounts of efficient tropical rain and plunging our region into a super Uber Quagmire for all-time. We already have had 37 inches this year. NORMAL rainfall in Buda for 365 days is 30 inches. I just spent 3 hours today mowing 14 inch grasses near the pool. This is April-May, in late July! We'd all need Bayou airboats to get around in central Texas lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 30 minutes ago, Jebman said: The one in the west, if it moved to that position, would cause a huge rainband to drench south central Texas with Brobdingnagian amounts of efficient tropical rain and plunging our region into a super Uber Quagmire for all-time. We already have had 37 inches this year. NORMAL rainfall in Buda for 365 days is 30 inches. I just spent 3 hours today mowing 14 inch grasses near the pool. This is April-May, in late July! We'd all need Bayou airboats to get around in cI entral Texas lol. I think in regard to rain and tropical threats this year that this is just the beginning for SE Texas sorry to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 37 minutes ago, Jebman said: The one in the west, if it moved to that position, would cause a huge rainband to drench south central Texas with Brobdingnagian amounts of efficient tropical rain and plunging our region into a super Uber Quagmire for all-time. We already have had 37 inches this year. NORMAL rainfall in Buda for 365 days is 30 inches. I just spent 3 hours today mowing 14 inch grasses near the pool. This is April-May, in late July! We'd all need Bayou airboats to get around in central Texas lol. That sounds tough. I hope this doesn’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think in regard to rain and tropical threats this year that this is just the beginning for SE Texas sorry to say. Yep Houston tends to get hit by a lot of the tropical activity, particularly in the autumn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 I will tell you what is surprising. Us getting more rain, than some parts of N VA have had this year. We will see big rain events all across the South especially as we are now moving into August. We have also seen a lot more upper 70s dewpoints this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 For C MDR system: 0Z UKMET: large shift SW and much earlier TCG just N of C Cuba with TS near Key West then turns into FL Big Bend followed by NNE motion into SC/SE GA, NE into coastal SC and then ENE move to offshore CHS; TS nearly the entire track NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.8N 79.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 108 23.3N 79.9W 1007 37 0000UTC 04.08.2024 120 24.8N 81.8W 1004 39 1200UTC 04.08.2024 132 26.9N 83.2W 1003 37 0000UTC 05.08.2024 144 28.9N 83.0W 1003 33 1200UTC 05.08.2024 156 31.4N 82.5W 1008 36 0000UTC 06.08.2024 168 32.8N 79.4W 1006 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 For C MDR system: 1) 0Z GFS turns left into Galveston as a H! 2) 0Z CMC forms off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm 3) 0Z ICON similar track to CMC but faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: For C MDR system: 1) 0Z GFS turns left into Galveston as a H! 2) 0Z CMC forms off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm 3) 0Z ICON similar track to CMC but faster The evolution of this one still looks in line with thoughts a few days ago. Just need to watch for when convection develops (probably next few days) and whether the vorticity tightens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 0Z Euro has a weak low on E coast of FL that moves offshore NE FL and strengthens to 1006 (possible TD) off SC moving toward NC at 240. So, Euro is closer to CMC/ICON than UKMET and nothing like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower activity due to dry air aloft. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 The NHC must really be seeing this thing flaring as it nears the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 You really want to look at the 5 day to see the change but the environment is gradually moistening. There’s been lower level pooling in the wave so as it continues wrapping in moisture from the ITCZ that should help as the wave gets to warmer waters. The western Atlantic looks favorable but the wave is so large and dry aloft it’ll take time to organize. I still think the GFS is way too far west with this. It looks like a SE coast/recurve to me eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Not seeing the juice with this one. Interesting how the euro and GFS seem to be split in two camps with respect to ultimate track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z but weaker (TD vs TS) with trip from Key West vicinity into far E Gulf followed by turn into N FL; run ends with it near Jacksonville NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 25.0N 81.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 108 25.0N 81.8W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.08.2024 120 26.8N 83.2W 1007 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.0N 83.4W 1007 26 1200UTC 05.08.2024 144 29.2N 83.3W 1010 24 0000UTC 06.08.2024 156 30.2N 81.6W 1011 26 1200UTC 06.08.2024 168 30.0N 80.9W 1012 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air. Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 12Z Euro: forms at/near FL and turns NE/becomes a H; hits no land til Newfoundland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro: forms at/near FL and turns NE/becomes a H; hits no land til Newfoundland. Quite robust as it hooks northeast. Euro remains the most aggressive guidance clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Insurance rates for coastal Texas residents unable to get private wind storm damage insurance going up. At least we're not Florida, only a small portion of the state is vulnerable to tropical storms. https://abc13.com/post/texas-windstorm-insurance-association-states-insurer-homes-businesses/15121810/ EDIT TO ADD SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC: I have relatives in DFW, they're getting enough hail storms often enough their homeowners rates are increasing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 My neighbor who is a Wilmington PD in NC said they were briefed today about the storm and they are being told mid Tuesday-Thursday could be dicey for heavy winds and rain. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 1 hour ago, NCWX said: My neighbor who is a Wilmington PD in NC said they were briefed today about the storm and they are being told mid Tuesday-Thursday could be dicey for heavy winds and rain. Lol, do you think the Wilmington PD has access to models we don’t? 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 0Z UKMET: well W of 12Z run with it stalling in NE Gulf 50 miles S of Destin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.2N 85.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.08.2024 108 24.2N 85.0W 1009 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 120 25.9N 86.0W 1008 29 1200UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.1N 86.3W 1008 34 0000UTC 06.08.2024 144 28.8N 86.3W 1007 39 1200UTC 06.08.2024 156 29.5N 86.6W 1007 38 0000UTC 07.08.2024 168 29.7N 86.5W 1005 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 The 12Z JMA was also NE Gulf with landfall of weak low in FL panhandle. 0Z GFS a H in AL/W FL panhandle. So, 3 of 6 latest models’ runs in NE Gulf: UK, JMA, and GFS. My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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