2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

 For E Atlantic AEW, here are 0Z runs:

-CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5

-Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet

-ICON, UK, GFS: no TC

-GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z)

Edit: 0Z Euro ensemble: maybe not quite as active as prior 2 runs but still active and once again supports its operational with about all of the TCs hitting or nearby US E coast; good number of landfalls upper SC or NC with a few in the NE US

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 For E Atlantic AEW, here are 0Z runs:

-CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5

-Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet

-ICON, UK, GFS: no TC

-GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z)

Edit: 0Z Euro ensemble: maybe not quite as active as prior 2 runs but still active and once again supports its operational with about all of the TCs hitting or nearby US E coast; good number of landfalls upper SC or NC with a few in the NE US

Gfs having an epac bias rn I heard

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Gfs having an epac bias rn I heard

1. Whereas most models have EPAC activity, some with two TCs, the GFS has been about the strongest with these. Regardless, I don’t know that that’s wrong and don’t know whether or not that’s relevant to its lack of an Atlantic TC.

2. Whereas the 6Z GFS is still another without an Atlantic TC from the central MDR wave and just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (0Z GEFS had only 1 member (3%) with a TC), the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this more active GEFS is with still a very active EPAC.

 

[bigtenfan]

Looking at the sharp right turn of the NHC Cone it looks like the NHC is buying the Euro solution for now.

[GaWx]

6Z EPS 144 is as active, if not more active, vs the 0Z EPS 150 regarding the C MDR wave.

[GaWx]

The 12Z ICON is its first run with a TC from this. At 180 it has a 1005 mb low moving NW in the direction of the central US GOM coast.

[GaWx]

 Just like is the case for the 12Z ICON, the 12Z UKMET is the first run with a TC from the C MDR disturbance (may be due to it just coming in range since TCG isn’t til the end of the run). It is in the NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 25.0N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 168 25.0N 77.6W 1012 29

———————-

Edit: The 12Z GFS is the first GFS with a TC from this since yesterday’s 6Z (hits the FL panhandle). The 12Z CMC again has a TC from this in the E GOM that then hits the FL panhandle with a high end TS.

12Z before Euro: all 4 of the most followed globals have a TC from this with 3 of 4 in Gulf. UKMET is recurving in NW Bahamas.

———

Update: The 12Z Euro is much weaker than prior runs (maybe a TD at most/1007 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.

Despite the 12Z Euro being much weaker, the more reliable ensembles (12Z EPS) are still quite active and still are heavily favoring either near or offshore the US E coast with just a couple of members with a TC in the E GOM.

[GaWx]

 Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

I’m following a little more closely now. Lines up with my thought that we’d start to see activity in early August, though earlier than I expected.

The steering pattern—while long range—seems interesting. I think more for the Atlantic than the Gulf.

[Floydbuster]

One month from today I am guessing we will have a major hurricane threat for landmasses in the Western Atlantic.

[Kevin Reilly]

36 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

One month from today I am guessing we will have a major hurricane threat for landmasses in the Western Atlantic.

I agree.  I think the models showing a bit of something on August 1st to 6th is kind of a precursor or warning of what is to come.  Call it a false start the active period but the real active period begins around August 10th.  August 1st to 6th is an appetizer sort to say. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

One month from today I am guessing we will have a major hurricane threat for landmasses in the Western Atlantic.

1 month? I fear it may be earlier but you never know

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 7/26/2024 at 4:47 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

NHC has a 7 day lemon on the system the EPS have.  Bud is dissipating in the EPAC.

 

CFS bias adjusted MJO predicts MJO emerging into 8 and then 1 as August begins.  The other MJO forecasts on the CPC page, not so much.

 

Empirical MJO sees conditions becoming favorable in about 10 days.  I tend to think the Euro ensembles are a smidge premature.  Unless it gets significant support from the other reliable models and ensembles, I think the 20% lemon stays a lemon until dropped

If the Euro storm does develop, it will be developing before favorable upward motion gets to the Atlantic.  That would indicated a busy season.  I think @ldub23no more than 2 NS in August will bust badly.

[Diggiebot]

5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If the Euro storm does develop, it will be developing before favorable upward motion gets to the Atlantic.  That would indicated a busy season.  I think @ldub23no more than 2 NS in August will bust badly.

2 named storms in the first week maybe

[Windspeed]

If the Euro storm does develop, it will be developing before favorable upward motion gets to the Atlantic.  That would indicated a busy season.  I think [mention=14667]ldub23[/mention]no more than 2 NS in August will bust badly.

I'm not sure why anyone here would entertain their opinion.

At any rate, I like the ECMWF's right hook if TCG occurs north of the GA or near the Bahamas. Any position there does appear to time favorably with a weakness to allow poleward interaction with a westerly jet streak. Uncertainty will remain until late week/weekend with regards to any potential ECONUS interaction, though, until (if/when) genesis occurs and we have a better understanding of any potential turn. I kind of like 2004's Alex as a potential development and track analog. A similar tropical wave [in comparison to OP] moved north of the GA and positioned east of the Bahamas. Interaction between the disturbance and the surface trough occurred initiating TCG. I don't imagine any kind of late stall like 2005's Ophelia, another potential analog, though that system did hook out eventually. Obviously, it's too early to rule out Bahamas, Florida, or the Carolinas. If no TCG occurs pre-Bahamas or north of the GA, then the wave could slip into the GS straits or eastern GOM, missing the trough, which would obviously increase CONUS threat, though whether that would be anything organized or merely a tropical disturbance and rain is just a guess at this point. We've got the better part of a week to go before we'll have a better idea.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

30 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

2 named storms in the first week maybe

How strong do you think/location??

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

1 month? I fear it may be earlier but you never know

Well, most active season or hyperactive like this year is likely to be, have a significant hurricane threat around August 28th or so.

August 28, 2004 - Hurricane Frances becomes a Category 4 hurricane in the Central Atlantic headed west towards land

August 28, 2005 - Hurricane Katrina a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico headed for New Orleans area

August 28, 2008 - Hurricane Gustav organizing in the Caribbean, to become a Category 4 storm before striking Cuba 

August 28, 2012 - Hurricane Isaac lashing the Gulf Coast

August 28, 2017 - Hurricane Harvey flooding Texas after striking as a Category 4, Hurricane Irma forming in Eastern Atlantic

August 28, 2019 - Hurricane Dorian organizing north of Greater Antilles, headed towards Bahamas

August 28, 2020 - Hurricane Laura moving inland after striking Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane

August 28, 2021 - Hurricane Ida strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane before Gulf Coast landfall

August 28, 2023 - Hurricane Idalia organizing south of Cuba, eventually to be Category 3 hurricane for Western Florida

 

Last year, I took note of when we were approaching August 20th or so and I thought "I bet we get something notable the next ten days" and sure enough, we got Hurricane Idalia. 

[GaWx]

0Z GFS no TC/just weak Gulf low

0Z CMC/ICON TS into FL panhandle

0Z Euro 1006 mb TD/TS into NC OB

0Z UKMET: TS just off FL E coast that then turns NNE:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.8N 77.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 132 24.8N 77.9W 1009 42
0000UTC 04.08.2024 144 26.3N 79.5W 1005 47
1200UTC 04.08.2024 156 28.2N 80.2W 1006 33
0000UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.0N 79.6W 1006 34

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

A few 6Z GFS ensembles now see the Euro system.  About a third of the members.

[Seminole]

42 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A few 6Z GFS ensembles now see the Euro system.  About a third of the members.

That is a lot of SAL to navigate through. 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A few 6Z GFS ensembles now see the Euro system.  About a third of the members.

Ed,

 57 (a very experienced and respected tropical pro met in Houston area who tends to be a little conservative for those who don’t know) sounds unusually bullish for him with this just out (didn’t know if you saw this yet):

The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

[GaWx]

1) 12Z UKMET: still has a TD though not as strong as the 0Z’s TS that had skimmed the SE FL coast at Palm Beach. The new run delays TCG til it is 50 miles NE of Cape Canaveral. It then moves NE to 150 miles E of Amelia Island, FL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 29.0N  80.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 05.08.2024  156  29.0N  80.1W     1008            31
    1200UTC 05.08.2024  168  30.6N  79.0W     1008            34

————————-

2) 12Z ICON is weaker and further E than 0Z with a weak low near Tampa though it then moves NE to just offshore GA/SC and becomes a 1007 mb TD

3) 12Z GFS has strengthening very slow moving low central Gulf coast that becomes a 1002 mb TS there

4) 12Z CMC is further E and much weaker with just a weak low over SE FL/NW Bahamas. But then it gets stronger as it moves NE offshore NC and becomes a TS moving further OTS.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Ed,

 57 (a very experienced and respected tropical pro met in Houston area who tends to be a little conservative for those who don’t know) sounds unusually bullish for him with this just out (didn’t know if you saw this yet):

The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

Is that WXman57

[ldub23]

16 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Is that WXman57

Yes. He  isnt  one for  hype and  is rather  level headed so it  may mean more  coming from him. 57 is focusing  on the right area while the dunce  on TWC was focused on a tiny area  on visible that  if  it did develop was  just going to go into the south carib and  be shredded

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Is that WXman57

I think his name is Chris Hebert.  He is usually pretty good.  Only think about S2K is the good posts are buried in not so good posts.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think his name is Chris Hebert.  He is usually pretty good.  Only think about S2K is the good posts are buried in not so good posts.

 Just like for any BB, the quality of posts there vary heavily depending on the poster. Of course, what’s quality is somewhat subjective. They have a decent number of excellent non-met posters. I like to look at multiple BBs.

[Normandy]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think his name is Chris Hebert.  He is usually pretty good.  Only think about S2K is the good posts are buried in not so good posts.

You are doing the good work sir of sifting through the garbage to find the good stuff for us over here.  You should get chris / wxman57 to come over here.  That board is a wasteland
 

What’s weird about this disturbance is…..where is it?  I looked at satellite and there’s just jack shit out there.  Gonna be interesting to see this unfold because the models are clearly latching onto something.  Seems like a pattern for some kind of recurve near the east coast? 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro has a TD/TS (as strong as 1004-5 mb) off FL that then moves N and landfalls between Charleston and Georgetown on 8/6.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, Normandy said:

 That board is a wasteland

 I disagree and feel you’re generalizing. I think it is a mix of high and low quality there just like is the case most anywhere. Also, an unknown number of members here are also members there with some actively posting at both. They must be doing something right being that they’ve been around for over 20 years.

[jlauderdal]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I disagree and feel you’re generalizing. I think it is a mix of high and low quality there just like is the case most anywhere. Also, an unknown number of members here are also members there with some actively posting at both. They must be doing something right being that they’ve been around for over 20 years.

S2K has far more posters that have actually experienced multiple hurricanes than anyone here so as far as actual real life experience, its not a wasteland by any means. That said, there is a large volume of people that come and go and would be better served by sitting on the sidelines for a year at S2k... e.g the difference between ens and op doesnt seem to be sinking in with this system in particular.  The only consistency at this point is the EPS and that is tending towards a recurve od the se coast, will see, nhc isnt so sure at thispoint.