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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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The 12Z Euro has no closed surface low. It looks somewhat like the 12Z CMC with just a wave that reaches the W GOM at 240 hours. More importantly, let’s see how the 12Z EPS looks.

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SAL is a real problem right now in the Caribbean basin. By next week the Caribbean basin plume will be in the GOM and another large plume is moving toward the MDR and will migrate westwards. Until the SAL diminishes I think this current pattern holds at least another 2 weeks.    

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8 minutes ago, Seminole said:

SAL is a real problem right now in the Caribbean basin. By next week the Caribbean basin plume will be in the GOM and another large plume is moving toward the MDR and will migrate westwards. Until the SAL diminishes I think this current pattern holds at least another 2 weeks.    

The SAL is actually abating

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SAL is a real problem right now in the Caribbean basin. By next week the Caribbean basin plume will be in the GOM and another large plume is moving toward the MDR and will migrate westwards. Until the SAL diminishes I think this current pattern holds at least another 2 weeks.    
That's due to SPH placement. I mentioned last night that it's really the only thing suppressing TC development. Keeping the bottle corked, per se. Once the A-B begins to slightly weaken and gain latitude into a more typical position for ASO, given other factors in place, the fireworks should begin. There will always be a plume here or there, but once the ITCZ lifts, the MDR will become more favorable for CV waves.
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12zEuro and GFS show a weak disturbance developing off OBX tomorrow and hooking towards eastern LI/eastern New England Monday morning. 

Looks tropical, but very weak. ~1000 mb

Interesting because it's immediate term and otherwise dead out there (for now)...

GFS is boring evolution, and largely non-event. GEFS are more like EPS though...

EPS is a little interesting...

75a3ccb5-2bbc-4c98-8984-b3fa6ed41645.gif

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NHC has a 7 day lemon on the system the EPS have.  Bud is dissipating in the EPAC.

 

CFS bias adjusted MJO predicts MJO emerging into 8 and then 1 as August begins.  The other MJO forecasts on the CPC page, not so much.

 

Empirical MJO sees conditions becoming favorable in about 10 days.  I tend to think the Euro ensembles are a smidge premature.  Unless it gets significant support from the other reliable models and ensembles, I think the 20% lemon stays a lemon until dropped

EmpiricalMJO.gif

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If I am not mistaken, the Euro ensembles run at the same resolution as the op, 9 km.  The GFS ensembles run at half resolution.  That the op 6Z GFS keeps showing a somewhat similar outcome  to the Euro, with almost ensemble support, may be a resolution issue.  At the time range, a Eastern Gulf versus a SEUSA landfall is still up in the air.

 

The GFS develops the low later, which may be part of the difference between the GFS and the Euro

 

EDIT TO ADD:  I was starting to get worried that with only the Euro showing this for several days that this would be a spurious cyclone.  But Canadian coming on board.  Canadian is also a  E Gulf hit.  Earlier development going N makes sense.  No clue whether Euro or GFS/Canadian will be correct

GFS_12ZJul27_Hour150.png

Euro_0Z_Hour162.png

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