2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

 Yes, it is a most wonderful time of year, “season cancel” season. “Season not too active” calls right now are not at all backed by recent history, especially with Atlantic SSTs at or near a record high. Even during last year’s record Atlantic warmth, July was quiet in the deep tropics. We’re now in a climatologically slow period. It is supposed to be quiet in mid July with SAL often dominating. I picked 21/10/5 in the contest and still feel good about that prediction, which would mean a very active to hyperactive season.
 
 But OTOH it is going to be quite the challenge for those predicting (near) record #s of NS (upper 20s+) to be close. The largest # of NS on record forming 8/11+ is 21, set in 2020 and 2005. But even if a ridiculous # of NS were not to occur, a bad season would unfortunately still be likely.

[Maxwell03]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yes, it is a most wonderful time of year, “season cancel” season. “Season not too active” calls right now are not at all backed by recent history, especially with Atlantic SSTs at or near a record high. Even during last year’s record Atlantic warmth, July was quiet in the deep tropics. We’re now in a climatologically slow period. It is supposed to be quiet in mid July with SAL often dominating. I picked 21/10/5 in the contest and still feel good about that prediction, which would mean a very active to hyperactive season.
 
 But OTOH it is going to be quite the challenge for those predicting (near) record #s of NS (upper 20s+) to be close. The largest # of NS on record forming 8/11+ is 21, set in 2020 and 2005. But even if a ridiculous # of NS were not to occur, a bad season would unfortunately still be likely.

I just don't understand how we do this year after year after year. Hurricanes in the Atlantic form *primarily* between mid August and mid October. The dreaded 2013 excepted, every single year of late has picked up dramatically following the July/early Aug interseasonal lull...2017, 2019, 2022 for example. 

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, Maxwell03 said:

I just don't understand how we do this year after year after year. Hurricanes in the Atlantic form *primarily* between mid August and mid October. The dreaded 2013 excepted, every single year of late has picked up dramatically following the July/early Aug interseasonal lull...2017, 2019, 2022 for example. 

This is actually climatologically the slow part of Hurricane Season most years take a look there is a dip that shows up over the years from about July 5th to July 30th before it ramps up again.  This is the part of the season when we hear others say we may need to take the number of named storms down or don't let your guard down it only takes one landfalling Major Hurricane to make it a memorable Hurricane season.  

The facts are this in many years in July we typically see a robust Saharan Dust Layer and well that is exactly what we have in the wake of Category 5 Beryl which actually signaled the change and allowed the Saharan Dust to move south and west from Africa which is totally normal.  My guess is that the Atlantic wakes up again by August 10th or so looking at all global factors namely the uptick in activity in the Pacific which in time does have an impact on the Atlantic in time. 

[cptcatz]

Just want to respond to all the above posts saying "you people" canceling the season. All I'm saying is I don't see the high number of named storms verifying based on the activity so far. The seasons with a lot of named storms have a lot of slop in June and July taking up names which we don't have this season. I'm not at all saying things won't ramp up quickly and we could get a big ACE season.

The only person canceling this season is ldub which if you've been around here long enough you know that happens every single year from that person and you should just disregard every post that comes from him/her.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

22 hours ago, ldub23 said:

That  might  be too high. How  in the heck there was a  major  hurricane  in this pattern is rather amazing. Hyperactive is not  happening  now. Dr Knabb was talking  yesterday about an ABRUPT ramp up in early  Aug then posted a scare map of Aug 2004. 2 for  aug  seems a  better  bet than 8 at this  point. The really  cool thing  is  aug/sept 2004 had  much less favorable SST's  in the  east pac and ATL than now showing SST'S, especially in the ATL are not as meaningful as advertised. Dry stable  air  hasnt  been easy to dislodge for  years  now. If there was going to be an abrupt increase  in activity  in early aug  the  distrubances that  need to grow  would  be showing  up now and the  GFS thru aug  05 doesnt even show an abrupt  wave.

Caged hard. Man don’t you know it’s July and most seasons including hyperactive ones have a July lull because of SAL? 
you watch too much hypothetical content 

[Windspeed]

Just want to respond to all the above posts saying "you people" canceling the season. All I'm saying is I don't see the high number of named storms verifying based on the activity so far. The seasons with a lot of named storms have a lot of slop in June and July taking up names which we don't have this season. I'm not at all saying things won't ramp up quickly and we could get a big ACE season.
The only person canceling this season is ldub which if you've been around here long enough you know that happens every single year from that person and you should just disregard every post that comes from him/her.

Nobody is ragging on you. You have valid points that the numbers of NS in some of the higher-respected forecasts might be too high. 2024 could be a lot like 2017: Quality over quantity (i.e. hyperactive ACE values but a lower number of named TCs), which, perhaps, is an even worse outcome. As that means several long-duration / long-tracking TCs with multiple landfall threats. Big ACE producers verses frequent occurance of short duration events that stack up to lower ACE values. It's all guesswork at this point however.

I do think some of these numbers are too high as well. Not because 25+ NS isn't possible this year. It certainly is possible. It's just so rare that it's harder to forecast that versus just forecasting hyperactivity in general, even though that is also rare. 2020, a good example, got a lot of junk TCs that encountered unfavorable environments that merely didn't stack a lot of ACE, regardless if that years also had a few big producers. Then you have years like 2004 and 2017 that had lower numbers of NS, but numerous violent long-tracking hurricanes. Of course, we also have '33 and '05 that had both high numbers of NS (for their record-breaking seasons) and big ACE generators ('33 still holds the record there).

[WxWatcher007]

I still don’t see much reason to question a high NS year. I think we’re all in alignment on H/MH—there will be a lot. 

@GaWx I think 21+ is still doable, and I think unlike some other years we could certainly tack on a few November NS in the Caribbean given the extraordinary warmth and likely Nina conditions firmly in place by then. 

I think we’re back to NS developing that first week to ten days of August. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I still don’t see much reason to question a high NS year. I think we’re all in alignment on H/MH—there will be a lot. 

@GaWx I think 21+ is still doable, and I think unlike some other years we could certainly tack on a few November NS in the Caribbean given the extraordinary warmth and likely Nina conditions firmly in place by then. 

I think we’re back to NS developing that first week to ten days of August. 

 It depends on what you mean by “high NS”. I also think there will be a high # of NS with 21+ NS being doable as I picked 21 in the poll and feel good about that prediction. I consider 21 a very high #. But 28+ NS, which is near the record of 30 and has been predicted by some, is another story altogether imo with 21 NS the record high number for 8/11+. Let’s say we get #4 prior to 8/11. The record # of 21 8/11+ would mean 25.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I still don’t see much reason to question a high NS year. I think we’re all in alignment on H/MH—there will be a lot. 

@GaWx I think 21+ is still doable, and I think unlike some other years we could certainly tack on a few November NS in the Caribbean given the extraordinary warmth and likely Nina conditions firmly in place by then. 

I think we’re back to NS developing that first week to ten days of August. 

Glancing at the CFS weeklies, the shear goes from generally above normal across most of the MDR to neutral just after August 15.  MDR storms.  Heights rise (per Euro ensembles) over N. America the next 15 days, but even though the heights are above normal over the Central and Eastern Gulf, they are lower than surrounding areas, and the ensembles show a col (from the French word for mountain pass) between the ridge centers over the SW and the Atlantic ridge.  Or weak fronts and vort maxes could wind up stalled over the E Gulf over 30 to 31*C water.  That cold result in a quick spin up that could get a NS before mid-August, but so far, it looks slow to me until mid-August MDR wise.  Mid-August, if CFS is correct, there is a fairly quick transition from unfavorable to favorable upper motion as well.  W Atlantic shown, but the favorable motion spreads across the entire MDR.  Euro long range products show ACE going from well below normal (in a low ACE part of the season) towards normal by mid-August

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 7/21/2024 at 12:18 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Glancing at the CFS weeklies, the shear goes from generally above normal across most of the MDR to neutral just after August 15.  MDR storms.  Heights rise (per Euro ensembles) over N. America the next 15 days, but even though the heights are above normal over the Central and Eastern Gulf, they are lower than surrounding areas, and the ensembles show a col (from the French word for mountain pass) between the ridge centers over the SW and the Atlantic ridge.  Or weak fronts and vort maxes could wind up stalled over the E Gulf over 30 to 31*C water.  That cold result in a quick spin up that could get a NS before mid-August, but so far, it looks slow to me until mid-August MDR wise.  Mid-August, if CFS is correct, there is a fairly quick transition from unfavorable to favorable upper motion as well.  W Atlantic shown, but the favorable motion spreads across the entire MDR.  Euro long range products show ACE going from well below normal (in a low ACE part of the season) towards normal by mid-August

Euro weeklies finally picking up on an increase in tropical chances near mid-August.  Euro ACE goes from well below normal ACE to normal in early August to 140% normal ACE in mid-August, when normal ACE is starting to increase.  As posted by Dr. Hazelton, both GFS and Euro ensembles show shear in the MDR dropping to near or below normal in early August,

 

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1815553331131031956

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Two weeks out, but op Euro shows something trying to develop near/N of the Greater Antilles and has some ensemble support.  The GFS ensembles are not showing this.  But I'm expecting the first week of August to continue to be slow, so this is before I expect the switch to be thrown after about August 10.

 

CFS weeklies start throwing the switch in early August, above normal MDR shear goes to normal or slightly below normal, and the basin quickly changes from subsident upward motion to favorable upward upper air motion.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

34 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Two weeks out, but op Euro shows something trying to develop near/N of the Greater Antilles and has some ensemble support.  The GFS ensembles are not showing this.  But I'm expecting the first week of August to continue to be slow, so this is before I expect the switch to be thrown after about August 10.

 

CFS weeklies start throwing the switch in early August, above normal MDR shear goes to normal or slightly below normal, and the basin quickly changes from subsident upward motion to favorable upward upper air motion.

 

BROOTAL.

Imagine if this verified.

 

Also check this out:

 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

 

[ldub23]

11 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Isnt a  20-40% of at  least a depression between 07-13 aug  just  climatology? GFS now  up to 09aug with nothing.

[cptcatz]

Back to back Euro runs now showing development around South Florida first few days of August.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Isnt a  20-40% of at  least a depression between 07-13 aug  just  climatology? GFS now  up to 09aug with nothing.

I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on long range models

[ldub23]

3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on long range models

Perhaps you are right, but just  in case the GFS is right then its  going to take awhile after aug 09 for even a disturbance to develop that might  end  up getting a  name. Maybe tomorrow Knabbs abrupt turn to super favorable will happen and  it will show  3 storms. Just wait and see but  if the  GFS is right  it  will be well past  09aug  before the season gets going.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The seasonal models for August had way above average precip in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.. like 150-200%. Kind of reminds me of last Winter when the seasonal models kept showing cold on the east coast, just because of the El Nino. They might have been taking into account the warm Atlantic SSTs in the Spring and possible La Nina conditions and running that forward. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Many European ensembles show a spray of tropical lows heading for Florida or SEUSA in 10 days.  GFS ensembles have nothing.  Euro ensemble members have, IIRC, the same grid resolution as the op, the GFS ensembles don't.

[winter_warlock]

On 7/23/2024 at 5:53 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Two weeks out, but op Euro shows something trying to develop near/N of the Greater Antilles and has some ensemble support.  The GFS ensembles are not showing this.  But I'm expecting the first week of August to continue to be slow, so this is before I expect the switch to be thrown after about August 10.

 

CFS weeklies start throwing the switch in early August, above normal MDR shear goes to normal or slightly below normal, and the basin quickly changes from subsident upward motion to favorable upward upper air motion.

 If the shear  subsides  I thi k august will be very active,.. well compared to the tropical season so far

[Floydbuster]

We are getting super close to the flip of the switch and when it happens...watch out.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

We are getting super close to the flip of the switch and when it happens...watch out.

Hope it’s like 2010 trackwise but the prospects for that aren’t good. Plus we’ve already had a bad hit from Beryl. Besides danger to lives the last thing U.S. needs is huge amount of damage leading to insurers no longer being able to take risk of providing coverage. Could lead to a catastrophe with lack of insurance coverage.

 Destruction from Ian in 2022 was a sad/terrible thing to see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hope it’s like 2010 trackwise but the prospects for that aren’t good. Plus we’ve already had a bad hit from Beryl. Besides danger to lives the last thing U.S. needs is huge amount of damage leading to insurers no longer being able to take risk of providing coverage. Could lead to a catastrophe with lack of insurance coverage.

 Destruction from Ian in 2022 was a sad/terrible thing to see.

I don't see that happening...very lucrative and powerful industry. Rates would hike even more, sure.

[CheeselandSkies]

On 7/21/2024 at 7:44 AM, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Caged hard. Man don’t you know it’s July and most seasons including hyperactive ones have a July lull because of SAL? 
you watch too much hypothetical content 

@ldub23 is a known tropical troll and king weinerhead. He downcasted 2017 hard like three days before Harvey spun back up and did what it did to Texas.

[Floydbuster]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hope it’s like 2010 trackwise but the prospects for that aren’t good. Plus we’ve already had a bad hit from Beryl. Besides danger to lives the last thing U.S. needs is huge amount of damage leading to insurers no longer being able to take risk of providing coverage. Could lead to a catastrophe with lack of insurance coverage.

 Destruction from Ian in 2022 was a sad/terrible thing to see.

 

I have tracked enough of these things to know that you don't get a setup like this, with the odds of hyperactivity, and a Category 5 beast in early July just to have the rest of the season underperform. Its coming, big time. That switch is gonna flip so fast around August 18th to August 25th. 

[Normandy]

I do think overall numbers will underperform.  I think I called for 26 total but I’m bringing that down a bit.  I still think we get tons and tons of majors though

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

What the - 

[Jebman]

On 7/24/2024 at 9:50 PM, Floydbuster said:

We are getting super close to the flip of the switch and when it happens...watch out.

Yeah, I got a REAL REAL BAD feeling about this.

WE do NOT need a tropical dump of rain in central Texas in August. We are already so waterlogged.

Its a quagmire down here. We got sacked by Brobdingnagian amounts of rain, especially for this time of the year.

If this was a football game the quarterback would be in intensive care and out for at least the entire season.

[Windspeed]

This is a reminder that we had this microwave presentation in the Caribbean Sea, in the Atlantic, on.... July 2nd....

Better thank the current interseasonal behometh Azores-Bermuda ridge suppressive regime right now. That's the only thing holding in the cork. Every other climatological factor is a bloody damn powder keg.

This season is going to suck. And yes, that is intense hyperbolic acid coming from me to pour in your stiff drink. It's going to be very bad.....