2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[purduewx80]

6 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

What i don't understand about that map is the abnormally dry area just inland from the Gulf Coast, Are they saying that there will be little or no inland rainfall from all of the storms that that this map would indicate in the GOM especially the eastern GOM?

You’d have to look at the upper pattern it expects to be dominant, but the precip pattern implies recurving storms that are FL/East Coast hits, or storms get trapped under ridges and head west into Mexico. It isn’t unreasonable to think something like that might occur, but one storm could easily soak any of those areas, too. The latest CFSv2 monthlies are also showing inland areas from the Gulf being drier than normal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/10/2024 at 10:45 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

If you’re looking for a small wrench—here’s more detail on the SAL/stability potential. That said, even this doesn’t slow things down much.

 

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

[Windspeed]

The Caribbean Low-level Jet (CLLJ) is usually why the Caribbean, from east to west, is a graveyard in June and July. Especially if there is a TUTT in place over top. The CLLJ tends to relax by mid-to-late August, if not earlier, as the SPH cells gain a bit of latitude. Generally, the westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high propagate east and west across the basin in a tug of war with exiting CONUS trough and jetstream interaction. But this year, with a +AMO in place and cool neutral ENSO, we may see the Bermuda cell linger into the ECONUS coastal region, even if the eastward Azores extension waxes and wanes with digging central Atlantic troughs.

[cardinalland]

Wind shear in the Caribbean should persist through most of the remainder of this month

[GaWx]

http://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1811085088320278564?

 A 604 dm peaking 500 mb Bermuda high is progged on all of the models for tomorrow evening. This not only is one of the strongest Bermuda highs at 500 mb on record based on records back to 1950. It is THE strongest on record! The record strongest is 600 dm. Bermuda itself is progged to peak at 601-2, which would beat its record of 600 dm. It’s amazing what the warmest oceans on record are causing.

 The strongest on record for the entire Atlantic is 603 (just offshore Casablanca, Morocco). So, this looks to be the strongest on record for the entire Atlantic! The strongest on record for entire globe is 605.6 in the NPAC S of the Aleutians.

[Chinook]

Here is my loop of Hurricane Beryl (500mb) up to north Texas

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Hurricane_Beryl_Loop.html

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

Absolutely. Perhaps you get fewer short lived stuff in the eastern MDR, suppressing the NS count, but the truly vigorous waves that filter through are unlikely to have the kind of recurve paths like last year, and will have more favorable conditions close to home. 

[FPizz]

[Wannabehippie]

On 7/11/2024 at 11:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

I thought that the further out a storm develops in the Atlantic, the greater the chance it will re-curve before getting to the US. Unless the Bermuda high is in just the right place of course.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

I thought that the further out a storm develops in the Atlantic, the greater the chance it will re-curve before getting to the US. Unless the Bermuda high is in just the right place of course.

 

 In a very general sense (with wide variations depending on the specific atmospheric setup) a tropical cyclone (TC) in the MDR will tend to travel to the right of a tropical disturbance that doesn’t become a TC. So, slowing development  near the CV Islands tends to mean a further left/lower latitude track. Lower latitude in the MDR means lowered chance of a safe recurve vs if had been positioned at a higher lat. as a result of becoming a TC further east. 

 Same idea for weaker TC (lower latitude/lower chance for safe recurve) vs stronger TC (higher latitude/higher chance for safe recurve).

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In a very general sense (with wide variations depending on the specific atmospheric setup) a tropical cyclone (TC) in the MDR will tend to travel to the right of a tropical disturbance that doesn’t become a TC. So, slowing development  near the CV Islands tends to mean a further left/lower latitude track. Lower latitude in the MDR means lowered chance of a safe recurve vs if had been positioned at a higher lat. as a result of becoming a TC further east. 

 Same idea for weaker TC (lower latitude/lower chance for safe recurve) vs stronger TC (higher latitude/higher chance for safe recurve).

Where did Irma bomb out?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

41 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Where did Irma bomb out?

Near the Azores if I remember correctly. It seems like every year lately we set a new milestone

[Windspeed]

Where did Irma bomb out?

Near the Azores if I remember correctly. It seems like every year lately we set a new milestone

Irma was indeed a classic long-tracking CV hurricane, but even by comparison to the historical record, it took precedence. After TCG occurred 120 n mi WSW of São Vicente in the Cabo Verde Islands, it only took 48 hrs to become a major hurricane. But even with respect to its initial RI, perhaps what stands out most is its track. Irma gained a decent amount of lattitude due to a modest weakness in the eastward extension of the Bermuda-Azores SPH. The hurricane also weakened due to some interaction with SAL and cooler SSTs, undergoing some internal restructuring. However, Irma turned back WSW during its four-day trek across the MDR. Irma's position timed perfectly and, unfortunately, with respect to the Leewards, with restrengthening of the ridge and east-north-easterly flow of the 700-500 hPa steering layer. Above normal SSTs across the central and western MDR combined with exceedingly stacked/aligned atmospheric flow from the surface to 300 hPa level and favorable ULAC aloft enabled Irma to become, at that time, the most intense CV hurricane on record (surpassing Isabel) at 914 mb prior to slamming Barbuda and St. Martin. Beyond the more technical meteorological discussion, in general, when you have a CV hurricane losing latitude on its westward track through the MDR, it is bad news.

Note: Irma first reached 20N at 40W. After its turn WSW, it didn't reach that lattitude again until 66W, north of Puerto Rico.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If cyclones around the world are not as above average as the Atlantic since 1995, then that is something to watch, as you can say that we have already been hitting the peak part of the potential. I haven't done the research, but if the rest of the globe is say 125%, while the Atlantic is 200%, then I would have a hard time forecasting a record number of storms, and the max end ranges of CSU and NHC of 25 storms could be a little bit of a stretch, given that you would need absolutely perfect conditions for the majority of the season. 

With that being said, the central-ENSO subsurface looks very healthy in the direction of La Nina, with max anomalies of -5c to -6c today. I've found that this subsurface region has higher correlation to global impacts than surface SSTs, and with the surface taking time to cool, knowing that there is a stronger correlated region could be the difference between expecting 15-20 storms (Neutral) vs 20-25 storms (La Nina). Right now it looks like a Moderate La Nina in the subsurface, while Nino 3.4 is Neutral. 1995, 2005, 2020 were all years where the ENSO subsurface was much colder than the surface from the Summer through September. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just looking at CPC dynamic MJO from the various ensemble families, and it looks to stay quite weak but towards the maritime continent.  I have found in neutral or weak ENSO that EWP can sometimes be useful,  It would suggests a busy August.

[Windspeed]

It's slow in the tropics right now. But there's still great discussions going on about potential upcoming patterns and any that may lead to CONUS landfalls during ASO. As such, a really good one is ongoing right this minute between Hazelton and Webb...

[GaWx]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, though they could be off obviously, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11. 

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

 Opinions?
 

[MANDA]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, though they could be off obviously, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11. 

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

 Opinions?
 

Agree, some of the high end numbers of named storms out there may be in trouble.  ACE numbers maybe less in jeopardy if we get some more intense long trackers like Beryl but even so those high ACE numbers could be on shaky ground as well.

[Torch Tiger]

questioning my 20/11/6 call at this point.  Thought better than 50/50 odds to be over 20 back in May, but may in fact be too aggressive.

[Maxwell03]

I know it’s interesting from a scientific standpoint to capture the number of named storms in a preseason forecast, but we know from experience that hurricane season is quality over quantity. Recent years have certainly demonstrated that.
 

No doubt in my mind big ACE storms are coming, even if we don’t run down the full list of names this year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is a reason we only averaged 9 NS/yr in the Atlantic for the longest time. Add to it the fact that Africa has been super hot: 

And we don't have a lot of tropical convection right now. Some have suggested that the MJO becomes favorable in a few weeks, but there is a little bit of a model split. Atlantic SSTs and ENSO certainly still support a way above average season. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Week 4 Euro goes from well below normal ACE (during what is a low ACE part of the season) to only slightly below normal ACE.  Tropical storm probabilities, the WPAC is screaming, the Atlantic very slow through August 19.

Maybe 1933/2005/2020 doesn't happen this year.

[cptcatz]

On 7/10/2024 at 7:41 AM, cptcatz said:

I get the hyperactive season with big hurricanes in ASO but I just don't see how we get to 25 named storms with 3 in the books and a dead July on the horizon.  Going into August, 2005 had 7 named storms and 2020 had 9.  To get those big named storm numbers, you need a lot of June/July slop.

Sticking with what I said here.   I don't see getting past like 16-17 named storms.

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Sticking with what I said here.   I don't see getting past like 16-17 named storms.

That  might  be too high. How  in the heck there was a  major  hurricane  in this pattern is rather amazing. Hyperactive is not  happening  now. Dr Knabb was talking  yesterday about an ABRUPT ramp up in early  Aug then posted a scare map of Aug 2004. 2 for  aug  seems a  better  bet than 8 at this  point. The really  cool thing  is  aug/sept 2004 had  much less favorable SST's  in the  east pac and ATL than now showing SST'S, especially in the ATL are not as meaningful as advertised. Dry stable  air  hasnt  been easy to dislodge for  years  now. If there was going to be an abrupt increase  in activity  in early aug  the  distrubances that  need to grow  would  be showing  up now and the  GFS thru aug  05 doesnt even show an abrupt  wave.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

That  might  be too high. How  in the heck there was a  major  hurricane  in this pattern is rather amazing. Hyperactive is not  happening  now. Dr Knabb was talking  yesterday about an ABRUPT ramp up in early  Aug then posted a scare map of Aug 2004. 2 for  aug  seems a  better  bet than 8 at this  point. The really  cool thing  is  aug/sept 2004 had  much less favorable SST's  in the  east pac and ATL than now showing SST'S, especially in the ATL are not as meaningful as advertised. Dry stable  air  hasnt  been easy to dislodge for  years  now. If there was going to be an abrupt increase  in activity  in early aug  the  distrubances that  need to grow  would  be showing  up now and the  GFS thru aug  05 doesnt even show an abrupt  wave.

Found debby downer

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 hours ago, ldub23 said:

That  might  be too high. How  in the heck there was a  major  hurricane  in this pattern is rather amazing. Hyperactive is not  happening  now. Dr Knabb was talking  yesterday about an ABRUPT ramp up in early  Aug then posted a scare map of Aug 2004. 2 for  aug  seems a  better  bet than 8 at this  point. The really  cool thing  is  aug/sept 2004 had  much less favorable SST's  in the  east pac and ATL than now showing SST'S, especially in the ATL are not as meaningful as advertised. Dry stable  air  hasnt  been easy to dislodge for  years  now. If there was going to be an abrupt increase  in activity  in early aug  the  distrubances that  need to grow  would  be showing  up now and the  GFS thru aug  05 doesnt even show an abrupt  wave.

I'd bet a fair amount of money even with the Atlantic waiting until what now looks like mid-August, it will produce 3 or more storms.  Just climatology, even with a generally unfavorable upward motion regime, a warmer than usual ocean and near normal shear should generate storms.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'd bet a fair amount of money even with the Atlantic waiting until what now looks like mid-August, it will produce 3 or more storms.  Just climatology, even with a generally unfavorable upward motion regime, a warmer than usual ocean and near normal shear should generate storms.

Yep, analogs of seasons with no Aug NS prior to Aug 11th still suggest 3-6 Aug NS. 2022 had none but that was an extreme.

[Tezeta]

Something bad is going to happen

[Windspeed]

Good lord. Unfortunately, they're dead wrong and doing what they always do. Their annual moaning and complaining posts because it's been more than 12 days without a major hurricane. It's nothing to do with climatology or interseasonal states. It's not even a lack of understanding about patterns. They're just trolling.

Back to reality. Scroll up and read. This slow period and the preceding period of activity has been forecasted well. The reasons Beryl occurred when it did have been thoroughly discussed. Even still, Beryl struggled through portions of the central and NW Caribbean due to, yep, climatological factors. Unfortunately, those factors weren't in place in the western MDR and eastern Caribbean, hince we've a devastated Grenadines, and it's not even August yet. Not to mention, we have a $6+ billion CONUS landfall already.

Enjoy the quiet interseasonal period, folks. Mid-August through October is going to be crazy. People will be complaining about not being able to keep up with all the chaos.

[TheDreamTraveler]

46 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Good lord. Unfortunately, they're dead wrong and doing what they always do. Their annual moaning and complaining posts because it's been more than 12 days without a major hurricane. It's nothing to do with climatology or interseasonal states. It's not even a lack of understanding about patterns. They're just trolling.

Back to reality. Scroll up and read. This slow period and the preceding period of activity has been forecasted well. The reasons Beryl occurred when it did have been thoroughly discussed. Even still, Beryl struggled through portions of the central and NW Caribbean due to, yep, climatological factors. Unfortunately, those factors weren't in place in the western MDR and eastern Caribbean, hince we've a devastated Grenadines, it's not even August yet. Not to mention, we have a $6+ billion CONUS landfall now.

Enjoy the quiet interseasonal period, folks. Mid-August through October is going to be crazy folks. People will be complaining about not being able to keep up with all the chaos.

These are the same type of people that declare a season dead by the end of July when most storms don't even start forming until mid-late August. The season is not supposed to be super active right now even in a very hyperactive season. They look at the models showing nothing for weeks and declare it dead every single year. It's like people forget seasons can ramp up massively in August.