2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Idalia is that you?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

16 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Is it because Beryl sucked out all the hot water 

Ugh. A small, rapidly moving hurricane in the Caribbean…. It maybe used .0001 of the potential energy stored. It’s very difficult to explain in words so I’m not going to go there. If you understand, you understand.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Windspeed]

Thanks to Beryl, the Atlantic will have an ACE of at least 30-35 heading into ASO. The basin would only need to produce 130 more points, give or take, during the heart the season to satisfy the definition of hyperactive (ACE > 175% of the median). Not guaranteed, mind you, but it would take an Atlanta Falcon's Superbowl type epic failure to not reach 160 ACE now, and the kind of forecast bust to perhaps make a climatologist reconsider their career path.

Edit: Updating the numbers here a bit. The old median was 96.7 (1951-2020), which I think is still used by NOAA and some other climate agencies. However, CSU's Tropical Climatological Division has changed the median range from 1991 to 2020. Obviously, that removed nearly two decades of pre-satellite era datum. Furthermore, the last three decades have been more active regardless of any satellite-influenced bias. At any rate, the new median is 122.5, which is much higher. CSU has real-time monitoring and has pretty much become the defacto tropical climatology center. I can't see why their index wouldn't be reputable. 170% of 122.5 would target a 208.25 ACE value for a hyperactive season.

[Normandy]

What’s funny is beryl isn’t even done.  This season could have four or five beryls potentially (long track majors)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looking at the future, and not the past this time, 2024 will be analoged for warm waters and high OHC, just like 2005 is to this year. Beryl maintaining Cat 4+ for 84 hours is another analogous event for seasonal potentially favorable conditions for Atlantic hurricane seasons rolled forward. With a likely increase in El Nino's vs La Nina's in the next few decades and AMO not always being super positive (history says it runs in cycles but the general mid latitude warming across the globe is pretty significant right now- Hard to say that, that isn't a constant), this year will be one of the top analogs for future hurricane seasons with warm starting conditions. The final numbers will be used for future forecasts. I'm surprised how we're blowing out 150 years of data with this one storm, but it stresses how much warm SSTs and high OHC does play a role in Atlantic hurricane development, as there has been a linear correlation over the last 30 years. 

Also, regarding the new potential, remember how Lee blew out forecasts last year, making the after-the-fact bust skew much more angled upward with that one storm. We have similar SSTs this to year to last year, with a Weak La Nina vs Strong El Nino being the big difference. 

[nycwinter]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looking at the future, and not the past this time, 2024 will be analoged for warm waters and high OHC, just like 2005 is to this year. Beryl maintaining Cat 4+ for 84 hours is another analogous event for seasonal potentially favorable conditions for Atlantic hurricane seasons rolled forward. With a likely increase in El Nino's vs La Nina's in the next few decades and AMO not always being super positive (history says it runs in cycles but the general mid latitude warming across the globe is pretty significant right now- Hard to say that, that isn't a constant), this year will be one of the top analogs for future hurricane seasons with warm starting conditions. The final numbers will be used for future forecasts. I'm surprised how we're blowing out 150 years of data with this one storm, but it stresses how much warm SSTs and high OHC does play a role in Atlantic hurricane development, as there has been a linear correlation over the last 30 years. 

Also, regarding the new potential, remember how Lee blew out forecasts last year, making the after-the-fact bust skew much more angled upward with that one storm. We have similar SSTs this to year to last year, with a Weak La Nina vs Strong El Nino being the big difference. 

 2005 hurricane season was exceptional you had 6 major hurricanes 4 which were cat 5 storms two storms that were sub 900 pressure....

[NorthHillsWx]

Our ACE for the basin is now where it should be on August 27 with an active major hurricane ongoing…

[GaWx]

- The July Euro is forecasting ONI of ~-0.1C in ASO, which is a bit warmer than the June run.

- The Euro runs over the last 15++ years have averaged too warm. My educated guess is that July has averaged 0.2 too warm for ASO.

- Thus the implied bias corrected (bc) July Euro ASO ONI prog is for -0.3.

- The latest ONI-RONI is +0.61 and has only slowly been falling from earlier record peak of +0.66. So, it’s realistic to assume an ASO ONI-RONI still up at ~+0.5. This means the bc July Euro prog for ASO RONI is ~-0.8.

- Regarding implications for H season, I posted in late May that on avg the worst seasons for US H landfalls, especially NE Gulf to Carolinas, have been when ASO RONI was weak La Niña as opposed to either mod/strong Niña or cold neutral. This is also the case for the area from the Bahamas to Lesser Antilles. This was backed by maps that I saw elsewhere.

- Thus, the bc July Euro prog for ASO RONI of ~-0.8 would be ~the worst ASO RONI from the perspective of one not wanting a bad season. That doesn’t mean it will be bad though as not all with a weak Niña have been. These are just averages. In May when I first studied this, it was looking like ASO RONI would be below -1.0, which would have had not as bad implications for the SE US to E Caribbean.

[Maxwell03]

After Beryl, a lull? 

[Windspeed]

After Beryl, a lull? 

In short, yes. An intraseasonal period is modeled out beyond a few weeks with some westerly wave breaking and SAL plumes. Perhaps in a few weeks, there is something homegrown/SW Caribbean.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SSTs also aren't super above average in the tropics like they were a few months ago.. as the averages climbed, the deviation evened out a bit. 

All the heat is migrating to the N. Atlantic, where a strong High pressure is suppose to set up for the next few weeks continuing the warmth there.. 

[Windspeed]

SSTs also aren't super above average in the tropics like they were a few months ago.. as the averages climbed, the deviation evened out a bit. 

All the heat is migrating to the N. Atlantic, where a strong High pressure is suppose to set up for the next few weeks continuing the warmth there.. 

Azores ridge block-induced SPH cells should be cranking easterly low-mid level trades. ITCZ should be under a suppressive regime until late July/ early August. Not complaining; in need of a reset. SSTs will still be predominantly at mean or above normal in time for ASO. Even within a hyperactive season, there is a relatively confined period of lull. 2005 was pretty much dead between Emily and Katrina aside from some weaker central Atlantic TCs that got named and a weak BoC system into Mexico.

Edit: In hindsight, the 2005 lull was not exactly dead, and Franklin reached 60 kts in its brief cycle, but we didn't see much in the way of any substantial ACE producers. This isn't to say we won't have another significant TC between now and mid-August. But it's important to note that the last few hyperactive seasons didn't get started until their climatological norm.

Edit 2: I feel like I am correcting myself too much, but 2020 did feature a landfalling hurricane into, big surprise here, Texas! That was Hanna on July 26th. This was a GOM system that had an easterly wave as its source. However, it was more in line with climatological norms. So, to be specific, I want to state the MDR may remain in a lull until mid-August as that was the overall point of my mind when I typed above. It's been a long day.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

SSTs also aren't super above average in the tropics like they were a few months ago.. as the averages climbed, the deviation evened out a bit. 

All the heat is migrating to the N. Atlantic, where a strong High pressure is suppose to set up for the next few weeks continuing the warmth there.. 

could this result in a 2022 type season compared to what agencies were predicting?

[WxWatcher007]

I looked and you can see a SST decline across the basin using the TT time series analysis plots. That’s interesting. That said, SSTs are anomalously warm and OHC remains absurdly high in the MDR. I think the train is moving along on a hyperactive season. 

[FPizz]

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

 

They updated

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

46 minutes ago, FPizz said:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

 

They updated

 

Those analog years bro

Not looking good

[WxWatcher007]

Folks this is a close to a seasonal hyperactive forecast lock as you can get. The only hopes are more stability/SAL driven into the basin by vigorous waves in August and weak Atlantic ridging/active early ECONUS troughing in September leading through October providing a highway for recurves. 

I’m not saying 1933 is walking through the door, but Beryl becoming a long track 5 was the canary in the coal mine, and the canary just passed out. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Those analog years bro

Not looking good

Yeah some monster seasons there.  though most of us have already seen the analogs, I pulled them from the full forecast

Table 12: Analog years for 2024 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.

Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC

1886 12 84.25 10 49.50 4 4.50 166.2 155.3

1926 11 86.75 8 58.50 6 22.75 229.6 230.3

1933 20 125.25 11 57.00 6 21.75 258.6 263.1

1995 19 120.50 11 60.25 5 11.75 227.4 221.3

2005 28 126.25 15 49.75 7 17.50 245.3 276.7

2010 19 89.50 12 38.50 5 11.00 165.5 196.4

2020 30 122.75 14 35.25 7 8.25 180.4 235.5

Average 19.9 107.9 11.6 49.8 5.7 13.9 217.8 237.2 2024

Forecast 25 125 12 50 6 16 230 240

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Those analog years bro

Not looking good

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020

Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+):

-1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June!

-1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE

-1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE

-1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE

-2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE

-2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H

-2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf

So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4.

 Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks for the rest of 2024 is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

[Windspeed]

Their forecast of 140 ACE west of 60° longitude is pretty much a dead giveaway that you'd expect an ugly season for the Caribbean and SE CONUS. The pattern screams either central American landfalls or late recurves during ASO. We have potential drought conditions developing in the inter-SE region for August and September. Bermuda ridging and westward extension of the Azores SPH is already having its way. The relief may only come from landfalling TCs. You'd hope that all of them would just be weaker systems for beneficial rain. But you'd expect some of those would unfortunately be hurricane strikes. I agree that Beryl is likely a harbinger of things to come.

[gymengineer]

The pre-naming era seasons on that list had absolutely legendary storms.

1886: The 925-mb landfall Indianola Hurricane caused the TX county seat to be abandoned after being destroyed.

1926: The Great Miami Hurricane, repeated, would be the most expensive hurricane in US history by far. 

1933: Imagine the tracking pandemonium on this board for two major hurricane landfalls only a day apart in FL and TX.
Also, the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane turned Assateague into an island and created a new Ocean City, MD, inlet. 

[Windspeed]

The latest rainfall anomaly by the ECMWF for ASO from Ben Noll's site. You'd not expect to see a more ominous pattern / setup for TCs being driven west. Ridging is in place, so frontal / trough induced precipitation in the CONUS interior is below normal. This not only smells of a cool neutral ENSO / La Niña, but also suggests long-tracking TCs with late recurves.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The latest rainfall anomaly by the ECMWF for ASO from Ben Noll's site. You'd not expect to see a more ominous pattern / setup for TCs being driven west. Ridging is in place, so frontal / trough induced precipitation in the CONUS intererior is below normal. This not only smells of a cool neutral ENSO / La Niña, but also suggests long-tracking TCs with late recurves.

 

Yikes. That is…robust…

[cptcatz]

I get the hyperactive season with big hurricanes in ASO but I just don't see how we get to 25 named storms with 3 in the books and a dead July on the horizon.  Going into August, 2005 had 7 named storms and 2020 had 9.  To get those big named storm numbers, you need a lot of June/July slop.

[olafminesaw]

48 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I get the hyperactive season with big hurricanes in ASO but I just don't see how we get to 25 named storms with 3 in the books and a dead July on the horizon.  Going into August, 2005 had 7 named storms and 2020 had 9.  To get those big named storm numbers, you need a lot of June/July slop.

I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

I get the hyperactive season with big hurricanes in ASO but I just don't see how we get to 25 named storms with 3 in the books and a dead July on the horizon.  Going into August, 2005 had 7 named storms and 2020 had 9.  To get those big named storm numbers, you need a lot of June/July slop.

 2005 and 2020 both had 21 NS after July. 2024 is at 3 now. Even IF July had no more storms, having 21 more would make 24.

 Of course there could easily be one or more NS this month as 3 weeks is a near eternity. To illustrate better, here was a TWO from June 24th, which suggested no more NS in June vs the two that actually occurred:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

 The first TWO even mentioning the AEW that lead to Beryl wasn’t til the one from 8 PM on June 25th and even that was only at 20% over the subsequent 7 days:

A tropical wave centered a couple of hundred miles south of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible 
this weekend and into early next week while it moves generally 
westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 
20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[bigtenfan]

12 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The latest rainfall anomaly by the ECMWF for ASO from Ben Noll's site. You'd not expect to see a more ominous pattern / setup for TCs being driven west. Ridging is in place, so frontal / trough induced precipitation in the CONUS interior is below normal. This not only smells of a cool neutral ENSO / La Niña, but also suggests long-tracking TCs with late recurves.

What i don't understand about that map is the abnormally dry area just inland from the Gulf Coast, Are they saying that there will be little or no inland rainfall from all of the storms that that this map would indicate in the GOM especially the eastern GOM?

[WxWatcher007]

If you’re looking for a small wrench—here’s more detail on the SAL/stability potential. That said, even this doesn’t slow things down much.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon flights are scheduled for tomorrow in case the area off the SE coast wants to get frisky. Currently getting blasted by shear.